Looks like where I live, deaths are more closely associated with big, wide, fast roads.
It's ironic that drivers get frustrated by smaller, narrower streets as not feeling very safe, but that uncomfortable feeling 1) slows people down and 2) keeps them on their toes in terms of looking out for hazards rather than feeling ok with driving fast and not paying as much attention.
I used to be a volunteer firefighter and I see some of the fatalities (but not all) on this map. Looking at one of them some of the information is quite accurate (type of accident, what caused it, age of person) while other information is not at all accurate (number of people in the car, if a seatbelt was in use). It's curious how some fairly important pieces of data can be quite wrong.
data sources are notoriously bad everywhere human entry is the processs
When I was in highschool I had to fill out a survey about my experiences with substances. I remember getting a laugh out of lying on the survey. Always take any self reported questionnaire results with a large grain of salt.
I too was a “daily cocaine user” in 6th grade…
How many Americans think chocolate milk comes from brown cows? I’d wager almost every single person who answers in the affirmative really just thinks it’s the funnier answer.
I'm convinced this is the source of flat earth conspiracies.
I suspect there are a vanishingly small number of individuals who believe flat earth, and the rest are just doing it for the lulz.
That is what you hope, but do you know how many people believed in the Q conspiracy? Chemtrails? Reptiloids? Bill Gates using the vaccination to control everyone through a microchip? It is the same ballpark.
I wish those people pushing this, were doing it just for the lulz. But mostly they are serious.
What I want to know is why Bill Gates got stuck with the microchip conspiracy theory when Elon Musk regularly has press conferences about the progress his team is making with actual brain microchips.
That is simple, because Bill Gates did talk about a microchip for people in an interview, but just an RFID chip, to keep track of the vaccinations. Also his foundation is doing vaccinations big scale. Even without foreign hostile agencies making disinformation, it is easy seeing crackpots mixing it all up.
And this is just the start.
LLMs are very good at mixing information to produce bullshit.
No worries, we can ask another LLM for verification.
Ah, that makes a decent amount of sense.
Musk makes it optional, Bill Gates required it (vaccination, presumably including the chip) of everyone.
I'm convinced that chemtrails came from a stoner watching some variation of How planes fly / aeronautics at 3am and heard chemtrails in place of contrails and we are now forever stuck with it.
But the earth is visibly not flat! Clearly we live in a Dyson sphere.
Of course it is flat! It's just the coordinate system that is curved. ;)
Behind the Curve is a good documentary about flat earthers. A lot of them seem to believe it because it gives them a sense that they have figured something out that others haven't. It makes them feel special.
Others believe it, or at least continue to believe, because they find a community and connection with other believers.
Sounds remarkably similar to mainstream religions in the U.S.
You're missing an important third group: people making money pushing these beliefs. Themselves, they likely don't believe it - but they know this type of "content" creates strong "engagement".
You might be surprised...
Yeah, according to certain studies, most of my 6th grade class has stinky cheese farts and did moderate to heavy cocaine use in the morning.
Do cocaine as the morning pick-me-up and then some heroin in the evening to help you sleep.
This is why nutrition research is extremely confusing and contradictory often. I worked in a nutrition department and the amount of post menopausal obese women in our knee studies that said they just ate a half cup of green beans that day is astounding.
Now try to use data that flawed to make assumptions over a lifespan about human health. About the only studies I truly believe are the ones where people are at a facility and all food is provided to them and tracked.
My favourite example of this is that the number of condoms used in the USA, according to surveys, is dramatically higher than the number of condoms sold in the USA.
In surveys the amount of liquor consumed is often about half the amount of liquor that is sold.
Yeah, that's because it's assumed that the other half consumed is non-registered moonshine. I don't get how that would apply to condoms, though.
Perhaps they are using them more than once.
Or they are confusing imagination of how much they would like to have sex with reality. Or they feel the social pressure, to boast themself. Sexual activity is kind of a primitive success metric. Reporting low numbers means reporting low success ..
Ew.
I lived in one of those food study centers after college. Most people there were pretty diligent about sticking to the program, but there was a big scandal when one guy was kicked out after discovering extensive cheating and several papers had to be retracted.
We were allowed out - I had a full time job, but couldn't eat or drink any food not provided by the center (we took a radio-isotope tracer with food, and had to collect our poop). It was quite interesting :_)
what was the consequence if you did eat outside food?
If the researchers found out then you would be eliminated from the study and no longer paid (and given free food) as a research subject.
You were just contributing to the Lizardman’s Constant :)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Slate_Star_Code...
Pew Research found that 24% of Hispanic adults are licensed to operate a SSGN submarine: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/05/online-op...
The margins of error on online opt-in polls are massive.
There's an Austria paper that looked into the accident cause "speeding" (nicht angepasste Geschwindigkeit) means across the german-speaking countries. The results boiled down to "it depends" on the officer typing in the data as there aren't any reviews or such. There's good data on other accident aspects like the seat-belt-usage you mentioned (and it's shocking how many people die because they are too lazy to use their seat-belt) but those aren't down to subjective judgement on the spot.
Good data is needed as a few accident causes do tend to be common in certain road/location conditions and those can be fixed. For example while the total number of accidents on train crossing is low (15~20 fatalities per year) in Austria, all of them are the driver's fault and almost all (except for massive idiot drivers) can be fixed by installing automatic gates on all crossings.
Do you still have railroad crossings without automated gates? If yes, why? Cultural resistance?
Why do you need gates? No sane person will try to cross on the red light.
TikTokers will.
What is the problem then?
This is an educational video from Poland ;-) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeXzUGfNLWo
Warning: only click that link if you want to see a cyclist get hit by a train
I've seen people cross on red lights. Sometimes it's the impatient person who has to get through as it's closing.
Sometimes it's the impatient person who is tired of waiting as the signal has been going for minutes and there's no other evidence of a train.
Sometimes it's the inattentive person following the car in front.
Gates help the third person most. I haven't seen many crossings without gates, but they're a lot easier to miss than a gate.
Protecting people from a train collision has benefits for the train system as well. A collision causes confusion and delay and may damage the rolling stock or even the rails and could cause injuries and the operators likely need PTO. So it's rational to reduce collisions regardless of opinions about the choices of the participants.
There are a lot of insane drivers.
I live on the same block as a urban street level crossings that just have lights. People routinely cut through the light. That line just goes to the factories so the trains are going pretty slow, or sometimes stop on the signal. There is a gated crossing a little further down the same street for a thoroughfare and cars routinely race the gate to avoid waiting for the train there too.
One could argue all those people are insane, but there are a lot of them.
In Austria a big reason are old rural rail lines. It’s not trivial to install automated gates without having to remove some stops or keeping the gates down for very extended periods of time.
They are also not entirely safe because people are idiots and get stuck without understanding that they can actually push through the barrier.
Britain has at least four types of crossing.
Ones with nothing except signs to stop, look and listen. You're most likely to find this while hiking, as a footpath crossing.
Flashing lights and beeps.
Half barriers, which only cover half the road (one lane in each direction). These are my automatic. Drivers can't get trapped.
Full barriers. These all have CCTV, and the train won't get a "green" until the signaller has seen both barriers close, and that no one is in the middle. These are used in cities and other busy places.
One other fun type are the user operated gates. Normal farm gates on both sides of the railway, with a red/green aspect light telling you if it is safe to open the gate. Once you've driven through you have to stop and then close the gates. Last time I used one of them, by the time I walked back to close the first gate the signal had gone red so I waited.
We also still have some full barrier crossings operated by a signalman near me. There's something pleasing about that.
They are also not entirely safe because people are idiots and get stuck without understanding that they can actually push through the barrier.
Most of the barriers I see in the US are one sided - they don't let you drive on to the tracks, but there's no barrier that prevents you from leaving.
Germany has a lot of them on mostly remote, rarely serviced lines that see only a small number of regional trains per day. Main reason is cost to upgrade weighed against the (relatively) low risk of incidents because of low amount of traffic on both the train route and the crossing road.
Installing automatic gates at crossings can fix (almost) 15~20 fatalities a year there? I've seen at least double-digit traffic deaths in my life, 4 of which I've watched happen and can vividly recollect, here in the USA. Installing infrastructure to prevent deaths seems like a no-brainer if you live in a country that supposedly cares.
It's apparently not a no-brainer here -- two of the lethal accidents I've witnessed [one involving ripping the door off a car with the help of some kind stangers, to get someone out of a literally flaming wreck] would have been entirely avoided by a simple traffic circle. The most grizzly one I remember could likely (it seems to me; I'm not a traffic...engineer?) have been avoided by not having a low-traffic on-ramp connect directly to a major highway, when there was a clearly-denoted on-ramp a quarter-mile away. Seeing another human with their head 20ft away leaves a bit of an impression on a child.
I always find it funny when people say "you can't put a price on a human life" because this is exactly what traffic engineers do on a daily basis.
I don't know what the exact figure is but there's a number where below that improvements won't be made.
It sounds bad but at the end of the day resources aren't unlimited - $1 spent on road safety improvements is $1 that can't go healthcare, law enforcement, schools, military etc.
At some point spending millions of dollars to probably save one life isn't worth it
This is true, but the problem is that there is so much low-hanging fruit here like painting new lines, adding cheap concrete barriers, or installing elevated crosswalks.
The price is far far less than whatever the price of a human life is. The reason they are not implemented is not cost, but because people here consider it their god-given right to drive as quickly and aggressively as they want.
The reason they are not implemented is not cost, but because people here consider it their god-given right to drive as quickly and aggressively as they want.
As an amendment to this: People in many western countries tend to do this.
Writing from Germany with, e.g., speed limits on some high ways being a broken promise from the last election.
Yep. A major arterial in my city is very obviously too wide for the traffic it carries, even during rush hour. I don't remember the exact number, but a study a few years ago found that the average speed was something like 12 MPH above the posted limit. People completely lost their shit when it was proposed to narrow it and put in bike lanes (the bike lanes weren't the point, but people were cycling on the sidewalk to avoid the impatient/distracted/aggressive drivers, and it would have been silly to not use the space for anything at all).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life#United_States
The value of life in the United States
The following estimates have been applied to the value of life. The estimates are either for one year of additional life or for the statistical value of a single life.
- $50,000 per year of quality life (the "dialysis standard",[38] which had been a de facto international standard most private and government-run health insurance plans worldwide use to determine whether to cover a new medical procedure)[39]
- $129,000 per year of quality life (an update to the "dialysis standard")[40][39]
- $7.5 million (Federal Emergency Management Agency, Jul. 2020)[5]
- $9.1 million (Environmental Protection Agency, 2010)[41]
- $9.2 million (Department of Transportation, 2014)[42]
- $9.6 million (Department of Transportation, Aug. 2016)[43]
- $12.5 million (Department of Transportation, 2022)[44]
It’s worth pointing out that these numbers don’t exactly represent either of the things that the parent comment talked about. These are the statistical economic effect of people dying on average, but this is not meant to be taken as putting a number on all the value of human life. Note the DOT doesn’t call it the “value of life”, they call it the “value of a statistical life (VSL)” in an attempt to help distinguish between those two different ideas.
“This conventional terminology has often provoked misunderstanding on the part of both the public and decision-makers. What is involved is not the valuation of life as such, but the valuation of reductions in risks.”
https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2021-03/D...
Additionally, these numbers do not represent the threshold for whether a given proposal for roads is undertaken. They are used to inform the process, along with other relevant factors. That ‘Guidance’ like just above is interesting reading, they take time to point out that neither the economic data nor the risk data is perfect. (Perhaps that was obvious, but it’s good to know they recognize that fact officially in their analyses.)
The VSL for 2023 is 13.2 million, and one might assume based on the recent trend that it’s probably around ~$14M for this year. It’s good for our personal safety the higher their VSL estimate goes, but as parent noted, bad for our taxpayer pocketbooks, so we try to balance those forces. I know government processes can look bureaucratic and strange from the outside, and seem like a big machine we don’t control, but ultimately we do decide as a society how much we’re willing to pay to keep ourselves safe; public sentiment and tax/anti-tax pressures do have a massive influence in what gets done.
https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-...
It doesn't seem inconsistent to say "you can't put a price on a human life" and also believe that it's possible to calculate the economic impact of a human death.
For example, saying that a particular individual's life is worthless is very different from saying they have no dependents.
How many crossings without automatic gates are there, vs how many fatalities at those crossings, and how many people cross at those crossings at all? When you remember that other important things to spend money on also exist, the math probably works out for leaving many of the rarely used crossings as they are. In America, there are a few hundred thousand crossings and only a few hundred deaths. Most of those deaths are concentrated at a relatively small number of crossings, while most of the crossings have very infrequent traffic across them.
It's the same kind of logic that has most train tracks not put behind fences. In populated areas where lots of people roam around, putting a fence up next to the track helps keep people off the track. But in most of the country, the population is too sparse and people being on the track too infrequent for anybody to rationally prioritize putting fence up alongside all the track. Half a billion dollars worth of fence to save maybe a few dozen lives just isn't going to fly when there are schools to fund, old lead water mains to replace, bridges to repair, NASA probes to Uranus, etc etc.
There's a thing that happens where people get "" trapped"" by automatic crossing gates. They get their car on the tracks as the gate closes in front and behind them. The gates are very weak so they could drive right through, but some sort of mental block often prevents this and so they stay there with their car on the tracks, sometimes not even thinking to get out of the car.
I guess it goes to show that stupid finds a way.
I wonder why the gates aren’t designed so that they only present a barrier on the entry side of the track, and not the exit side of the track?
...because people then drive onto the wrong side of the road to drive around the barriers.
Yes, some people are that dumb.
They sometimes are but then it is easy to go around them
I would believe this is mostly due to panic rather than being stupid. At some point, for many people, your logical brain stops working.
I think it's a lack of panic that does it. In that moment they're afraid of causing property damage and they aren't thinking about their own imminent demise. Probably because they see the gate before they see the train, and once they start thinking about the gate in front of them they get tunnel vision and struggle to switch focus to the more important thing coming at them from the side.
Or maybe a lot of this is intentional, sadly?
it's shocking how many people die because they are too lazy to use their seat-belt
It’s hard to explain to people they can only ever be in a single accident in which they’re not wearing their seatbelt.
Mostly they proclaim it’s fine, because they’re never in any accidents, and they drive safe anyway.
It's curious how some fairly important pieces of data can be quite wrong.
I was nearly killed by a driver who disregarded the law and the police officer intentionally disabled his bodycam when interviewing a key witness, never questioned me, let the driver off with no tickets for his violations, and submitted a report with factual inaccuracies. Crooked cops don't have an interest in reporting the truth.
I get so angry when I ready the reports, and they mostly talk about the victim. "The pedestrian was wearing dark clothing", "the bicyclist wasn't wearing a helmet" (like that would've avoided the accident?), etc.
Of course, the victim is most likely being transported away in an ambulance or even dead, so they got little say. And the offender can paint the story with their picture: "the sun was low and blinding", "the cyclist came in at high speed" (probably a third of the car..), etc.
So that's what the report will say.
I’m a little confused at the assertion here. What is happening that shouldn’t be happening, and what should be changed?
Should they presume malice, and discount any reference to circumstance? What if the circumstances were actually causal (which one would hope so, otherwise there are far more murderous sociopaths than anyone would have guessed) how should we parse the difference, and how will we identify potential hazards?
Presumably, from the cyclist’s perspective, the story will almost always go like this: “I was riding my bicycle in the correct fashion, in the appropriate lane, equipped with proper safety equipment, and then BAM! They came out of nowhere,” because if they had an opportunity to see the oncoming vehicle, judge whether it’s being operated safely, see where the driver’s attention is focused, and evaluate whether the driver’s awareness has or has not been compromised by the prevailing conditions—one would hope they could have avoided the crash in that space of time.
I've been in a few close calls, and in every one the driver was not paying full attention to the road and (nearly) swerved into someone riding a bicycle.
But reporters use such sympathetic language describing the negligent driver.
As a pedestrian in a large city, I have been nearly run over by cyclists a few times, but I don't generalize from that though.
It's part of a wider trend where drivers are given the benefit of the doubt at a societal level: https://www.npr.org/sections/publiceditor/2023/09/07/1198102...
The data here is processed from NHTSA's FARS database. When someone dies in an accident, it gets input into a STATE reporting system, and FARS is manufactured by analyzing each state's individual record system. The feds consolidate all this data and publish a unified dataset annually. They say it's "a lot cheaper and just as good as collecting it themselves"
Additional errors are potentially produced from my own processing of the federal data, but those will be rooted out over time. Project being OS will hopefully help with that.
Thanks for this background. What's the best way to download your data, or the feds data?
Just go to the NHTSA FARS website.. here's the FTP:
https://www.nhtsa.gov/file-downloads?p=nhtsa/downloads/FARS/
Thank you, that is very useful.
In fact, the author of the website "I mapped almost every.." might want to add references to the data sources for credibility and less of a "spam" look. How about an About page.
The splash photos on that website says it all.
I noticed seemingly all deaths in Manhattan are labeled as having occurred in flushing, a nearby neighborhood. Perhaps an off by one error?
If you need help merging additional data sources, this project might be able to assist. I know the folks, and they are motivated to deliver open data.
Can I a real question? How do personally deal with the trauma of responding to an accident with death(s)? I don't have the guts to do a job like that.
Not the original commenter, but as a volunteer firefighter and EMT it is something everyone has to figure out for themselves.
There's tools like therapy, CISM, CBT, humor, and the support of your buddies. Too often there's drink, pills, and suicide. It's not a particularly widespread detail, but suicide is the largest killer of firefighters by a large margin. I think that is a symptom of putting too much work and pressure on too few people.
I have found CBT, exercise, fasting, and daily yoga help keep stress and depression at bay for me.
I also am lucky to be a volunteer, so I can afford to skip as many calls as I want after an upsetting call. The career folks I know have it much much worse, because they might be on a horrible call but if they want to get paid they have to keep working. They might have an entire 24hr shift with several troubling calls back to back.
I used to think all fire and ambulance should be paid career. However, there's an important side effect of a larger group of volunteers sharing the burden. If you see too much to handle, you can take off all the time you need to recover. You aren't trapped by the job into witnessing more than you can handle. My wife recently was on an ambulance call that troubled her. She has taken a few weeks off from ambulance to decompress.
That being said, volunteerism is seriously struggling in America. If you live in the 70% of America that is served by volunteers, it is likely your local is extremely understaffed. Too many companies only have a small handful of firefighters who still show up, and those heroes aren't "taking time off" to recover, because if they do, the engine doesn't move. Too much of the country is overly reliant on volunteers but isn't showing up to be a volunteer to share the load. It's a socialist program, but there aren't enough people showing up to share the work, so it's collapsing.
And just paying folks to do this full time comes with very real increased tax burden and acute trauma on those individuals. Paying career staff isn't cheap.
If you live in an area that is served by volunteers, please seriously consider volunteering yourself. A lot of people on this site are young and physically able to volunteer. Tech folks are often well situated to volunteer, as we are more likely to be financially stable, have flexibility to dip for a call if it's urgent, often work remote, and sometimes would really benefit from getting out in the sunshine and meeting folks. Also it's so rewarding to do something so real after a big day of mental labor.
In the volunteer service you don't ever have to do something if you don't feel comfortable with it. If you show up to a call and you don't want to go inside the building you don't have to. Plenty of work is needed outside of a structure fire. If the call comes and you're too tired or busy, no big deal. I only make ~20% of my local calls, and that is high for my company. I've said "no way" to my officer before, and he reconsidered or found someone else.
You also don't have to be in "perfect shape". I thought they were going to be making me do crazy fitness tests to join like in the movies. Then I realized, we are so desperate for help we'll take anyone if your doctor will sign a form saying you're fit for duty. We've got members who are 200lb overweight, members who weigh 100lb, need glasses, some are 14, and some members who are over 70. Some can't wear an air pack so they do fire ground support work outside. Kids under 18 and folks who haven't yet gone to fire school aren't legally allowed inside a structure fire anyway. If you want to show up and put on gear, we've got work for you. There's so much work, it's so hard, and so few show up that anyone who does is a help.
It can be extremely rewarding to be a first responder in a small town. We only have 4k residents in my local, and I like getting to meet them and help them.
After just a few years I can't go to the grocery store without waving to half a dozen people. My calendar is filling up with invites to backyard BBQs, music jam sessions, a pie baking competition club, DnD games, a computer club, and a lifting club, all discovered through just meeting cool local folks. Between volunteering and regularly visiting our local busy coffeeshop at peak "sit around and chat" times, I'm feeling connected to a community in a way I thought only happens in movies and TV.
Definitely reach out to me if you ever want to talk about it. I'll happily answer any questions you have. I will say I'm kicking myself for not joining sooner. For eight years I was next to an amazing firehouse and never knew!
There's tools like therapy, CISM, CBT, humor, and the support of your buddies.
EMT, Paramedic, trainer of both.... my understanding is that CISM has been largely discredited. Maybe its a misapplication, a "lock you all in a room until everyone has talked/cried about it", but still.
Thankfully, in the PNW, many many departments have contracts with therapists. Some near me even have mental health professionals as full time employees.
The other, perhaps bigger reality for me is this:
It's not the trauma calls that get to you - in the end we're all just blood and tissue. It's the emotional calls. The CSA calls. SIDS. Elder neglect.
suicide is the largest killer of firefighters by a large margin
While it seems obvious, is this not similar to the ratio for all people in the age group that are firefighters (roughly 20-50 ish)?
Most people 40 years of age do not suddenly drop dead, so they’re much more likely to die by suicide.
I was an EMT in the Los Angeles area for four years, and then in the Seattle area for four years. I developed the mindset that even if the patient died, we (the firefighters/EMTs/paramedics) had at least given them a chance to live that they would not have had without us. That helped soften the blow of the deaths.
That strategy was less effective for calls where the patient was declared dead on scene, and so no treatment was possible. I still remember each of those calls. Fortunately, I was never traumatized by them, in a PTSD sense. Rather, I learned the lesson of realizing how easily I, or one of my loved ones, can simply disappear one day; so I learned to make sure they all know that I love them, and to not take their presence in my life for granted.
Yeah, I checked one near me and it said EMS arrived 1 minute after being notified and victim was transported via EMS air. Time to arrive at hospital seems reasonable for an air transport from that spot though. So I guess the helicopter just happened to be idly hovering over the van at the time it went off the embankment?
Ground EMS could have arrived in 1 minute if they were already nearby. Just because the patient was transported by air doesn't necessarily mean that the helicopter unit was first to arrive.
Even if the helicopter is overhead for a planned drill you can't land it in a minute. 30 years ago if my first cpr class the teacher said it was typically 45 minutes from when you call - which is why they (in a big city where a level 1 trauma hospitial is at most a 30 minute drive away) almost never call for air help.
Any idea what spicifly might be the possible causes for data errors? Like is every state using the exact same form? Are are people who filled them out trained how to do so correctly?
It's not just states, it's every law enforcement jurisdiction, which then gives their data to the state, which then standardizes it. In turn, it appears the states aggregate it at the federal level. In my mid-size city, jurisdictions that operate here include the city police, county sheriff, university police, state police and Department of Natural Resources law enforcement.
At least in the Indiana, the quality of this data... varies widely. Coordinates don't always match reality, the street names can't always be geocoded, sometimes the timestamps don't even parse as valid dates.
I talked to a city staffer here whose job largely involves cleaning up this data. But not in a permanent sense. They are using the aggregate data handed down from the state, and they are cleaning a local copy. Then next year or next month, they get more data and have to re-merge or re-do their fixes because their fixes aren't upstream, and have originated from another jurisdiction.
The whole system needs improvement!
I was looking at an incident in my neighborhood. In our city, we have frequent incidents of elderly drivers killing pedestrians in motor vehicles. The incident in our neighborhood did not show a driver age but did show the pedestrian age. I cannot imagine why the driver age would not have been recorded in an incident like that (but their height and weight were).
In your neighbourhood you probably have frequent incidents of elderly drivers of motor vehicles killing pedestrians.
I used to scrape the calls for service for my local PD, and the inaccuracies were considerable. Of course there were typos in addresses or cross-streets, but there were also inaccuracies with how the incident was classified (for example, a former coworker and friend said his neighbor called the cops on him in the middle of the night one day- I looked it up and it was classified as a domestic disturbance rather than a noise complaint).
Some records, like those involving child abuse, don’t show on their calls for service website at all, so that’s an entire group of data that we the public just don’t get to know about.
Government data is notorious for being dirty and inaccurate.
I had a similar, awful curiosity. Looked up the death of a friend. All of the details I ever learned (speeding, ran off road, jumped curb, hit a tree) are listed accurately here.
The claim that only 1 out of 5 deaths is even recorded on this map is sobering.
Not loading right now, but if it doesn't already include it, would love to see this data normalized by the amount of vehicle traffic each location has, to get a better sense for which locations are dangerous vs just busy.
I don't think that's right. We shouldn't think of death in terms of "deaths per mile" because human costs aren't amortized per mile. Every death is a death. Killing someone then driving in circles shouldn't make you a less dangerous driver.
I don't think it should be thought of as "deaths per mile" but rather "deaths per car passing by" which allows one to compare the relative danger of driving in different locations.
This implies that the only road users are cars and that vehicle volume is fixed. Factors like vehicle speed, modal mix, lane widths, and parking geometry all affect the safety profile of a street. "Cars passing by" is too lossy a metric to be relevant. Decreasing vehicle volume is always an option.
It is definitely not too lossy to be valuable.
Imagine a town that has 100 cars in it and 10 traffic deaths per year vs a town that has 10,000 cars in it and also 10 traffic deaths per year. Both towns have the same population. Without any sort of normalization the towns look the same, but clearly very different things are going on in those scenarios and a per mile or per car or whatnot will help you identify that. Obviously it doesn't give you any sort of root cause but it is an indicator that a deeper investigation is needed.
Then just note the vehicle volume and don't divide your deaths by volume? When you divide your deaths by volume you're implying that there's some value in a metric that amortizes deaths by vehicle volumes. Automobile volume is just one of several variables and simplifying this equation is why the US has a much higher traffic crash and fatality rate than any other developed country in the world.
What is the point of "noting" and not dividing? Sure, you can normalize by all sorts of different metrics. That doesn't mean you shouldn't normalize at all.
Perhaps we should think in terms of "lifespan lost to traffic accidents vs lifespan lost to traffic delays"...
Is this a zero sum? Can't we just have transit and both are solved?
No? It's just a hard-to-measure curve.
By not designing everything around car drivers, it's possible to have such things as "15-minute cities" where the aim is to have amenities withing a 15 minute walk or cycle. That reduces traffic delays as there'll be more people choosing to walk/cycle, plus the car journeys will be much shorter. They also reduce traffic collisions ("accidents" is a loaded term and should not be used for RTCs as it implies no fault), so it's really a win-win.
Nonsense. Mostly because nobody actually "kills someone and then drives in circles".
Human life being valuable does not change that certain activities carry a certain amount of risk, and so of course the more you do that activity the more likelihood the risk manifests. It is valuable information to know if one area has a hugely disproportionate number of traffic deaths compared to overall traffic metrics.
e.g. let's say I'm picking between two cities for my next job. Every day I will drive 25 miles to work, regardless of which city I choose. I look at the stats and see that in X city, there is 1 traffic death per 10,000,000 miles driven. In Y city, there is 1 traffic death per 100,000 miles. Therefore if I live in Y city I am 100x more likely to be involved in a fatal traffic accident. That is very relevant info to me and doesn't cheapen the value of human life at all.
Of course "driving in circles" is an exaggeration, but I think they're trying to say that if a place is structured to encourage lots of mileage (maybe there are things with relatively little utility, like surface parking, causing destinations to be very spread out; maybe there's no public transit option so more people are driving), then there will be more fatalities at a given per-mile rate. If you optimize _purely_ for the per-mile rate you might be missing out on ways to reduce fatalities by reducing mileage.
Sure, it's not perfect, but it is clearly better than not normalizing at all, which is what OP was arguing for instead.
OK holy jeez I think I got the server back up. We now have 8X the ram and I'm not sure how, but we broke postgres....
Not to sure how your backend is set up, but it looks like you're generating GeoJSON on the fly and the JSON serialization for this amount of data can be slow.
In typical HN fashion, I would suggest looking into using Tippecanoe to generate some vector tiles of the data and host that on S3. Then the DB can fall back to performing simple lookups via the accident ID. Filtering by time will need to move to the frontend, but that should be fine (if not, look into clustering the data at further zoom levels).
This is very helpful
You could also take a look at PostGIS to do geospatial queries (if needed). And in the past I’ve used node-mapnik to render vector/image map tiles. You can indeed host and cache them effectively on S3.
I've built quite a few open source mapping projects myself using Tippecanoe and other tools. Feel free to email me if you want help setting this up!
I mapped almost every USA traffic death in the 21st century
Is your server on that list?
j/k, I’m sorry, I’ll see myself out XD
I'm not a fan of cheap puns, but that was excellent.
Remember to increase the buffer pool size to use that ram!
godspeed, soldier
I was trying out different time periods (comparing 2003-2013 to 2013-2023, to see a rough trend), and I noticed that every click to change the year by one seemed to generate a refresh. Perhaps it would help to lower the load if you change the date selector widget to only refresh after the date selector is closed.
Postgres didn't look both ways before stepping off the curb.
You’ve had some other recommendations already but I’d suggest also looking into FlatGeobuf [0] for this use case. Have a look at the MapLibre example with a 12GB example [1]. You don’t need a server at all (unlike MBTiles) and will be able to load far more points at once than your current solution. Can easily generate it with QGIS/GDAL/PostGIS. Not sure what your plans are for the project but would be happy to donate some time to get something like that working.
Strong work. Looking forward to / dreading the update with the 2023 and 2024 data that I've been more involved with. RIP to all of the young people in their late teens and 20s who made the mistake of using a road for anything other than driving. RIP to the older folks who got smoked just crossing the street. RIP to everyone else who didn't deserve to go. Hopefully there is traffic calming and reliable, frequent public transit in heaven.
Unfortunately this dataset doesn't include the, probably more frequent, severe TBIs. Surely wouldn't take many patients for the cost of a hemicraniectomy, 2 week neuro-ICU stay, trach/peg, and long term acute care stay to equal the cost of a few measures to slow drivers down. Not to mention lost earning/tax potential. Too bad it's not from the same budget.
Wear your seatbelt and a helmet and hopefully you can avoid the pain of your family having to have a surprise end-of-life discussion with me.
Have you considered the impact of traffic calming measures on emergency services? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9922345/#:~:tex....
Honestly speaking, that's an incredibly difficult issue to try and optimize for. There are a ton of different measures you could implement to try and improve ambulance travel times, but they're the same street design choices that we know drastically increase accident rates and fatalities for drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians alike.
Wider travel lanes on normal streets? More signalized intersections with overrides for emergency services instead of roundabouts, stop signs, or other measures meant to decrease intersection accidents and fatalities? Removal of speed bumps, raised pedestrian crosswalks, etc.? Additional lanes so ambulances have space to pass other cars?
Sure, they could all ostensibly improve ambulance travel times. But they'd do so by dramatically increasing the number of fatalities on our streets. Not to mention the workload on those same emergency services. So while it can make sense to consider the impact on those services, they probably shouldn't be the driving factor. Or even a main one.
On the other hand, even if speed bumps and other measures cause minor delays, other changes might be able to balance them out. Dedicated bus lanes, for example, are basically exclusive express lanes you could choose to route emergency service vehicles down with potentially significant time savings.
In the Netherlands we have a completely seperated bus network. No speedbumps, traffic light priority and audible cue at the intersection. Works pretty well for emergency services.
There are plenty of traffic calming measures that aren't speed bumps
Just have emergency services use the bus lane?
And if there isn't one, your problem isn't traffic calming, your problem is the lack of bus lane
Have you considered the impact on emergency services of encouraging drivers to go as fast as they can whilst not paying sufficient attention?
Car helmets should be a thing
There would be unintended consequences from car helmets.
Maybe they would interfere with looking over your shoulder.
Maybe, but maybe not? Even if the data showed it was a huge life saving factor, I can't see helmet usage being enthusiastically adopted.
Idk if it’s me but I’ve noticed a lot of crashed cars idk if it’s the times or just one of those things you notice
RIP fr fr
Am I the only person who spent a minute trying to scroll, trying to click, switching to a different browser, thinking the site was broken, checking back at HN to see what people said, and only then happening to mouse over the title and seeing that it got an underline and was a link?
Could you share how many times your comment was upvoted?
Over 40 so far, so I'm definitely not the only one :-/
Yes, but add touch-only device with no hover state indicator.
Without this comment I would have had zero ability to discover that interaction was required.
Ah, good point and you have my (extra) sympathy.
No you're not, your comment helped me understand.
Yeah, it's that weird thing where someone will put an enormous amount of effort into a piece of work, then skimp on the "presenting this to the world" part because maybe they don't find that bit interesting.
I saw this post a couple hours ago, thought the service was down and now I read this haha (no hover state on my phone :()
Same
Ok y'all I upgraded my linode to twice the RAM. I hope that helps a little with loading
Seems broken for me. Acessing from EU, I only get a few hits in San Francisco area.
Same, from the UK.
Ok I doubled it again wow
Better octuple it.
The background loads for me but then nothing (on mobile Android)
Appreciated, but still not loading for me fwiw.
I am getting 500 from https://roadway.report/v1/accidents_by_location_geojson
and
``` ncaught (in promise) SyntaxError: Unexpected token '<', " <!doctype "... is not valid JSON ```
The problem I'm seeing is that when I move or resize the map, it makes requests to *.tile.openstreetmap.org, but not to roadway.report/accidents_by_location_geojson. I checked with desktop Firefox and Chrome.
This is great! Plans for any filters?
For example, I can see the death in front of my house from a year ago, which was the driver suffering a heart attack while driving. He was the only victim and it wasn’t the crash that killed home.
Would love to be able to compare areas for things like:
- DUI - speeding/reckless driving - cycling victims - pedestrian victims - multiple vs single vehicle - medical cause
I high recommend people get into NHTSA's FARS database. It's an old school GSA type database, so it's format is a little unusual, but you can hoist into an SQL table without much difficulty, and then you can ask and answer all of these questions.
They often include things like "path of accident" so you can even run queries and ask questions like "how many vehicles flipped over before crashing" or "how many passengers get ejected from the vehicle before dying" or even "how often are snow banks involved in crashes?"
Odd things last I checked in 2015:
More people die in Texas than California. In total. Not per capita.
Most people in Florida die between 7pm and 9pm which is far later than most other states.
Pedestrians usually die at night.
Anyways, a great database last I used it: https://www.nhtsa.gov/research-data/fatality-analysis-report...
More people die in Texas than California. In total. Not per capita.
Also per capita, It is not possible for more people to die in Texas and not beat California for per capita metrics given the lower Texas population.
Yea.. I meant "not _just_ per capita."
I don't get it, the pins are concentrated only in San Jose California. I am not in the US right now.
Bad UI. You need to double-click the desired area. Not sure what to do on mobile.
Just tap the map once on mobile to refresh it seems.
Ah got it thanks!
I have been looking for something like this. To clarify it doesn't show pedestrians or bikes hit by cars? ( I live near a stretch of road that I know has several white bike memorials but this does not see to not have them there..)
There's a pedestrian fatality on the map near me. Might be a problem with data gathering/consolidation - apparently data collection is done by individual states (and of course they're themselves distributing it out to a huge number of different counties/municipalities/PDs).
Data included is specifically 2001/01/01-2023-01-01 if that makes a difference.
Hey — this is really cool — though looks like it’s being hugged to death right now.
Assuming the data is being updated less often than hourly it should be relatively straight forward to generate a pmtiles tileset of the accident points, using either tippecanoe or planetiler — stick on something like s3, and have it basically scale infinitely.
Happy to help if needed!
While also getting billed infinitely
You could also put cloudflare in front of it and leverage their free plan until they don’t let you anymore (which is my experience for something like this is pretty much forever).
Or you could host it with a plain old web server on a hosting platform that gives you fixed bandwidth for a fixed price. And it probably still scale well enough to survive a front page hug.
You can also query the database pretty easily here if the site isn't loading: https://cdan.dot.gov/query
I get an error from that site too ("reporting engine is down!"). Is the site posted here directly querying the DOT database and knocking it offline, or just a coincidence?
** Planned Outage: A planned maintenance is scheduled this Friday July 19th 11:00 pm EST thru Saturday July 20th 11:00pm EST. During this time, the reporting engine may be down. Sorry for the inconvenience. **
The number #1 cause of car crashes is the presence of cars. Walkable communities have less cars, therefore, less car crashes.
The city grid is mainly to blame. The city grid of most American cities is uniquely bad - filled with streets which run at right angles to each other.
Take a look at Brussels vs Queens New York. Brussels had 5 road deaths in one year. Queens New York averages 75/year. That's almost a 7x difference adjusted for population.
Brussels has as an extremely irregular and walkable grid. Queens, like Manhattan, is full of dumb dangerous straight-lined roads and 90 degree angles.
The more irregular the grid the lower the traffic fatalities (assuming you're in a high-income country).
Why do suburbs have cul-de-sacs? They have curves, and They are useless as roads. They force cars to slow down, and disincentivize automobile traffic. Ergo, less cars, and your kids might get away with playing in the street without getting hit.
Rip up the grid and build a walkable community. It won't be cheap. Upzone and lower property taxes for any private developer that builds affordable housing on a walkable grid in your city.
There's only one place in the United States that's trying - Culdesac Tempe in Arizona. Northeast/California NIMBYs won't let you dare try to fight off their localism. They vote. Do you vote?
Culdesac might work ok if you allow bike and pedestrian thoroughfare at the end point. Otherwise they are impossible to walk or bike due to long distances to get anywhere
South shore of Alamdea CA has this and it’s great. My kids called them the “secret paths.”
Great job! I would love to see a writeup of how you did this!
Elsewhere, someone here linked to the national crash data set. Sounds like they used PostgreSQL/Postgis for the backend here to store the data. The web server grabbed it as GeoJSON and displayed with a mapping web framework like Leaflet.
I did a crash analysis locally using the QGIS desktop software for some display and analysis, as well as Node.js and the Turf.js library when custom code was needed for spatial analsyis:
https://mark.stosberg.com/the-most-dangerous-intersections-f...
already hn dos’d
edit: while u fix it, what’s the source of the data? Did you get it from all of the state DoTs or is there a single set from the fed?
It's all from the FARS database
this doesn't work on mobile for me. tried in chrome and Firefox, but I just get the splash page.
Same. Strangely, switching to Desktop site mode doesn't fix it.
Is there a way get this data in form of a large graph?
It already is. What is a map if not a large 2D graph?
Put another way, what are you imagining would replace the current X/Y axis and still be relevant to this project?
Oh cool! This could be put into cars to make drivers more aware about endangering environments.
I could be wrong on this one, but I vaguely remember Waze adding an alert like this recently.
I live in a similarly sized city to San Francisco in Northern Europe and San Francisco has almost two orders of magnitude more traffic deaths each year.
For the downvoters, yes a slight exaggeration. The year I checked, 2019 was 1 vs around 30, so just slightly over an order of magnitude if you want.
As it stands, it's hard to draw meaningful insights other than "lots/few people died here".
Things that makes this difficult:
- Roads change overtime. Added stoplights, more lanes, added roundabouts. Dramatically change the rate.
- Volume of traffic. Deaths per cars would be interesting.
Also, there's no indication when a pin is 1 or multiple deaths
Also curious of data source.
Nhtsa FARS
Rather morbid, but I'm trying to find details for my 24 year old cousin who was struck and killed by a drunk driver in 2008(?). Somewhere in Texas.
Any plans to add search/filter functionality?
The best I have right now is place and time to find a specific incident, but yes I should be able to get some basic filters up soon
Does this work on Android at all? I just have a static image. Using Brave.
The title on the image is also a link to the actual map. Took me a while to figure it out too.
Is there a clean database of all accidents, not just fatalities, that can be downloaded?
I need to look into something called NEMSIS, but no not to my knowledge. Most states have injury records though.
Hug of death?
Hug of death.
Lol ok I'm trying to get home and figure out why it's server error city (yikes)
We appreciate your diligence.
Please enjoy complimentary load death. Would you like that mapped?
My friend, Josh, died the day before he should have started 9th grade. His brother got into partying and eventually hard drugs, I suspect at least partly because of Josh's death. He died of a heroin overdose in 2018. I've known several other people who've died on the roads around my hometown but I don't see them on the map.
Someone needs to Tufte-fy this. I don't know if it's the hug of death or not but when I zoom out, I don't see (what I assumed would be) a distribution of deaths, a sort of heatmap of occurences. Then if you add a time dimension with color or some other parameter, it could give us a sense of what areas are most dangerous to avoid. At the moment the pins / tooltips are not very ergonomic and they obscure more than they reveal.
is it just me, or 101 is 2-3x more dangerous than 280 per this map in Bay Area? definitely more density of pins on 101 (you have to click to the center in between these 2 highways to see pins on both). It makes sense, since 280 is a bit less loaded, and built better, has full shoulder in most places.
The split to 85 going south on 101 is a very bad place - 7 pins very close together.
This is interesting in of itself but it might be more useful if it was weighted for population (ie. traffic without deaths)
Thanks for this, it’s a helpful visual that I deeply appreciate. It was weirder than I anticipated to see a best friend’s death reduced to an incident report.
PS you may need to explicitly search to get results returned (I did)
Not sure what the data source is, but I crossed referenced with local news of pedestrian traffic deaths, and they aren't showing up on the map.
Great work! It would help too if there’s an overall statistics page for the whole period.
When I change the area it does not refresh. It would be nice to have a "search in this area" button just like google maps to refresh the viewport.
Congrats, I wish I had this data over the years to avoid roads. I saw Waze had a feature for intersections that had higher accident rates.
Is there a way to use the data to get a percentage or score for how dangerous a freeway is between 2 points on a map or something? Suggest an alternate freeway or intersections?
Such an excellent project!
https://www.nhtsa.gov/research-data/fatality-analysis-report...
It would be useful to be able to filter for season such as winter vs rest of the year and time of day. Quite sobering to look at clusters of deaths in your home area that you wouldn't have predicted. Love to know which roads to avoid in bad winter weather or when driving in the early AM hours.
Neat! Nearest traffic fatality to my house happened 22 years ago. Oddly it involved three women -- two in their late 70s and one in her late 90s.
I've worked with stats in this area before and it's not pleasant. You can't escape the reality behind the numbers, not that you should.
This is incredible work!
Thank you for putting this together. I live in an area that has terrible traffic patterns for pedestrians and I always suspected it had a higher than usual fatality density. Now I know for sure!
I've done traffic crash analysis at a city-scale:
https://mark.stosberg.com/the-most-dangerous-intersections-f...
One thing that's striking at is that the fatality locations do nor correlate with the "highest crash rate" locations hardly at all.
The intersection where you are most likely to get hit has a high pedestrian volume and often (in theory) low speed traffic.
While the fatalities here are more likely to happen on high speed streets, sometimes in locations where no one expecting a pedestrian.
Put another way: if we were try to fund "fixes" for the locations with fatalities, it would be mostly locations with a single fatality at those locations, while we have plenty of locations that have several pedestrian-involved crashes per yet.
Must be hug of death. Anyway, I recently made a video visualization of every fatal accident in 2022 by timeline and it ended up being over 8 minutes long because there were so many (over 39,000 events). It's sobering to realize how many people are losing their lives on the roadways each year. There's a fatal crash about every 10 to 15 minutes in the US alone.
What was your toolset for the analysis? Can’t see now because of HOD? Excited to see your data! I haven’t seen it yet but I imagine this is will be similar to the private actuarial structured data of a any car insurance company. By no means am I diminishing your efforts.
This is one of the most amazing things I've ever seen on Hacker News. Great work whoever did this!
I'm not sure the intention here but in an addition to being an outstanding project it's also a hideous indictment of 21st century transportation. So much life lost as a result of apes clumsily manoeuvring heaps of metal across painted lines of asphalt.
Interesting.
At the moment it's very very slow.
I was able to eventually load and click through to see broad details about a crash.
Pretty impressive collection of data.
US 287 between Fort Collins, CO and Laramie, WY is notoriously dangerous and your map certainly bears it out. Click on any random stretch and it is absolutely full of pins :( Crazy because it is a wide open rural highway for the most part where you can see for miles. But it's only one lane on either side which leads people to try to pass recklessly. Plus there are some sudden turns and changes in elevation. Connecting two college towns probably doesn't help, either.
Thanks for sharing (and good luck keeping the site up). It's the definition of morbidly interesting.
It would be great if there were pin colors for the different types of fatalities (pedestrian, cyclist, motorcyclists, etc)
This is cool and heartening as a resident of Washington DC who's about bicycles Kinda curious how you're capturing my lat-lon tho ...
All I see is a picture of a car crash. I guess the site's broken. Fitting image.
Horrible pic. That's all?
Would really be interested in aggregating some of these stats e.g. which vehicle is most common in these incidents.
This type of data just makes me dislike cars even more, and in particular the unnecessarily large ones we see in Americas and increasingly in Europe.
Very interesting. I can imagine this map would benefit from a different kind of visualization. Maybe a heatmap would better accentuate problematic areas.
this is super fascinating. I'm sitting here with my kids going through accident after accident in our neighborhood and piecing together what happened for each one. Every report tells a detailed story. We can't stop.
So, is the whole webpage just a static JPEG image of a car crash?
Very cool. It would be awesome if you could lift some of the major contributors of the accident/death up to the top (wet conditions, driver was drinking, driving too fast, etc).
Maybe I missed an alternative mode that's already present, but this feels like it would benefit enormously from a heatmap view, so that one could see where fatality hotspots are at a higher level before zooming in to examine specific locations.
Flatten your data down to a heatmap
How about references to the data sources (NHTSA as mentioned by others) for credibility and less of a "spam" look? How about an About page?
The splash photos on that website says it all.
For those in Australia, or after OECD comparisons there is an incredibly grim set of PowerBI dashboards here for your exploration too: https://www.officeofroadsafety.gov.au/data-hub/fatalities-da....
Is it hugged to death? All I see is a background image on FF and Vivaldi?
my 2 cents : I had to view source to find the /testmap page. Maybe add a link that says "this way to the map" or something similar ?
Are you weighing the deaths by use of the road. Otherwise it's not representative of danger level right
To me the comment spoke to our criminal lack of intelligent road design. It’s well known through multiple studies that road design impacts how fast people drive far more than posted speed limit signs. If we actually cared about road safety, we would design roads to be more safe and not just design a road that is comfortable to drive 60mph on and put up a 25mph speed limit. When you want slower speeds you need to make lanes more narrow. Add obstacles along the side of the road so it doesn’t feel so open. Add medians as areas where pedestrians have a refuge when daring to cross a place designed for vehicles. Add chicanes and bollards to force speed compliance in especially dangerous areas. There seems to be almost none of this happening in most places in the US that I have visited.
We also could largely solve this problem with technological enforcement but people really hate that. If we made both the financial penalties for speeding and the probability of being caught sufficiently high, we could practically eliminate it overnight.
The challenge in giving powerful entities direct control over our actions is they:
directly control our actions,
ceaselessly seek to control other actions,
will be as unaccountable as they can be,
will not ever allow control to flow in the other direction.
This type of whining about slippery slope hypotheticals is ubiquitous in these discussions, but it's not very compelling up against the current reality of 40,000 unimaginably violent early deaths every single year in the US alone
I disagree. The economy depends on the rivers of money that flow through the roads. Roads dispense communication, goods, labor, et al, over the vast area that is the USA. 40k deaths, distributed across the US, is a good deal.
On the other hand, I had great expectations for companies that wanted to provide a solution that's safer for a profit (robocars). A handful of people died during the development, and it's rejected outright by large portions of the population. So here we are.
Not only is this accounting callous, it seems to presuppose that there is societal benefit in reckless, antisocial driving behavior. I don't believe that this is true. Imagine a world in which median vehicle speeds remained the same and traffic fatalities went to zero. I'd take that 10 times out of 10 compared to the status quo.
Of course I was being mildly hyperbolic when saying we could solve speeding with technological enforcement, but I genuinely believe it could make a massive difference and lead to a significant quality of life improvement for most people. For those with the need for speed, build more tracks. But we should stop normalizing reckless behavior on our shared roadways. There should be an expectation of safety and we should maximize traffic flux while minimizing traffic injuries and fatalities.
Before we tackle the hard problem outlined above, let's solve the easy problem of pedestrians (bikers, scooters, skateboarders, etc.) traveling on highways and crossing traffic in undesignated places. I can't tell you how many times I've had pedestrians impatiently run across the roadway in front of my car.
Let me get this straight, do you want to put the burden on pedestrians?
I guess it could also involve building proper crossings.
this is such a hilariously bad take that I have no hope that anything will ever change
I'm not sure one problem is easier to fix than the other. They both seem to come from people acting irresponsibly to arrive earlier at their destination, probably combined with an infrastructure to nudge towards that behaviour.
Changing behaviour with a penalty isn't terribly effective unless enforced in such a way that it is incredibly privacy-invasive, more effective is changing the layout of the streets. But I wouldn't be sure that that is easier to fix on the pedestrian side than on the vehicle side.
Mere sacrifices for The Greater Good. The Greater Good!
Will you step up when it’s your turn?
Still tiny compared to heart disease!
Most of those are avoidable plus the rate of long term disabilities is about 10x the death rate (so 400 000) and of minor injuries is 10x that (so 4 million) plus... we can do both. There is plenty of money for safer road infra, DRIVERS JUST DON'T WANT IT because killing a stranger matters less than 5 fewer minutes spent commuting per day.
The same situation is true of heart disease, albeit the risk is generally killing themselves vs a random stranger.
People just run out of shits to give at some point, and do what is easy.
Idk. Technological enforcement seems like it really should be the last resort here. Why should we not focus on stopping the construction of stroads and building safer streets and roads first and foremost before we reach for a tech solution that will undoubtedly come with privacy and abuse related tradeoffs while also likely being less effective.
Think probabilities here. Given human nature, what are the most probable solutions?
I’ve seen a number of cities find the authority or political will to increase the number of automated speed cameras. This suggests (while not a complete complete solution) a real step in the right direction
Given the entire urban planning political environment has shifted towards gradual but substantial infrastructure changes, at this point the main barrier to change is just making it happen. And to achieve that all you need to do is push for new road standards and guidance at a city, county, or state level.
Once that's done the changes can roll out whenever there's maintenance or road widening going on. This is for example what Florida is doing to push for a comprehensive passenger rail system and it's what other countries have done to make their roads and streets safer and more efficient as well. So it'd stand to reason the same principle would work at state and local levels in the US for this as well.
The only real argument against it I could see is that it'll take too long but 30-50 years really is nothing for widespread infrastructure improvements.
The reason this isn't solved is because traffic deaths are considered to be a "cost of doing business". Most pedestrian traffic in the US is in cities and due to the way funding formulas and political representation works in the US, suburban and rural areas have more political power than urban areas which care more about traffic throughput than pedestrian safety, so the issue never gets fixed. The only places in the US making headway have large urbanized areas and even they are struggling.
Rural areas don’t have much political power either. A lot of rural America is actually unincorporated which means they don’t have a municipal level government, and instead are ruled by the county[^†].
In my experience the outsized political power is across gegraphic areas and instead is divided between classes, with the rich having almost all political power. A rich neighborhood in San Francisco hold much more political power than an improvised suburb in Fresno.
Instead the reason I believe for pedestrian traffic being considered the "cost of doing business" among the political classes, is the good old hatred of the poor. Pedastrian casualties are extremely rare among the rich, as the rich usually drive almost everywhere, and if they walk, they do so in an area which they have lobbied to make safe for pedestrians. The rich don’t care if the poor die.
†: As an immigrant, this feels like a major democratic oversight, one of many USA should fix if it wants to consider it self a democracy by 21st century standards.
Other states may be different, but at least in California there’s a pretty straightforward path to incorporation if a community desires it. The large number of unincorporated areas are because the residents don’t think the tradeoffs are worth it.
Counties are also generally all too happy to delegate decision making to communities which will take it on even if they don’t incorporate.
It still feels like a democratic oversight. The most favorable interpretation is a failure of policy.
It is simply not acceptable to leave any part of your population without municipality level representation. Delegating this to a community council is not democratic and is extremely ripe for misuse. If a community wishes to remain unincorporated you have to look at why that is, and offer accommodations or change the incorporation strategy accordingly.
For example both Skyway and White Center (unincorporated King County, WA) voters have refuse to be incorporated with Renton and Burien respectively, but it was the Seattle city council (not voters) that rejected incorporating White Center, and voters have never been asked if they want their own independence. At the same time Vashon hasn’t even been asked.
If America was serious about democracy they would establish a policy in which every populated area outside of reservations will have local level representation in like 30 years (ideally they should have started that policy 30 years ago). And if there is no agreement on how a single community (say White Center) hasn’t incorporated by that time, have a plurality wins—or better yet, ranked choice—vote on e.g. 3 options, Seattle, Burien, or independent.
Skyway and White Center aren’t rural. They want to be unincorporated to pay less taxes and follow less rules. I agree that suburban unincorporated shouldn’t be allowed. I would add that small, below 50-100k, suburban cities shouldn’t be allowed. But that isn’t for smaller subdivisions but larger ones,
But that has nothing to do with rural areas. My brother lives in Iowa near medium town. Everything else is small towns, less than 1000. Should those incorporate and spend money on city services? What about the farmers who are spread out? What municipality do they belong to? The county is the best option.
Let me understand this. Are you suggesting adding yet another inefficient layer of government in sparsely populated areas?
BTW, in at least some states there are intermediate subdivisions of government, e.g. townships and districts, which take care of the roads even in rural areas.
You are responding to my footnote, but ok.
Yes. This is what most—all?—other democracies do. More realistically though, municipality level governments include surrounding rural areas. In areas with small towns and large areas of rural farmlands, the farmers and town residents have equal representation, but the farmers obviously have a bigger political influence (hopefully the municipality governments have enough representatives though that the townfolks have at least a couple of representatives).
In reality unincorporated America also includes heavily urbanized areas (more often than not poorer than the surrounding areas). Here in Seattle this includes Skyway and White Center. But even if aside from those it is pretty unacceptable that all local planning for the community of e.g. Fairwood, or even Hobart don’t have any say in their municipality level organization, instead relying on the same county council as Seattle for their local affairs (a council with only 9 representatives for a total of 2.2 million constituents).
1) build a society that requires a car to get around
2) exclusively sell cars with ludicrous acceleration and top speed
3) set legal speed limit at 1/6th the top speed of most vehicles
4) enforce strict financial penalties for operating one’s obligatory high-powered vehicle at more than 1/6th its maximum speed.
I’m strongly anti-car - I think we fucked up a whole lot designing society the way we did, but at this point, actual strict enforcement of speed limits with financial penalties is just robbery. If you want fewer people to die in car accidents, build a world that doesn’t obligate everyone to drive, or build a world where the vehicles for sale aren’t all SUVs with 0-60 times that would embarrass a Ferrari from 40 years ago, but don’t just start fining people when they use the vehicle you made them buy to do the thing it was made to do.
Please be realistic about what interventions are available given the current US system. Redesign our entire road system? Sounds great, but how are we going do it?
Think about the policy changes and thousands or more of political wranglings across every populous jurisdiction in the United States.
Even if we get it done over the next 20 to 120 years, what are we going do in the meanwhile?
Like a lot of things, start with reviewing what works elsewhere, start some pilots, and what works do bigger and bigger rollouts.
Like, use data. If marketers and TikTok can trick us so easily using these techniques we can do the same in socio-technical settings too.
Like most things, “architectural” systems solutions will work better than point behavioural interventions, but it’s always going to be a mix.
Bike safety in The Netherlands was a multigenerational effort ranging from creating standards around roads intersections, bike paths and pavements and slowly remediating old ones while building new ones.
That’s only a tiny part of a society-wide effort to improve quality- and length-of-life measures, but like the US Interstate highway system, has had measurable results in terms of economic and social outcomes.
Some actions taken today will have individual results tomorrow. Some in 30 years. Better get started, right?
If something is illegal and enforced, people won't do it.
We’ve tried that with Prohibition, the War on Drugs, and speed limits. Even where speed limits are enforced, people speed.
Most consumer cars are going to have a hard time at 120mph, if their tires are even rated for it.
So then you're claiming that most speed limits are 20mph.
Which they're not.
And then, I'm not sure? Should it be legal to drive suburban streets at triple digit speeds?
I am not sure what you're trying to get at, beyond "we should be able to use our cars to the limit of their capability, even if it exceeds our own as a driver".
In my one trip to China so far, this is exactly what I observed!
It's the same in Australia. Speeding is quite uncommon and you'll be very quickly caught out.
Indeed, just because a problem could theoretically be addressed (I think solved is a reach) by technology, doesn't mean it's a sensible choice.
Much like how putting a sign that says "pull" on a door that's designed to be pushed is analogous to what most places in NA do, which is to threaten people who use the road in the way it's designed.
GP is describing traffic calming road design. Where planners make roads purposefully feel less safe in certain neighborhoods because that statistically makes them safer per mile driven. A common example here in SF is to add unnecessary bends to an otherwise straight alley. This stops people from speeding right through a residential area because it's straight and empty.
An example you may have seen in more rural areas is a straight road with an unnecessary curve before a stop sign or before entering a town. This forces you to slow down in a way that a speed limit doesn't.
https://globaldesigningcities.org/publication/global-street-...
It's also separating things out. We need larger, faster roads to get from city to city - that's kind of inevitable. But the way you design those is to completely separate out bikes and pedestrians from them, and also limit access to them. Think of something like an interstate freeway.
Slow, local streets are relatively safe because of the slow speeds and the priority on building places that cater to people and businesses rather than moving automobiles as quickly as possible.
The 'in between' things, "stroads" are what tend to be the worst of both worlds. They do often include some token bike/pedestrian infrastructure that is not very safe, and they include lots of places where other cars exit/enter the road and turn lanes and just a lot of potential for bad interactions in unexpected ways.
The Strong Towns folks do a pretty good job of outlining this, and in terms of fixing it, I've seen some interesting stuff related to street design in the Netherlands.
The trouble is why the "stroads" came to be to begin with.
Motorists will generally prefer whatever route gets them to their destination faster, but shops want to be where the traffic is, because they want motorists to stop and patronize them. So the shops want to set up right next to the high volume traffic path. But then pedestrians patronizing the same shops will be adjacent to that high speed high volume vehicle traffic.
In theory there are designs that can address this, i.e. you interleave roads so that each block is bounded by a high speed road for vehicle traffic on one side and a low speed road for pedestrians and cyclists on the other, keeping them separate but still allowing businesses to be accessible to both. But now you run into politics: The motorists may now have to walk up to a city block to get where they're going and the anti-car people are going to object to there being high speed roads and parking lots in the city whatsoever. Meanwhile making the change requires a budget allocation to do the work, so in the absence of consensus the status quo prevails.
Citation needed? Motorists (as opposed to pedestrians) rarely stop at a shop because they passed in front of it (except on very long routes). Reason being, it is pretty hard to register what shops you're passing when driving
I don't think having a lot of motor traffic in front of it helps a shop
Impulse stops are rare (except gas) but people often develop habit of coffee along the way, and they will look for a place not out of their way.
It's not just coffee. If you're coming home from work and want to pick up dinner or grab something at a convenience store, are you going to stop at the place on the road you're already taking or do you want to add more time sitting in rush hour traffic to go somewhere else?
But adding a detour is easy in a car (even during rush hour - congestion is mainly on big axes). Restaurant doesn't need to be right where the traffic is.
Stroads make sense where there is little pedestrian (including bicycles, scooters, etc.) traffic.
Stroads never make sense, even with zero pedestrian traffic. They have way too many ingress and egress points, so they are wide, attempting to be fast, yet ultimately a significant crash risk, because there's a way in, or out, or something, ever quarter mile at the most. Tiny strip mall with 4 stores! A funeral parlor! A bank! a subdivision hidden somewhere? Sometimes, even straight out houses. All at 90 degree angles, where some traffic is doing 40, and there's no traffic lights in most of said interscetions.
Even banning pedestrians, we'd be far better off with fewer ingress points to fast roads that now need fewer lanes, and then the few intersections/roundabouts give access to side roads that are rated far, far slower, and have access to those store parking lots. The traffic that is going far is then detached from the one that is going close, the road gets faster, and the street is safer from fender benders. The diminished places where people stop fast and go will also lower stress on the physical road itself, leading to less places needing repairs very often, as the typical stroad turning lane does.
But that's a complete failure of the people doing traffic management: Other countries manage to make car accessible shops by minimizing the number of ingress and egress points in the road that is supposed to be fast, and moving the stores to a side street that has all those points, but is slower, narrower, and possibly usable by a pedestrian.
The sin of the stroad is to give us a 6 lane road that is ultimately risky and slow-ish due to those ingress points, instead of separating the fast traffic and the slow one. Most of the time we'd not even need a larger right of way: Just treating major roads as places where every intersection is a serious hazard to minimize.
The main issue here is really that other countries allow mixed-use zoning, causing a higher proportion of patrons to be pedestrians instead of the majority of the population living isolated in the suburbs and arriving by car. But you can't fix that by changing the roads, first you have to change the zoning -- and then wait several years for its effects to be realized.
And in the meantime the shops will want to be on the high traffic road because that's how most of their customers arrive.
I'd argue that most American local streets are unsafe anyway: I've seen Spanish highways with fewer lanes than suburbian streets with no commercial. But the distances to connect 500 bedrooms, placed in 1/3rd of an acre lots, are so large that ultimately roads are overbuilt to fit anything. Suburban streets with traffic under 1 car a minute in the daytime, with 3 or 4 lanes, set to a 30mph max, where you'd do 60 except for the fact that it's full of driveways coming in and out. Why do we even allow a lone house connect to a road like that via a driveway, where the neighbor will go into the street in reverse? It's madness, and is all over the midwest. So we don't even have to get into the stroads.
Let's just barricade up the streets. No traffic = no traffic accidents. This is what's been happening in Chicago with all the island, speed humps, etc. Reducing traffic to a safe crawl.
The problem with those devices is that they slow down traffic even when there are no pedestrians around and the streets could be used to reduce congestion on the roads.
I wonder what effect slowing traffic down to a crawl has on overall emissions. I'm guessing not good. I bet speeders are overall more efficient than crawlers.
For the last point, EVs.
For everything else, have you ever thought about the effects of higher speed traffic on residents? I'm guessing you haven't cause "screw those people".
Roads are a classic NIMBY thing. Essential infrastructure, but a nuisance to those nearby.
I grew up in a neighborhood that had no outlets. Very, very safe place to play as a kid. We’d be in the street all day long, riding, walking, playing.
I returned recently, and the atmosphere is completely different, because now the streets have been extended. Through traffic completely changed the dynamics.
In London, despite assertions from individuals similar to yours, impact has been almost universally positive from Low Traffic Neighbourhoods.
That’s what my home city did – Ljubljana. Over the past few decades the downtown area has become an almost square mile sized pedestrian zone. It has been wonderful. The area is completely revitalized, shops are booming, tourism is booming, entertainment industry is booming, everything is booming.
All because they kicked out the cars.
Here’s a video and a photo from my recent trip back. It made me realize how dead San Francisco feels in comparison even with 3x the population because everything is just roads with nowhere for people to hang.
https://x.com/Swizec/status/1803873334066843733 https://x.com/Swizec/status/1803896813679972570
What are you trying to say?
They likely say that more people use fast roads, so it's expected to have more accidents. The safest road is one never used.
> The safest road is one never used.
The safest road is one without motor vehicles. Pedestrians and bicycles cause a tiny number of injuries even when traffic is high.
Cyclist hitting a pedestrian at 20mph is more dangerous than 2 cars hitting each other.
He's saying that if a stretch of highway has traffic volume of 10 million trips taken on it in a year and an average of 2 deaths per year, that is still much safer than a neighborhood street which sees 10,000 trips per year and averages 1 death per year.
(numbers made up to emphasize a point, a neighborhood street with 1 death per year is pretty obviously unsafe)
That’s not the correct comparison anyway.
Speed and convenience also matters. I like big, fast, and wide roads because they let me and many others get to where we want to go quickly. It’s a trade off. We shouldn’t let “think of the children” safetyism decide what the balance is, since that line of thinking is extremist and does not consider what is at stake on the other side of the argument. Efforts to eliminate every last death on streets are a waste of time since we’ll never achieve perfection and roads are very safe already. The road diets made under that unrealistic goal are simply making everyone’s lives worse by causing us to spend more time on the roads in traffic.
Traffic deaths are quite literally one of the two leading causes of death of children in the United States, so in this case, yeah, actually thinking of the children makes some sense.
Note the way to do this is to follow engineering rules.
Take the 85th percentile rule.
If you take a neighborhood road and change it from 40mph to 25mph in an attempt to "save the children", you can easily make it more dangerous.
The 85th percentile rule figures how fast people go on a road, and sets an appropriate speed limit that people naturally follow. Attempting to set a speed limit too low or too high leads to a wide speed variance, which makes the road more dangerous.
In my personal experience, automated speed cameras are way more effective than traffic calming.
Yeah, but those probably cost more and don't make for a nice environment outside of cars. Traffic calming can be super cheap and it makes for a super pleasant environment for everyone.
Traffic calming is usually more expensive than speed cameras. A speed bump isn't expensive but people are usually talking about stuff like bump outs and raised intersections and protected bicycle lanes and wide sidewalks when they are talking about traffic calming. Those are six figures per intersection. Cameras are low five figures.
I'd go further and say automated average speed cameras are the most effective I've seen. Point speed cameras just get marked on a map and cause sudden braking and acceleration to dodge them - this can be effective at particular danger spots, but I always feel the average speed cameras in the UK are far more effective at changing driver habits in general.
Not in mine. Drivers who know about the camera's location speed down right before the camera and speed up immediately after
I live in BC, where speed cameras are banned by law. Right next door is Alberta.
Last time I was in Edmonton, known for extremely car centric design, wide roads, ample highways, etc. I was shocked by how much slower people drove, and as a result, how much safer driving was in general.
You only have to get slapped with a fine a few times before you start learning to control your speed.
How does setting a speed limit "too low" make a road more dangerous?
Safest roads have the speed limit 5-10 mph below the road design speed.
see fig 4 on speed variance:
https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/research/safety/17098/...
going faster or slower than average traffic speed shows markedly greater accident rate.
note that this can apply not only to speed limits, but things like express lanes going different speeds than other lanes
But you're saying the speed limit (being too high or low) makes the road dangerous. Aren't the people driving their cars too fast making the road dangerous?
A great many people when they see a open straight road with little obstacles or pedestrians will go 45-50 MPH. A great many people when they see a 15 MPH sign will go 20 MPH. Pair that low speed limit with a "fast" road and you will end with many people going 45 MPH and many people going 20 MPH. This variance in speed, with some people going much slower than others can be more dangerous than if most went the same speed - e.g. if the limit were 45 MPH.
You are correct that people driving too fast make the road dangerous, but so does people driving too slow. Generally, from a safety point of view, you want the slowest speed at which almost everyone will actually drive at, as large variance in speed between drivers is dangerous. I think this is what the parent post was getting at: a speed limit too fast OR too slow will increase the number of accidents, keeping in mind that there will always be at least some drivers speeding.
> You are correct that people driving too fast make the road dangerous, but so does people driving too slow.
It's accurate to say that people driving too fast are extra dangerous when there are slower vehicles in the road. The danger is still caused by the people driving too fast, not by those driving slowly, though. Speed kills.
Or we could actually build slower, safer streets that are that way by design, rather than relying on signs.
And where roads need to be fast and move a lot of cars, separate them out from other uses.
and set speed limit 5-10 mph below design speed for maximum safety.
People go the speed they are comfortable with, not the speed on the signs. You have to design for the speed you want.
The problem is that people are naturally very bad drivers and are especially bad at judging what safe speed is.
We already know it's hopeless to teach them so what is left are traffic calming measures, heavy handed enforcement and technology (automatic speed limiters in cars).
Setting speed limits to speed people choose is a terrible idea.
The point of the Solomon curve is specifically that that isn't true.
I don't think I've ever heard someone argue that the 85th percentile rule is actually a good invention - it's a disaster that codifies the behaviour of speeding drivers.
I agree that merely lowering speeds without changing the design speed is a bad move, though.
To me that sounds like a safetyist argument. Even if the number of deaths are high in total count, it may not matter when you consider the trade offs. For example if everyone spends an hour more in traffic each day - which is what the effect of “calming” has been in my experience - you’re causing an impact that is worse than the small number of deaths in my city. That delay and damage to our life quality matters, and needs to be weighed against the rare deaths.
Cars are very safe today and are getting much safer. Even basic cars come with many features to avoid accidents now. We will probably see deaths per mile driven go down on its own, without the need for malicious road design.
For their occupants, sure. For those outside cars (and remember, children can't drive) not so much: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/americas-cars-trucks-ar...
Cars now have sensors all over and automatic braking to prevent collisions. The article acknowledges the benefits of front facing sensors in luxury vehicles from the time it was written, which are very common today even in basic vehicles. So are the 360 cameras it mentions.
Also - this article is focused on data from 2016 to 2020 for front collisions. It mentions 744 deaths of children in front collisions on non public roads (where the blind spots it talks about matter more) in that 5 year period, which is frankly a small number. This is a country with a few hundred million people after all. Some number of deaths are inevitable and it isn’t a crisis.
> Cars now have sensors all over and automatic braking to prevent collisions.
Yet pedestrian deaths in the US have kept climbing over the past ten years or so.
I can tell you that as a lifelong pedestrian I do not feel remotely safe walking in North America compared to Western Europe, where I used to live, or Japan, which I've visited a few times.
If you really feel unsafe about incredibly low risk possibilities, your only choice is to stay indoors permanently. Most people feel safe walking because the chance of something happening is so unlikely.
Pedestrian deaths may have climbed in recent years because of increased smartphone use or changing behaviors. I see many more jaywalkers for example, especially by homeless drug addicts in west coast cities, many of whom just blindly step into traffic.
There is no rigorous way to attribute your claimed increase in pedestrian deaths to cars.
There are cell phones everywhere, but pedestrian deaths have only increased in the USA, so it is not that.
Walking in my neighborhood is objectively more dangerous than it needs to be. In the past decade there have been several instances where motorists have mowed down and killed pedestrians, sometimes when they were minding their own business walking on the sidewalk.
I'm sick of motorists only valuing their own convenience and using demeaning language to describe the pedestrians that they victimize.
People with long commutes spend most of that time on highways, which are not affected by traffic calming measures. A surface street going from 35mph to 25mph is not going to add an hour of driving time unless you are driving 100 miles a day on non-highway surface streets, which literally nobody does. You are exaggerating the impact of traffic calming measures.
Cars are getting less safe for pedestrians and cyclists, not more safe. Why should pedestrians bear the human cost of higher car speeds when drivers are the ones benefitting from it? Easy to pretend the benefits of speeding outweigh the costs when the benefits accrue to you and the costs accrue to other people.
I’ve seen streets go from 45mph to 25mph, lose driving lanes to bike or bus lanes, lose parking, etc. It makes things far worse than you think. What used to be a 20 minute drive will now be 35 minutes. Now consider the drive in both directions, time to find parking, and other trips you might make that day. It forces people to stay confined and not make as many trips because it simply isn’t possible to fit them in anymore. That is a loss of life quality.
They don’t have to and by and large they don’t bear any cost for it. You’re exaggerating things - the probability of a pedestrian dying is incredibly low. I walk as well and am not in fear of cars just like I’m not in fear of other unlikely events.
The quality of life improves for pedestrians, cyclists and transit riders when parking and car lanes are converted to bike and bus lanes. Drivers are not the only stakeholders who deserve consideration.
Many of the people who insist that there is no safety impact from high speed local roads nevertheless choose to raise their kids in suburban cul-de-sacs with minimal traffic and curvy roads with low speed limits. They want the right to subject other communities to speeding cars for their own convenience while protecting their own families from them.
Slowing down insidiously shaves away at your lifespan too, it just doesn't produce exciting catastrophic life loss events.
By that same logic, distance insidiously shaves away at your lifespan and we should build mixed-use walkable neighborhoods so that we can quickly reach our everyday destinations rather than causing traffic every time we want to get anywhere.
Don't just think about the deaths.
Think about all the injuries too. All the environmental damage. All the people that don't hang on the street because of the fumes and noise and danger. All the road rage and cortisol that boils within otherwise sane people the moment you put them behind a wheel and into some traffic. All the sedentarism and obesity from people opting to drive 2 minutes rather than walk 10. All the forgone housing for parking stadiums.
I am all for convenience, but the costs are noticeable in more ways than one.
Environmental damage is the argument against traffic calming measures. Vehicles are most efficient traveling at a consistent, relatively high speed. The reason the national speed limit was historically set at 55MPH was that was the approximate speed at which aerodynamic losses overcome mechanical losses from low gearing at low speeds, i.e. it was the speed that vehicles of the time were most fuel efficient. Modern vehicles have even better aerodynamics. Moreover, fuel efficiency for electric vehicles is essentially moot, because they have built-in storage that can be charged from intermittent renewable sources during times of oversupply when the power is "free".
Conversely, traffic calming generally results in vehicle speed changes as motorists slow down and then speed back up again in response to obstructions or areas with intentionally low visibility, which not only wastes fuel by operating vehicles below their optimal speed, it results in braking and acceleration that increases brake dust and tire wear.
Environmentally, the optimal road is flat and straight with no traffic control devices or other reasons for vehicles to change speed, i.e. a highway.
This assumes that cars are the only way to get around.
A bus that starts and stops as it goes through traffic calming with 100 people on it will make an absolute joke of the efficiency of even the most fuel efficient of cars.
In areas where transit is given its own lane, or is a train, the time efficiency is much better as well. Plus if you give buses their own lanes you can remove traffic calming measures for them and give them signal priority, thus making them even more efficient from a resource, and time perspective.
Which is true in many cases, and would take decades of construction to do anything about, e.g. because people would have to move out of the suburbs or else at least one end of the trip will require a car, which would require massive long-term new housing construction in urban areas and has no short-term solution.
A city bus will get around 5MPG. The most efficient cars get more than 50MPG, so a city bus isn't even as fuel efficient as the cars until it's carrying more than 10 passengers. In theory they can carry 30-40 passengers, but generally in practice they don't, and in theory that 50+MPG car can carry five or more passengers too.
"In areas where the time efficiency of car traffic is purposely degraded, car traffic has lower time efficiency" is kind of tautological, but that's a silly argument for doing it, especially when the proposed alternative isn't available, e.g. because one of the endpoints is in the suburbs and the bus doesn't go there.
It's kind of odd that the same people who talk about wasted space from parking want to allocate entire bus lanes worth of space for a vehicle that only uses them 0.2% of the time. Also, what are you proposing here? 50+MPH buses traveling next to bike lanes and pedestrians? It would have to be even higher than that, because the bus is constantly starting and stopping to pick up passengers (and is then stationary for several seconds), so to achieve an average speed of e.g. 30MPH, its cruising speed would have to be above 60MPH, which is not only dangerous if adjacent to pedestrians, it's extremely inefficient as you're repeatedly accelerating a huge bus to highway speeds and then back again.
When the alternative is a car traveling a constant 60MPH on a highway, the bus compares unfavorably in terms of both time and fuel efficiency.
I’m not going to point by point you.
I will say that I lived in Vancouver. A city where I have never seen fewer than 10 people on a bus, where driving is frequently slower than transit, where you are rarely more than a 10 minute walk from a bus, where during rush hour, they convert parking lanes to bus lanes. It does take time to change, but it will take longer if we wait.
All of this works fine in places where they have been enacting all the things that you are saying don’t work. Most people just can’t imagine it working until they see it.
Presumably during rush hour, which is kind of the issue. You can get more people on the bus during peak hours, but then it's off-peak and you're in a place where you don't have a car. Now you're either waiting an hour for a bus so it can be full (which is slower than a car) or you're maintaining frequent service by running mostly-empty buses (which is less efficient than a car).
Vancouver is also a coastal city the size of Boston with a fairly high population density. Things will work there that won't work in smaller inland cities surrounded by suburban and rural areas.
But because driving there is slower than it is in most US cities, right? That's not really an attractive way to get the result. The goal is to make the new thing better, not to make the existing thing worse.
The real problem is that people propose these things in places where they don't work. If you have an urban city with dense urban housing, obviously people will be able to use mass transit. But you can't just add a bus lane to a city where most of the population commutes in from the suburbs and expect it to have the same effect. Everyone still has to drive and all you've done is remove a travel lane and make the traffic worse.
Allowing the construction of mixed-use medium density buildings reduces the distance of the average trip, which allows more people to choose walking and cycling.
At the end of the day, the more you design a neighborhood to facilitate driving, the more car traffic it will suffer. And the more convenient you make it to any other form of transportation, the less car traffic there will be.
Allowing the construction of mixed-use medium density buildings reduces the distance of the average trip several decades from now, after the new zoning has filtered out into the already-constructed installed base of existing buildings. That doesn't mean we shouldn't do it -- in fact we should do it immediately for precisely this reason -- but you can't expect it to have an instantaneous effect.
Meanwhile people keep proposing things like bus lanes as something we should do in the present day, in places where they can't work until after that construction has already happened. Also, bus lanes are never a good idea because the density required to justify a bus lane (which is very high because it consumes a significant amount of surface land in an area with high land scarcity) is higher than the density required to justify a subway line (which doesn't).
LOL, ever heard of particulates from road wear and tire wear? Guess how the production of those scales with higher speeds?
Guess what, that's changing with EVs. Hybrid or not.
Awesome, put those where nowhere lives.
I am guessing you don’t know yourself which is why you’re posing questions as an argument.
It’s not changing. Consistency of speed is important no matter what. Regenerative braking is imperfect.
I didn't have to guess because I looked it up. Turns out it's much more proportional to acceleration/deceleration than absolute speed.
But EVs can charge from renewable sources and then they don't have any fuel-related emissions.
Roads are used for going from where people live to where they want to go.
Environmentally, the optimal road is the road with no cars on it. Ideally, traffic calming is paired with cities where things are put closer together and where walking, biking, and transit are the most viable options for most trips. Traffic calming a road in a suburb a mile from the nearest store might help with safety, but people will still use cars to get everywhere.
But then why is there even a road there? How to reduce the amount of travel required and how to most efficiently get from A to B are two different issues. Doing the former is good, but it requires things like new higher density housing construction, which takes a long time and is not going to cause most of the existing homes in the suburbs to cease to exist under any plausible expectation.
One of the reasons for this is that high density doesn't require much land; if you build 20 units to a lot then you could double the existing suburban housing stock as high density units, but you'd have only bulldozed 5% of them to do it, so the other 95% would still exist. This would reduce housing costs but you'd still have someone living in most of those existing homes, which are in places it's not viable to walk or use mass transit.
And then you might want to ask a question like "how do we make transportation more efficient in the short term, i.e. on a 5-10 year timescale"? To which the answer is things like "make new cars electric" and "optimize high-traffic roads to maximize the efficiency of existing vehicles".
I don't disagree but I would add this adjacent perspective.
It's a bit like we've installed public-funded, unremovable alcohol spigots in everyone's home. People using them within their designed limits lead to awful outcomes. We're reasonably upset about that and respond with thousands of marginally and unequally enforced restrictions. Unhappy with their ineffectiveness, we just keep piling on more punitive restrictions.
Giving up booze infrastructure isn't on the table tho. We're too dependent on it.
Where are these mythical big, fast, wide roads?
Every road I know, no matter how wide, is slow. And making it wider doesn't help because of induced demand.
I'm not sure I buy the concept of induced demand. If you widen a road and it results in more traffic, that sounds like there was already more demand than supply.
Induced demand should really be called "insurmountable demand." If there's a million more people who would take a traffic-clogged freeway if it were moving at 6mph, then it will always be clogged with traffic.
For example check Eisenhower drive in La Quinta, California: https://maps.app.goo.gl/YdaSTfX9YwrXmU1MA
There's a non-trivial chance that the only reason you're around to complain about child safety is that we spent so long eliminating unnecessary dangers. The issue is speeding, not that you want to get somewhere faster than the speed limit.
"Fast" and wide roads don't actually help much with moving traffic around as there's such a phenomenon as induced demand. When more lanes are added to a road, more people are encouraged to drive and then the fast and wide roads get congested, especially where they join with smaller roads.
There's also the geometry problem. As more roads are built and more people travel by car, the various amenities get spread further apart (e.g. more parking required) which then makes them more difficult for people to walk/cycle to. This then gets more people to make a car journey when they previously might have walked which increases the amount of traffic. As more traffic builds up, more and wider roads are built which pushes everything further apart. This then encourages more and longer car journeys which results in more congestion - the solution to which would appear to be adding just one more lane to the roads.
The trick to solving congestion issues is to encourage as many people as possible to make short, non-car based journeys. Unfortunately, prioritising car journeys is almost always at the expense of other traffic.
There can be big, fast roads between places of interest but we build them right through our towns
I for one think it's good to not kill children.
Speed kills, but slowness eats lives in another way.
Which is worse, having a 1% chance of dying in a car accident, or spending an extra hour/day stuck in traffic? I think I might take the first option; it delivers a higher expected number of hours of life not stuck in traffic.
Sorry, but: carbrained.
1. If the US would have safer streets/roads/... and overall more human-oriented city design some people would walk to their destinations.
Look at this stupidity, and this is a new community: https://youtu.be/9-QGLfWSrpQ?si=bsTbq0cdMltXEzU5&t=299
Also some more people would bike to their destinations. Some people would take take public transit.
And guess what, that means that in the end, fewer people drive so there's less traffic, and on empty streets going 30kmph on average, you get where you want faster than in stop and go or constantly merging traffic that has posted speed limits of 50 kmph. As people say, driving in the Netherlands is world class, and that's <<because>> the Netherlands has tons of cyclists, not <<despite>> them.
2. You know or should know that it's not about you dying in your car. These days cars are incredibly safe tanks for those inside. You're more likely to kill someone <<outside>> your car.
3. Other people have pointed out the logical fallacy, already.
Everything in the Netherlands is world-class though. Some policies are feasible somewhere like NL but not in other places.
People often say "this is why we can't have nice things"... Such policies are the "nice things".
The Netherlands was as car-supremacist a country as any other until the 70s. They fixed their stuff and now their bike infrastructure is excellent: people move to their destinations faster and safer and cheaper and cleaner than in everyone had to travel in an automobile.
Bikes cannot be faster than cars because cars can literally accelerate faster and have higher top speed. When car infrastructure is sufficient there is no theoretical way bikes can move people faster as you claim. As for safer - cars are very safe already and it is irrational to care about minor risks.
It hasn't always been like that. There was a public campaign in the 1970s to try to prevent all the child deaths from car drivers - Stop de Kindermoord. There's not really any excuse for continuing to design purely for car drivers apart from that's what people have been led to believe.
https://www.dutchreach.org/car-child-murder-protests-safer-n...
I'm sure there's a fancy name for the fallacy you're presenting here but there are more than two choices.
The third choice is stop building in such a way that these wide and fast roads are needed.
It's not even a realistic representation of the commute choice. In the US, with a heavily car centric culture and ~stupid housing policy, we still have an average daily commute of about 55 minutes. Aren't gonna save an hour on that.
The fancy name is "false dichotomy", and you're completely right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma
That also has a cost. Needing to uproot your entire life and move everything around.
How selfish of you. Don't you care that you're more likely to kill somebody's kids as you fly down the road in your SUV, just to save some time on your commute?
How selfish of you. Don’t you care that your demand for your smartphone could result in the death of a miner in Africa?
Also super shameful, probably because you're famous here, that your comment is <<upvoted>>.
My, if only there were other worlds possible than "stuck in traffic for 2h" and "flying down a 14-lane road on a 4-ton child-killing machine"... But sadly it's impossible :'(
Indeed. You can do a utilitarian cost-benefit analysis using "quality-adjusted life years".
Speed kills.
A road where traffic moves at 30mph can be poorly designed and lead to lots of accidents, but so long as those accidents are not a vehicle hitting a pedestrian they're unlikely to be fatal.
A road where traffic moves at 70mph is another story.
More people also just die where there are more people...
USA has 12.9 traffic deaths per 100 000 people yearly with 330 million people.
Europe as a whole has 7.4 with 746.4 million people, and developed EU countries are around or under 5. Surface area is actually quite similar 9.3 million vs 10 million km2.
There are countries with population densities higher and lower than US in there, and ALL BUT ONE OF THEM have less traffic deaths than US. It's Bosnia and Herzegovina by the way. And it's at 13.5.
USA is crazy unsafe for a developed country, and it barely matters if you compare with sparsely populated Canada (5.2) or Sweden (2.0), or densely populated Germany (3.7) or Japan (2.1).
It's not about population nor population density. It's not about wealth. It's not about population distribution.
It's about car-centrism and insane design.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...
12.9 still seems very low to me. What makes the lower number better? I wouldn’t want the difference between 12.9 and 7.4 if it means I need to give up on driving cars and take slow inconvenient public transit or be limited to where public transit takes me. Cars are freedom.
I would also argue the US is more successful than literally every other country in part because of fast road infrastructure. So maybe they’re all just making the wrong tradeoff.
~20 000 fewer people dying per year.
You don't need to give up driving cars. People do drive cars outside USA.
When it's done right it's more convenient than cars. I own a car and I drive under 3000 km per year because I just barely need it.
The only metric I can think of where this is true is military, which does not seem relevant :)
It's a crazy comparison because Germany for example is still an incredibly car-centric country.
We have what are called “stroads” in North America, which are very much what you’re describing.
I remember when I was a kid, they took Pershing Road on the Stickney-Berwyn (Illinois) border and changed the commercial parking from diagonal to parallel and increased the traffic flow from two lanes to four. I have no firm data, but I’m pretty sure that this increased accidents on the street as well as effectively killed the Stickney CBD on Pershing Road (I would guess at least a third of the storefronts are currently vacant and that’s ignoring buildings that were demolished and never replaced). And I’m not entirely sure what traffic benefit came out of increasing the flow along the street as it’s not really a good connector of anything in that stretch.
No we don’t. That idiotic “word” was coined by a fanatical YouTuber, not anyone that should be taken seriously.
I dare you to say “stroad” outside of your online echo chamber.
I don't particularly like the word myself, partially because I use 'street' and 'road' interchangeably and so I'm never clear what it's supposed to be a hybrid of, but the word was coined by Charles Marohn, founder of the nonprofit Strong Towns [0]. I don't know about any YouTube channel associated with him, but I have heard of the nonprofit and I'm not exactly a passionate follower of that niche.
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_Towns
The fragrance of the water reclamation plant more likely killed the business in Stickney (or Stinky as some people refer to it lovingly).
What you're describing sounds a lot more like a stroulevard. Not a stroad.
Traffic calming measures like lane narrowing have successfully been used in Europe for safety.
Drivers don't follow traffic rules. They follow the rules that appear to make sense for the scenario they're in.
No matter how many 15 mph speedlight signs you put up on a wide street, the driver will subconsciously speed through a wide street because the brain is stupid like that.
Want drivers to stop before the footpath, raise it up. It'll make them feel like they're off-the-road and they'll slow down.
Everything about cars is associated with perceptions.
Families buy heavy cars for the perception of safety, but instead have a vehicle that is harder to turn and is more likely to end up in a ditch. They buy taller vehicles to feel safe but have instead purchased a massive blindspot notorious for trampling over your own children. Unprotected bike lanes look like shoulder lanes you can serve into, and that's how drivers treat them.
You're absolutely correct about the feeling of discomfort when driving through narrow lanes.
The biggest lie we tell is that cars are safe. No, you're wielding the most lethal murder weapon in the country, with almost zero training and 1 mistake is all it takes to get a prison sentence.
They should feel uncomfortable.
Outstanding comment, you're absolutely correct about everything. Except this:
On the contrary, on top of everything you've pointed out, if you do kill someone (or multiple someones) at the wheel of a car you're unlikely to get more than a few months in prison AT MOST.
unfortunate, but true.
At this point, having a child that's escaped scott-free from a hit-n-run is part of billionaire-bingo.
Statistically speaking, if you want to murder someone, a car is the best possible murder weapon.
One of the big ironies of all this is car insurance.
If you keep getting your car dinged on narrow roads, your insurance payouts will be larger than if you run over someone. Dings add up to a lot, but hitting a pedestrian maxes out the payout before the guy makes it out of the emergency room.
This is why Massachusetts drivers have a bad rep. Lots and lots of minor accidents in dense traffic. But MA itself it one of the safest places in the US
This is sort of like saying “most child p*rn is transported by undersea fiber optic cables!”
You might be interested in Not Just Bikes. In particular, their take on what they call "stroads": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORzNZUeUHAM