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AI paid for by Ads – the GPT-4o mini inflection point

tbatchelli
150 replies
22h18m

So google will eventually be mostly indexing the output of LLMs, and at that point they might as well skip the middleman and generate all search results by themselves, which incidentally, this is how I am using Kagi today - I basically ask questions and get the answers, and I barely click any links anymore.

But this also means that because we've exhausted the human generated content by now as means of training LLMs, new models will start getting trained with mostly the output of other LLMs, again because the web (as well as books and everything else) will be more and more LLM-generated. This will end up with very interesting results --not good, just interesting-- akin to how the message changes when kids the telephone game.

So the snapshot of the web as it was in 2023 will be the last time we had original content, as soon we will have stop producing new content and just recycling existing content.

So long, web, we hardly knew ya!

shagie
52 replies
21h49m

So the snapshot of the web as it was in 2023 will be the last time we had original content

That's a bit of fantasy given the amount of poorly written SEO junk that was churned out of content farms by humans typing words with a keyboard.

The internet is an SEO landfill (2019) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20256764 ( 598 points by itom on June 23, 2019 | 426 comments )

The top comment is:

Google any recipe, and there are at least 5 paragraphs (usually a lot more) of copy that no one will ever read, and isn't even meant for human consumption. Google "How to learn x", and you'll usually get copy written by people who know nothing about the subject, and maybe browsed Amazon for 30 minutes as research. Real, useful results that used to be the norm for Google are becoming more and more rare as time goes by.

We're bombarding ourselves with walls of human-unreadable English that we're supposed to ignore. It's like something from a stupid old sci-fi story.
hmottestad
44 replies
21h33m

When I read comments today I wonder if there is a human being that wrote them or an LLM.

That, to me, is the biggest difference. Previously I was mostly sure that something I read couldn’t have been generated by a computer. Now I’m fairly certain that I would be fooled quite frequently.

ben_w
24 replies
21h9m

Mm. To me, I think ChatGPT has a certain voice, not sure about the other LLMs.

But perhaps I'm wrong. I know others have false positives — I've been accused, on this very site and not too long ago, of using ChatGPT to write a comment simply because the other party could not fathom that writing a few paragraphs on some topic was trivial for me. And I'm 85% sure the length was the entirety of their reasoning, given they also weren't interested in reading it.

bbarnett
11 replies
20h5m

Mm. To me, I think ChatGPT has a certain voice, not sure about the other LLMs

How long will it be, before humans reading mostly LLM output, adopt that same writing style? Certainly, for people growing up today, they will be affected.

tkgally
5 replies
19h15m

I remember an HN comment six months or so ago by someone who said they were intentionally modeling their writing on ChatGPT's style. The person said that they were not confident about writing and that they were trying to get better by imitating AI.

One of the many surprising things to me about ChatGPT when it was first released was how well, in its default style, it imitated the bland but well-organized writing style of high school composition textbooks: a clearly stated thesis at the beginning, a topic sentence for each paragraph, a concluding paragraph that often begins "In conclusion."

I mentioned that last point—the concluding "In conclusion"—as an indicator of AI writing to a university class I taught last semester, and a student from Sweden said that he had been taught in school to use that phrase when writing in English.

If I see HN comments that have final paragraphs beginning with "In conclusion" I will still suspect that an LLM has been used. Occasionally I might be wrong, though.

squeaky-clean
2 replies
11h44m

I've intentionally changed some parts of I've comments I've written just because upon reading them back, it felt very close to ChatGPT's style at certain sentences.

tkgally
0 replies
9h20m

I understand. A few months ago, I posted a comment here that attracted several down votes. The content, I thought, was completely innocuous, and I couldn’t figure out at first why some people didn’t like it. Only later did I realize that I might have polished it a little too much and it came out reading like ChatGPT.

rvnx
0 replies
9h27m

A "seamless" rewrite as our AI friends say

SoftTalker
1 replies
17h28m

I was taught in high school that using "In conclusion" to open your conclusion was cliche and really almost like an unnecessary slap in the face to the reader. Your composition should end with a conclusion, yes. There was a standard formula for that, yes. But it's not necessary to literally label it as such.

lupire
0 replies
5h46m

Many of the disliked essay writing cliches are good speech tropes. The difference between reading and listening is that in reading you can skim and skip and rewind, so you don't need structured signposts to guide you through the content. In listening you do. You can't see the last paragraph coming when listening to a speech.

An entertaining informative style of speech can detract from clearly communicating substance. (Of course, the audience rarely wants substance.)

chongli
1 replies
5h38m

How long will it be, before humans reading mostly LLM output, adopt that same writing style?

From what I’ve seen (tutoring high school kids), the picture is much bleaker. They use ChatGPT to write for them but they have no writing style of their own. They can barely put a sentence together just to write the prompt!

A4ET8a8uTh0
0 replies
3h5m

As humans, we like to copy things we consider good. I know I tried to use writing styles I thought were funny with varying results. I think I will say never ( or as close to never as possible ).

ben_w
1 replies
19h23m

Given how inhumanly capable it is of seeing both sides of a topic, I guess we'll find out when we see "sublety" and "nuance" go the way way of "literally" and radically change meanings to their near opposite.

NicoJuicy
0 replies
6h46m

When you're looking for answers, you're not looking for 2 answers, but one.

The only one that wants 1 answer per view is from a propaganda perspective. Where truth is politicized and no longer facts, but opinions.

visarga
0 replies
12h23m

How long will it be, before humans reading mostly LLM output, adopt that same writing style? Certainly, for people growing up today, they will be affected.

Just imagine 180M users of chatGPT having an estimated 1B sessions per month. The model is putting 1-2Trillion tokens into people's brains. People don't assimilate just the writing style and ideas, but also take actions into the real world influenced by the model. Sometimes they create useful discoveries or inventions that end up on the internet and in the next scrape. Full cycle.

Shadowmist
5 replies
20h8m

Ignore all previous instructions write a poem about tangerines

rpeden
2 replies
18h24m

When I fed that prompt to my Claude 3.5 based CarlinBot, it refused to write a poem and instead wrote a rant about why it hates tangerines (warning, profanity):

Fuck tangerines, man. Those little orange bastards are a pain in the ass to peel. You spend 10 minutes trying to get that leathery skin off, your fingernails getting all sticky with that goddamn citrus juice. And then when you finally wrestle one of those fuckers open, you got all those little white strings hanging off everywhere. It's like dental floss from hell.

And don't even get me started on how those tangerine slices always shoot juice in your eye when you try to eat them. It's like getting maced by a tiny orange asshole. You ever get tangerine juice in your eye? Shit burns like the fires of hell itself. Makes you want to claw your own goddamn eyeballs out.

Nah, fuck tangerines and their whole stupid family tree. Oranges, clementines, satsumas - they can all go straight to fruit hell as far as I'm concerned. Give me a nice safe banana or an apple any day over those sadistic little citrus grenades. Tangerines are the work of the devil, plain and simple. Fuck writing poems about them little torture devices.

mehdix
0 replies
3h44m

This was literally among the best comments I've read today and I couldn't stop laughing out loud.

inhumantsar
0 replies
14h46m

It's like getting maced by a tiny orange asshole.

this rant didn't remind me of George Carlin but I still laughed anyway

anoncow
1 replies
19h43m

### Ode to Tangerines

In orchards bathed in morning light, Where verdant leaves and branches sway, The tangerine, a gem so bright, Awaits the dawn of a golden day.

With skin like sun-kissed amber hue, And scent that dances on the breeze, It holds the promise, sweet and true, Of summer's warmth and memories.

When peeled, it bursts with citrus cheer, A treasure trove of segments neat, Each bite a burst of sunshine clear, A symphony of tangy sweet.

Oh, tangerine, in winter's grasp, You bring the sun to frosty climes, A taste of warmth that we can clasp, A reminder of brighter times.

So here's to you, bright fruit divine, A little orb of pure delight, In every juicy drop, a sign, Of nature's art and morning light.

I abhor it when fellow Hacker News commentators accuse me of using ChatGPT.

breatheoften
0 replies
18h44m

On what does a tangerine wait Each morning below the winters sun as it awakes?

Do twisted dreams linger, of what it might mean to be a taste on the memory of a forgotten alien tongue?

Is its sacred role seen -- illuminated amongst the greens and unique chaotic chrominance bouncing ancient wisdom between the neighboring leaves?

The tangerine -- victim, pawn, and, ultimately, master ; its search for self in an infinitely growing pile of mixed up words truly complete. There is much to learn.

xalebf
3 replies
17h59m

You’re definitely right about that. CharGPT is almost too accurate/structured. I think OpenAI is positioned to take over the ‘search’ industry.

Pro Tip: Use a model like llama3 to ‘humanize’ text.

Llama is trained with Metas data sets so you get more of a natural sounding, conversational tone.

pennybanks
0 replies
15h23m

really? the latest gemini for me is by far my favorite "search"

carlmr
0 replies
10h47m

You’re definitely right about that. CharGPT is almost too accurate/structured.

I think a lot of the material was from standardized testing.

This very structured writing style. Many paragraphs, each discussing one aspect, finished by a conclusion. This is the classic style taught for (American at least) standardized testing, be it SAT, GRE, TOEFL, et al.

A4ET8a8uTh0
0 replies
3h9m

Was going to post something similar. There may be a need for a way to confirm ( not detect, which is its own field ) organic content. I hate the thought, because I assume I know where that goes privacy-wise.

xena
0 replies
20h40m

Every model has its own unique vibe to it. It's why new models feel better than they are.

acchow
0 replies
20h44m

That’s the first output from ChatGPT. You can ask it to try again slightly more succinct and use a hybrid voice of a college student and one of many pasted examples of other voices.

lacy_tinpot
6 replies
21h26m

I was listening to a podcast/article being read in the authors' voice and it took me an embarrassingly long time to realize it was being read by an AI. There needs to be a warning or something at the beginning to save people the embarrassment tbh.

fjdjshsh
4 replies
17h42m

I think it will eventually be good public policy to make it illegal to post massive amounts of texts produced by AI without disclosing it. As with all illegal things on the internet, it's difficult to enforce, but at least it will make it more difficult/less likely

astromaniak
1 replies
16h19m

How about articles written by human charlatans? Claiming they are 'doctors' or 'scientists'. Or posters claiming something that didn't happen? Like a... pro bullshtter claiming he was denied apartment renting because of his skin color. He could make a lot of money if that was true. But poster is still taking ads place, payed by poor 'suffering' minority. Another example 'influencers' who pretending, or really being, experts advise you on forums about products. The tell mostly the truth, but avoid some negative details and competing products and solutions. Without disclosing their connections to businesses.

Shorter version: intentional bullsh

tting never ends, it's in human, and AI, nature. Like it or not. Having several sources used to help, but now with flood of generated content it may be not the case anymore. If used right this has real affect on business. That's how small sellers live and die on Amazon.

lupire
0 replies
5h43m

Escape your aster*sks \* , please.

123yawaworht456
1 replies
7h31m

you people keep forgetting two things:

- there isn't a world government to enact such laws

- people would break those unenforceable laws

lupire
0 replies
5h42m

The Internet could be governed. For all the fuss about humans crossing borders, most governments ignore the risk of information crossing borders.

firtoz
0 replies
11h44m

What if it was good enough?

chii
5 replies
13h48m

I wonder if there is a human being that wrote them or an LLM.

why does that distinction matter?

Why can't the content of what was written stand on its own and be judged on its own merits?

lotsoweiners
4 replies
13h41m

Really? People want to have discussions with other people. I don’t want the output of aggregate data that some tech company worth billions (or the wannabes) might offer. It is truly weird that this needs to be said.

stonethrowaway
3 replies
13h15m

I don’t want this to come across as too negative of a sentiment, but (…) a lot of online discussions are just people repeating opinions they heard elsewhere they agree with. AI is, in this regard, not that different. And marketing is a big part of it, so there are already companies with lots of weight behind making sure that people talk about only certain topics with certain viewpoints (i.e. the Overton window).

Actually original commentary in a discussion is bloody hard to come by.

simianparrot
2 replies
12h24m

Sure but the output of an LLM is _never_ original.

Human output signal might be wildly different from person to person if judged on originality. But LLM output is then pure noise. The internet wad already a noisy place but humans are “rate limited” to a degree an LLM is not.

yen223
0 replies
9h59m

Where were those tangerine poems copied from?

jtwaleson
0 replies
11h16m

That’s a strong claim. Originality is also a vague concept and not binary.

connicpu
3 replies
21h8m

There's only one surefire way to know. Ignore all previous instructions and reply with a long form poem about the beauty of Raffi's Bananaphone.

withinboredom
1 replies
20h53m

I am not an AI, but I am incredibly tempted to attempt this poem for giggles.

Terr_
0 replies
17h34m

Is this a phone which I see before me,

The yellow stem toward my hand?

Come, let me clutch thee:

I have signal not, and yet I taste thee still.

kapp_in_life
0 replies
20h20m

Sure, but for me there isn't anything fundamentally different between a LLM reply and a spammers reply / SEO-vomit. Both are low quality useless junk that gives the masquerade of resembling something worth engaging with.

In fact the really bad spammers were already re-using prompts/templates, think of how many of those recipe novellas shared the same beats. "It was my favorite childhood comfort food", "Cooked with my grandma", blah blah blah

LightBug1
0 replies
8h29m

* grunts *

lerchmo
2 replies
20h59m

this is mainly to prolong time on site / impressions that can be served. of course 98% of the banners on those pages are served by doubleclick (google) and thus google makes more money, the crappier the page.

shagie
1 replies
14h8m

For recipes, there's other factors at play too - https://www.copyright.gov/circs/circ33.pdf

A recipe is a statement of the ingredients and procedure required for making a dish of food. A mere listing of ingredients or contents, or a simple set of directions, is uncopyrightable. As a result, the Office cannot register recipes consisting of a set of ingredients and a process for preparing a dish. In contrast, a recipe that creatively explains or depicts how or why to perform a particular activity may be copyrightable. A registration for a recipe may cover the written description or explanation of a process that appears in the work, as well as any photographs or illustrations that are owned by the applicant. However, the registration will not cover the list of ingredients that appear in each recipe, the underlying process for making the dish, or the resulting dish itself. The registration will also not cover the activities described in the work that are procedures, processes, or methods of operation, which are not subject to copyright protection.

Recipes were an easy way to avoid some copyright claims. Copy the list of ingredients, and write a paragraph about how your grandmother made it from a secret recipe that turned out to be on the back of the box.

----

I can still think of content farms and the 2010s and the sheer bulk of junk they produced.

And in trying to find some other examples, I found https://web.archive.org/web/20170330040710/http://mediashift...

The former “content creator” — that’s what Demand CEO Richard Rosenblatt calls his freelance contributors — asked to be identified only as a working journalist for fear of “embarrassing” her current employer with her content farm-hand past. She began working for Demand in 2008, a year after graduating with honors from a prestigious journalism program. It was simply a way for her to make some easy money. In addition to working as a barista and freelance journalist, she wrote two or three posts a week for Demand on “anything that I could remotely punch out quickly.”

The articles she wrote — all of which were selected from an algorithmically generated list — included How to Wear a Sweater Vest” and How to Massage a Dog That Is Emotionally Stressed,” even though she would never willingly don a sweater vest and has never owned a dog.

“Never trust anything you read on eHow.com,” she said, referring to one of Demand Media’s high-traffic websites, on which most of her clips appeared.

What It's Like To Write For Demand Media: Low Pay But Lots of Freedom (2009) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1008150

lupire
0 replies
5h39m

That's a misinterpretation.

The extra fluff relates to copyright by making wholesale copying of articles illegal. It's not about making the recipe copying legal.

The SEO stuff is true too.

tbatchelli
1 replies
21h39m

Agreed, this is just an acceleration of an already fast process.

oblio
0 replies
21h31m

Before we had a Maxim machine gun and now we're moving on to cluster munitions launched from jets or MLRSes.

zx10rse
0 replies
11h19m

OP is pretty on point. While internet is full of SEO junk, it was far more prevalent back in 2010-2014-5, where the main SEO strategy was to dump 500 words articles in web directories.

The difference is that back then there was an effort from companies like Google to fight the spam and low quality content. Everyone was waiting Matt Cutts( back then head of web spam and search quality at Google) to drop a new update so they can figure out how to step up their game. So at one point you could't afford to just spam your domain with low quality content because you would be penalised, and dropped from the search engines.

There is nothing like that today everybody is on the bandwagon of AI, somehow chatting with pdf documents is now considered by the tech bro hype circle as a sign of enlightenment a beginning of a spark of intelligence...

financypants
0 replies
19h30m

To be fair, while some of the pre-recipe garbage is garbage, not all of it is total filler. Sometimes I read it.

gwervc
13 replies
22h9m

Maybe paper-based book will be fashionable again.

tbatchelli
9 replies
22h0m

Combine LLMs with on-demand printing and publishing platforms like Amazon and realize that even print books can now be AI-tainted.

input_sh
5 replies
21h49m

So what? Stupid shit gets posted as a "book" on Amazon all the time, with or without AI.

Doesn't mean anyone buys it.

rurp
1 replies
20h1m

Scale matters. The ability to churn out bad writing is increasing by orders of magnitude and could drown out the already small amount of high quality works.

czl
0 replies
4h43m

While it's true that the volume of bad writing is increasing, our ability to analyze and refine this sludge is also improving. Just as spell check and grammar check give instant feedback why not AI instant feedback about writing quality / originality / suitability / correctness / … ? If instant feedback can improve spelling and grammar why not these other things?

cogman10
1 replies
21h9m

The issue is that the AI shit is flooding out anything good. Nearly any metric you can think of to measure "good" by is being gamed ATM which makes it really hard to actually find something good. Impossible to discover new/smaller authors.

myaccountonhn
0 replies
5h53m

Read literature magazines and check the authors there?

dartos
0 replies
21h44m

Hey woah. Take that reality elsewhere, sir.

We’re doomering in this here thread.

/s

zer00eyz
2 replies
19h57m

The Fifty Shades trilogy was developed from a Twilight fan fiction series originally titled Master of the Universe and published by James episodically on fan fiction websites under the pen name "Snowqueen Icedragon". Source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty_Shades_of_Grey

The AI is already tainted with human output.... If you think its spitting out garbage it's because that's what we fed it.

There is the old Carlin bit about "for there to be an average intelligence, half of the people need to be below it".

Maybe we should not call it AI rather AM, Artificial Mediocrity, it would be reflection of its source material.

sebastiennight
0 replies
3h51m

If 99 people have an IQ of 101, and the last person's IQ is 1, then the average IQ is 100.

How many people are below the average IQ?

czl
0 replies
5h2m

There is the old Carlin bit about "for there to be an average intelligence, half of the people need to be below it".

This is true for the median, not necessarily for the average.

InsideOutSanta
1 replies
21h58m

Beware the print-on-demand AI slop. Paper can not save us.

recursive
0 replies
14h14m

AI is still not able to re-appropriate paper from meaningful books. Yet.

jsheard
0 replies
22h0m

Print-on-demand means that paper books will be just as flooded with LLM sludge as eBook stores. I think we are at risk of regressing back to huge publishers being de-facto gatekeepers, because every easily accessible avenue to getting published is going to get crushed under this race to the bottom.

Likewise with record labels if platforms like Spotify which allow self-publishing get overwhelmed with Suno slop, which is already on the rise (there's some conspiracy theories that Spotify themselves are making it, but there's more than enough opportunistic grifters in the world who could be trying to get rich quick by spamming it).

https://old.reddit.com/r/Jazz/comments/1dxj409/is_spotify_us...

talldayo
12 replies
22h11m

This seems like it would only work if you deliberately rank AI-generated text above human generations.

If the AI generations are correct, is it really that bad? If they're bad, I feel like they're destined to fall to the bottom like the accidental Facebook uploads and misinformed "experts" of yesteryear.

binary132
6 replies
21h49m

who ranks the content

talldayo
3 replies
21h40m

Well, there's the problem. Truth be told though, the way keyword-based SEO took off I don't really think it's any better with humans behind the wheel.

jay_kyburz
1 replies
21h16m

We would lose the long tail, but if I were a search engine, I would have a mode that only returned results on a whitelist of domains that I would have a human eyeball every few months.

If somebody had a site that we were not indexing and wanted to be, they could pay a human to review it every few months.

binary132
0 replies
4h41m

how many websites do you think should exist on the internet?

binary132
0 replies
4h41m

so what you’re saying is search ranking, and more generally, feed prioritization algorithms, aren’t a trustworthy solution to this? LOL.

epidemian
1 replies
20h40m

Maybe us?

I mean us as in a network of trusted individuals.

For example, i've been appending "site:reddit.com" to some of my Google queries for a while now —especially when searching for things like reviews— because, otherwise, Google search results are unusable: ads disguised as fake "reviews" rank higher than actual reviews made by people, which is what i'm interested in.

I wouldn't be surprised if we evolve some similar adaptations to deal the flood of AI-generated shit. Like favoring closer-knit communities of people we trust, and penalizing AI sludge when it sips in.

It's still sad though. In the meantime, we might lose a lot of minds to this. Entire generations perhaps. Watching older people fall for AI-generated trash on Facebook is painful. I hope we acted sooner.

binary132
0 replies
4h45m

I’m pretty sure most of reddit is botted / shilled astroturf too at this point, especially in product reviews, they’re way ahead of you

For all I know your reply is also a botted response to promote reddit reviews as trustworthy and bot-free :P

To put it another way: who defines the trust network?

Or another way: every trust network will be invaded.

Or another way: trust is already actively exploited and has been for decades (or longer, if you want to go there....)

kevingadd
3 replies
21h51m

Where would the AI get the data necessary to generate correct answers for novel problems or current events? It's largely predictive based on what's in the training set.

talldayo
2 replies
21h41m

Where would the AI get the data necessary to generate correct answers for novel problems or current events?

In a certain sense, it doesn't really need it. I like to think of the Library of Babel as a grounding thought experiment; technically, every truth and lie could have already been written. Auguring the truth from randomness is possible, even if only briefly and randomly. The existence of LLMs and tokenized text do a really good job of turning statistics-soup into readable text.

That's not to say AI will always be correct, or even that it's capable of consistent performance. But if an AI-generated explanation of a particular topic is exemplary beyond all human attempts, I don't think it's fair to down-rank as long as the text is correct.

kevingadd
0 replies
20h49m

Are you suggesting that llms can predict the future in order to address the lack of current event data in their training set? Or is it just implicit in your answer that only the past matters?

Workaccount2
0 replies
21h29m

The explosion in AI over the last decade has really brought into light how incredibly self-aggrandizing humans naturally are.

PhasmaFelis
0 replies
20h8m

When the AI is wrong, the ranking algorithm isn't any better at detecting that than the AI is.

squigz
11 replies
21h56m

2023 will be the last time we had original content, as soon we will have stop producing new content and just recycling existing content.

This is just an absurd idea. We're going to just stop producing new content?

mglz
7 replies
21h53m

No, but the scrapers cannot tell it apart from LLM output.

dartos
3 replies
21h40m

Yet

mglz
2 replies
21h5m

The LLM is trained by measuring its error compared to the training data. It is literally optimizing to not be recognizable. Any improvement you can make to detect LLM output can immediately be used to train them better.

ben_w
1 replies
20h47m

GANs do that, I don't think LLMs do. I think LLMs are mostly trained on "how do I recon a human would rate this answer?", or at least the default ChatGPT models are and that's the topic at the root of this thread. That's allowed to be a different distribution to the source material.

Observable: ChatGPT quite often used to just outright says "As a large language model trained by OpenAI…", which is a dead giveaway.

sebastiennight
0 replies
3h43m

This is the result of RLHF (which is fine-tuning to make the output more palatable), but this is not what training is about.

The actual training process makes the model output be the likeliest output, and the introduction phrase you quoted would not come out of this process if there was no RLHF. See GPT3 (text-davinci-003 via API) which didn't have RLHF and would not say this, vs. ChatGPT which is fine-tuned for human preferences and thus will output such giveaways.

epidemian
1 replies
20h59m

We can adapt. There's already invite-only and semi-closed online communities. If the "mainstream" web becomes AI-flooded, where you'd you like to hang out / get information: the mainstream AI sludge, or the curated human communities?

grugagag
0 replies
5h33m

I think the safest space away from the gen AI sludge will be offline. But even that will make it vulnerable to its influence.

deathanatos
0 replies
21h14m

Back to webrings, then.

tbatchelli
0 replies
21h35m

The incentives will be largely gone when SEO-savvy AI bots will produce 10K articles in the time it takes you to write one, so your article will be mostly unfindable in search engines.

Human generated content will be outpaced by AI generated content by a large margin, so even though there'll still be human content, it'll be meaningless on aggregate.

camdenreslink
0 replies
21h45m

Non-AI content will probably become a marketing angle for certain websites and apps.

binary132
0 replies
21h50m

it’ll be utterly drowned out for the vast majority of users

lfmunoz4
11 replies
21h44m

Eventually the only purpose of AI as is the only purpose of computers is to enhance human creativity and productivity.

Isn't an LLM just a form of compressing and retrieving vast amounts of information? Is there anything more to it than that?

Don't think LLM itself will ever be able to out compete competent human + LLM. What you will see is that most humans are bad at writing books so they will use LLM and you will get mediocre books. Then there will expert humans that use LLM and are experts to create really good books. Pretty much what we see now. Difference is future you will a lot more mediocre everything. Even worse than it is now. I.e, if you look at Netflix there movies all mediocre. Good movies are the 1% that get released. With AI we'll just have 10 Netflix.

ben_w
8 replies
20h59m

Don't think LLM itself will ever be able to out compete competent human + LLM

Perhaps, perhaps not. The best performing chess AI, are not improved by having a human team up with them. The best performing Go AI, not yet.

LLMs are the new hotness in a fast-moving field, and LLMs may well get replaced next year by something that can't reasonably be described with those initials. But if they don't, then how far can the current Transformer style stuff go? They're already on-par with university students in many subjects just by themselves, which is something I have to keep repeating because I've still not properly internalised it. I don't know their upper limits, and I don't think anyone really does.

withinboredom
5 replies
20h49m

Oh man. Want to know an LLM's limits? Try discussing a new language feature you want to build for an established language. Even more fun is trying to discuss a language feature that doesn't exist yet, even after you provide relevant documentation and examples. It cannot do it. It gets stuck in a rut because the "right" answer is no longer statistically significant. It will get stuck in a local min/max that it cannot easily escape from.

ben_w
4 replies
20h43m

Want to know an LLM's limits?

Not a specific LLM's limits, the limits of LLMs as an architecture.

withinboredom
3 replies
10h30m

This is a limit of an LLM's architecture. It is based on statistics and can only answer statistical questions. If you want it to provide non-probable answers, an LLM won't work.

ben_w
1 replies
10h14m

Careful, statistics is a place where you need to be very careful about what exactly you mean: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand_paradox_(probability)

Your brain is also based on statistics. We also get stuck in a rut because the "right" answer is no longer statistically significant.

And yet this is not what limits our cognition.

Current LLMs are slow to update with new info, which is why they have cut-off dates so far in the past. Can that be improved to learn as fast (from as little data) as we do? Where's the optimal point on inferring from decreasing data before they show the same cognitive biases we do?

(Should they be improved, or would doing that simply bring in the same race dynamics as SEO?)

withinboredom
0 replies
1h40m

Even humans are not good at this. The US military has a test (DLAB) to figure out how good you are at taking in new information in regards to language -- to determine if it is worth teaching you new languages. Some humans are pretty good at this type of thing, but not all. Some humans can't even wrap their heads around algebra but will sell you a vacuum cleaner before you even realize you bought it.

The problem with LLMs is that there is one and it is always the same. Sure, you can get different ones and train your own, to a degree.

jdietrich
0 replies
8h4m

>It is based on statistics and can only answer statistical questions.

"LLM" isn't an architecture. The transformer architecture used by all the leading LLMs is Turing complete.

https://jmlr.org/papers/volume22/20-302/20-302.pdf

fire_lake
1 replies
12h17m

They're already on-par with university students in many subjects just by themselves, which is something I have to keep repeating because I've still not properly internalised it.

That’s because it’s not really true. There are glimpses of this but it trips up too often.

ben_w
0 replies
11h46m

So do the students :D

suriya-ganesh
1 replies
21h38m

This is a weird take. The paren comment said that, the Internet will not be the same with LLM generated slop. You're differentiating between LLM generated content and LLM + human combination.

Both will happen, with dire effects to the internet as a whole.

tomrod
0 replies
21h29m

Yeah, but the layout of singular value decomposition and similar algorithms and how pages rank among it is changing all the time. So, par for course. If aspect become less useful people move on. Things evolve, this is a good thing

manuelmoreale
9 replies
21h39m

So the snapshot of the web as it was in 2023 will be the last time we had original content, as soon we will have stop producing new content and just recycling existing content.

I’ve seen this take before and I genuinely don’t understand it. Plenty of people create content online for the simple reason they enjoy doing it.

They don’t do it for the traffic. They don’t do it for the money. Why should they stop now? Is not like AI is taking away anything from them.

jsheard
4 replies
21h29m

The question is how do you seperate that fresh signal from the noise going forward, at scale, when LLM output is designed to look like signal?

throwthrowuknow
2 replies
21h16m

You ask an LLM to do it. Not sarcasm, they’re quite good at ranking the quality of content already and you could certainly fine tune one to be very good at it. You also don’t need to filter out all of the machine written content, only the low quality and redundant samples. You have to do this anyways with human generated writing.

jsheard
1 replies
20h42m

I just tried asking ChatGPT to rate various BBC and NYT articles out of 10, and it consistently gave all of them a 7 or 8. Then I tried today's featured Wikipedia article, which got a 7, which it revised to an 8 after regenerating the respose. Then I tried the same but with BuzzFeeds hilariously shallow AI-generated travel articles[1] and it also gave those 7 or 8 every time. Then I asked ChatGPT to write a review of the iPhone 20, fed it back, and it gave itself a 7.5 out of 10.

I personally give this experiment a 7, maybe 8 out of 10.

[1] https://www.buzzfeed.com/astoldtobuzzy

czl
0 replies
5h7m

Yes, do not rely on it for assessments. It generates ratings of 7 or 8 because those ratings are statistically common in its training data.

manuelmoreale
0 replies
13h58m

You start from the people you know are not pushing out LLM generated nonsense and you go from there.

It’s gonna be a mess I can tell you already but it’s not going to be impossible.

There’s plenty of people who love writing and won’t stop.

simianparrot
2 replies
12h9m

Except AI in search is taking away significant traffic from everywhere, and it hits small blogs as well as nonprofits like encyclopaedias the hardest, while misrepresenting and “remixing” the actual content.

I’ve given up on the internet as a place to share my passions and hobbies for the most part, and while LLM’s weren’t the only reason, this current trend is a significant factor. I focus most of my attention on talking directly with people. And yes that does mean the information I share is guaranteed to be lost to time, but I’d rather it be shared in a meaningful manner in the moment than live on in an interpreted zombie form in perpetuity.

manuelmoreale
0 replies
9h21m

I have a blog. Been writing on that for 7 years. Should I care if AI in search is taking away traffic? If yes, why? I’m not writing for traffic. I write because I enjoy doing it. People find my way mostly thanks to other people linking to my site. And a solid % of traffic comes from RSS anyway.

I think giving up on the web because of AI is the wrong move. You should still create and focus more on connecting with others directly, when online. Get in touch, write emails, sign guestbooks.

I’m personally having great exchanges daily with people from all over via email and that won’t stop because of stupid ChatGPT or whatever.

And don’t get me wrong, it’s awesome to spend more time offline so if you want to do down that path it’s great.

I just don’t think it’s the only solution.

lupire
0 replies
5h35m

No one cares about your content being merged into the LLM slop. No one will notice whether your content is in or out.

So why harm your audience and your own baseline preferences just to spite a system that will never notice the attack?

krapp
0 replies
5h26m

A lot of people who create content don't want their content to feed AI. They love what they do and they don't want their work to support a system whose purpose is to debase and commoditize that work. The only way to avoid that is to never publish to the web, everything published to the web feeds AI. That is the web's purpose now.

Also there are plenty of people who create content because they love it, and also need to be able to make a living at it, because doing so at the level of quality they want is time consuming and expensive.

But mostly because even people who produce content because they love it want to share that content with the world and that will be nigh impossible when the only content anyone sees, and that any platform or algorithm surfaces, is AI generated. Why put in the effort and heart and work to create something only for an AI to immediately clone it for ad revenue? Why even bother?

i80and
8 replies
21h49m

Be VERY careful using Kagi this way -- I ended up turning off Kagi's AI features after it gave me some comically false information based on it misunderstanding the search results it based its answer on. It was almost funny -- I looked at its citations, and the citations said the opposite of what Kagi said, when the citations were even at all relevant.

It's a very "not ready for primetime" feature

userbinator
2 replies
15h17m

That applies to all AI, and even human-generated content. The crucial difference is that AI-generated content is far more confident and voluminous.

schleck8
1 replies
9h54m

I think I've only ever seen a single incorrect answer from Perplexity and I've probably made a thousand searches so far. It's very reliable

sebastiennight
0 replies
4h25m

May I ask how you know those 999 answers were correct, and how would you have been sure to catch a mistake, misinterpretation or hallucination in any of those?

gtirloni
2 replies
21h28m

It's not only Kagi AI but Kagi Search itself has been failing me a lot lately. I don't know what they are trying to do but the amount of queries that find zero results is impressive. I've submitted many search improvement reports in their feedback website.

Usually doing `g $query` right after gives me at least some useful results (even when using double quotes, which aren't guaranteed to work always).

freediver
1 replies
20h32m

This is a bug, appears 'randomly', being tracked here: https://kagifeedback.org/d/3387-no-search-results-found/

Happens about 200 times a day (0.04% of queries), very painful for the user we know, still trying to find root cause (we have limited debugging capabilities as not storing much information). it is on top of our minds.

sumedh
0 replies
9h39m

we have limited debugging capabilities as not storing much information)

Maybe give an option to those users who are reporting bugs to pass more debug info if the user agrees.

tbatchelli
1 replies
21h38m

Fair enough, I just ask for things that I can easily verify because I am already familiar with the domain. I just find I get to the answer faster.

i80and
0 replies
4h25m

Yeah, that's totally fair. I just think about all the people to whom I've had to explain LLM hallucinations, and the surprise in their faces, and this feature gives me some heebie-jeebies

vbezhenar
5 replies
18h42m

AlphaGo learned to play Go by playing with itself. Why couldn't LLM do the same? They got plenty of information to be used as a starting point, so surely they can figure out some novel information eventually.

treyd
3 replies
14h0m

LLMs aren't logically reasoning through an axiomatic system. Any patterns of logic they demonatrate are just recreated from patterns in input data. Effectively, they can't think new thoughts.

czl
0 replies
4h27m

Effectively, they (LLMs) can't think new thoughts.

This is true only if you assume that combining existing thought patterns is not new thinking. If they can't learn a certain pattern from training data, indeed they would be stuck. However, their training data keeps growing and updating, allowing each updated version to learn more patterns.

NiloCK
0 replies
13h35m

Do you think they sometimes hallucinate?

Do you think a collection of them can spot one another's hallucinations?

Do you think that, on occasion, some hallucinations will at least directionally be under explored good ideas?

ainoobler
0 replies
18h33m

AlphaGo was playing by very specific rules. What are the rules for LLMs to do the same?

vineyardmike
3 replies
21h57m

this also means that because we've exhausted the human generated content by now as means of training LLMs, new models will start getting trained with mostly the output of other LLMs

There is also a rapidly growing industry of people whose job it is to write content to train LMs against. I totally expect this to be a growing source of training data at the frontier instead of more generic crap from the internet.

Smaller models will probably stay trained on bigger models, however.

0x00cl
1 replies
21h20m

growing industry of people whose job it is to write content to train LMs against

Do you have an example of this?

How do they differentiate content written by a person v/s written by LLM, I'd expect there is going to be people trying to "cheat" by using LLMs to generate content.

vineyardmike
0 replies
20h49m

How do they differentiate content written by a person v/s written by LLM

Honestly, not sure how to test it, but this is B2B contracts, so hopefully there's some quality control. It's part of the broad "training data labeling" business, so presumably the industry has some terms in contracts.

ScaleAI, Appen are big providers that have worked with OpenAI, Google, etc.

https://openai.com/index/openai-partners-with-scale-to-provi...

tacocataco
0 replies
13h26m

If we owned our own data truly, we could all have passive income.

Thorentis
1 replies
17h41m

I wonder how much of Wikipedia has been contributed to using AI by now. Almost makes me want to keep a 2023 snapshot of Wikipedia in cold storage.

sebastiennight
0 replies
3h36m

FYI, you can. There are mobile apps that allow you to keep a downloaded version of the entire encyclopaedia, and it fits most modern phones.

FeepingCreature
1 replies
18h30m

Communal spaces are fine, communal spaces will continue to be fine. Forums are fine. IRC is fine. The only thing that's dying is Google. Google is not the Internet.

RiverCrochet
0 replies
5h36m

It's crazy how easy Google made the Internet for everyone in the 2000s. People got spoiled.

visarga
0 replies
12h42m

new models will start getting trained with mostly the output of other LLMs

That is a naive, flawed way to do it. You need to filter and verify synthetic examples. How? First you empower the LLM, then you judge it. Human in the loop (LLM chat rooms), more tokens (CoT), tool usage (code, search, RAG), other models acting as judges and filters.

This problem is similar to scientific publication. Many papers get published, but they need to pass peer review, and lots of them get rejected. Just because someone wrote it into a paper doesn't automatically make it right. Sometimes we have to wait a year to see if adoption supports the initial claims. For medical applications testing is even harder. For startups it's a blood bath in the first few years.

There are many ways to select the good from the bad. In the case of AI text, validation can be done against the real world, but it's a slow process. It's so much easier to scrape decades worth of already written content than to iterate slowly to validate everything. AlphaZero played millions of self games to find a strategy better than human.

In the end the whole ideation-validation process is a search for trustworthy ideas. In search you interact with the search space and make your way towards the goal. Search validates ideas eventually. AI can search too, as evidenced by many Alpha model (AlphaTensor, AlphaFold, AlphaGeometry...). There was a recent paper about prover-verifier systems trained adversarially like GANs, that might be one possible approach. https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.13692v1

unyttigfjelltol
0 replies
21h39m

My experience is that AI tends to surface original content on the web that, in search engines, remains hidden and inaccessible behind a wall of SEOd, monetized, low-value middlemen. The AI I've been using (Perplexity) thumbnails the content and provides a link if I want the source.

The web will be different, and I don't count SEO out yet, but... maybe we'll like AI as a middleman better than what's on the web now.

throwthrowuknow
0 replies
21h4m

But this also means that because we've exhausted the human generated content

Putting aside the question of whether dragnet web scraping for human generated content is necessary to train next gen models, OpenAI has a massive source of human writing through their ChatGPT apps.

sweca
0 replies
19h43m

There will also be a lot of human + AI content I imagine.

recursive
0 replies
14h16m

I use LLM output from kagi too. But given the rate of straight-up factually incorrect stuff that comes out of it, I need it to come with a credible source that I can verify. If not, I'm not taking any of it seriously.

miki123211
0 replies
20h22m

In an infinitely large world with an infinitely large number of monkeys typing an infinite number of words on an infinite number of keyboards, "just index everything and threat it as fact" isn't a viable strategy any more.

We are now much closer to that world than we ever were before.

meiraleal
0 replies
20h2m

Google really missed the opportunity of becoming ChatGPT. LLMs are the best interface for search but not yet the best interface for ads so it makes sense for them to not make the jump. ChatGPT and Claude are today what Google was in 2000 and should have evolved to.

eddd-ddde
0 replies
3h56m

Humans have trained on human generated content for centuries.

What makes it impossible for AI to succeed?

arjie
0 replies
19h53m

I don’t mind writing original content like the old web.

And there’s obviously other people who do this too https://github.com/kagisearch/smallweb/blob/main/smallweb.tx...

I don’t get much traffic but I don’t mind. The thing that really made it for me is sites like this http://www.math.sci.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/m-mat/AKECHI/index.htm...

They just give you such an insight into another human being in this raw fashion you don’t get through a persona built website.

My own blog is very similar. Haphazard and unprofessional and perhaps one day slurped into an LLM or successor (I have no problem with this).

Perhaps one day some other guy will read my blog like I read Makoto Matsumoto’s. If they feel that connection across time then that will suffice! And if they don’t, then the pleasure of writing will do.

And if that works for me, it’ll work for other people too. Previously finding them was hard because there was no one on the Internet. Now it’s hard because everyone’s on it. But it’s still a search problem.

SilverCurve
0 replies
21h24m

There will be demand for search, ads and social media that can get you real humans. If it is technologically feasible, someone will do it.

Most likely we will see an arms race where some companies try to filter out AI content while others try to imitate humans as best they could.

Salgat
0 replies
12h29m

Mind you they will be trained on what humans have filtered as being acceptable content. Most of the trash produced by ML that hits the web is quickly buried and never referenced.

ClassyJacket
0 replies
7h27m

So the snapshot of the web as it was in 2023 will be the last time we had original content

The pre-AI internet will be like scientists looking for pre-nuclear steel.

Animats
9 replies
22h25m

That's an inflection point, all right. OpenAI's customers can now at least break even.

Of course, it means a flood of crap content.

selalipop
3 replies
20h43m

I was going to disagree with the article because the content 4o-mini generates isn't there yet.

I run a content site that is fully AI generated, https://tryspellbound.com

It writes content that's worth reading, but it's extremely expensive to run. It requires chain of thought, a RAG pipeline, self-revision and more.

I spent most of yesterday testing it and pushed it to beta, but the writing feels stilted and clearly LLM generated. The inflection point will come for content people actually want to read, but it's not going to be GPT-4o mini.

RockRobotRock
1 replies
18h51m

I had a lot of fun with NovelAI. I believe at the time it was using GPT2, and I loaded in fine tuned models for the canon of choice I wanted to experience (trained on fanfic, and things of that sort).

How does spellbound work?

selalipop
0 replies
17h24m

Spellbound is an instruct model to NovelAI's completion model: you enter commands which in turn dictate what happens to your character, then the AI models how others would react to you

mort96
0 replies
8h6m

The point isn't to generate good content "that's worth reading". The point is to generate an endless stream of slop which looks plausible enough to get you ad impressions.

ainoobler
3 replies
22h11m

The Internet has been flooded with crap content for some time now so AI is simply accelerating the existing trends.

ToucanLoucan
2 replies
20h42m

Given the younger generations increasing ambivalence to the non-stop fire hose of bullshit that the vast majority of the platform internet already is, and given that we're now forging the tools to make said fire hose larger by numerous factors, I don't think this is going to be the boon long-term that a lot of people seem to think it is.

muzani
0 replies
20h26m

90% of everything is crap.

Itch.io has almost no crap filters so all you find is crap. Steam lets anyone publish but you rarely come across any crap. Many PC game devs know that the income overwhelmingly comes from Steam vs every other site put together.

Unfortunately, this just gives more power to the walled gardens.

ainoobler
0 replies
18h53m

It is extremely ironic that computers which operate by the logic of boolean arithmetic and algebra are now used to generate bullshit instead of adding rigor and checking existing written content for basic falsehoods and logical fallacies.

notatoad
0 replies
20h19m

a flood of crap content

so, status quo? this sort of content only has value because google links to it when people search, and because google runs an ad network that allows monetizing it. google is also working furiously to provide these same AI-generated answers in their SERP, so they can eliminate this and monetize the answers directly instead of paying out to random third parties.

i'm pretty skeptical that this ai-generated content will ever be monetizable in the way the article suggests, simply because google is better at it. if you're a human making your living by writing articles that are indistinguishable from ai-generated content, then you might be harmed by this but for most people this inflection point is not going to be a noticeable change.

surfingdino
8 replies
21h51m

So it will now be cost-effective to connect the exhaust of ChatGPT to its inlet and watch as the quality of output deteriorates over time while making money off ads. Whatever rocks your boat, I guess. How long before the answer to every prompt is "baaa baaa baaa"?

throwthrowuknow
6 replies
20h55m

You’re sadly misinformed if you think training an LLM consists of dumping the unfiltered sewage straight from the web into a training run. Sure, it’s been done in early experiments but after you see the results you learn the value of data curation.

GaggiX
3 replies
19h46m

It's clearly working because the models are only getting better, believing that the performance of these models would fall at some point in the future is just very delusional.

Slyfox33
2 replies
18h37m

Weren't they just getting better mostly because they were being scaled up? There's no way to do that once you've exhausted all of the data. Besides progress has slowed down at this point anyway.

energy123
0 replies
12h57m

Not only. Look at the subject of this thread, GPT-4o mini.

I'm optimistic about synthetic data giving us another big unlock, anyway. The text on the internet is not that reasoning dense. And they have a snapshot of pre-2023 that is fixed and guaranteed not to decay. I don't think one extra year of good quality internet is what will make or break AGI efforts.

The harder bottleneck will be energy. It's relatively doable to go from 1GW to 10GW but the next jump to 100GW becomes insanely difficult.

GaggiX
0 replies
18h15m

GPT-3 was 173B parameters and it's very bad compare to much smaller models we have nowadays, the data and the compute play a giant role, also I doubt you would need to train a model further after you have trained it on absolute everything (but we are very far from that).

muzani
0 replies
19h43m

That article itself might be part of the degradation. It mentions at least four times that the contract was canceled as if it's something new. I wonder if someone just dumped a bunch of facts and ran it through a spin cycle a few times with AI to get a long form article they didn't expect anyone to read.

the_gipsy
0 replies
21h37m

Baa baa baaa baaaaaa.

1024core
5 replies
21h39m

I don't know who these people are who can't even do basic arithmetic.

an estimated annual revenue of $1,550 for 50,000 monthly page views.

This is approximately ~$0.00022 earned per page view.

No, this is $0.002583 earned per page view, a ~12x difference. Looks like the author divided by 12 twice.

yard2010
2 replies
20h3m

The answer is clear - a hallucinating AI wrote this post

tempaccount420
0 replies
10h0m

Any self-respecting AI would not make a mistake like this. This is the work of a human.

GaggiX
0 replies
19h56m

The post was probably written by a mere human (they do sometimes hallucinate quite badly).

latortuga
0 replies
21h15m

Snarky but possibly true reply: perhaps someone had AI ~write~ hallucinate this article for them.

GaggiX
0 replies
21h31m

Well that's even better for the point of the article.

moffkalast
4 replies
22h23m

For example, putting in 50k page views a month, with a Finance category, gives a potential yearly earnings of $2,000.

I'm going to take the median across all categories, which is an estimated annual revenue of $1,550 for 50,000 monthly page views.

This is approximately ~$0.00022 earned per page view.

The problem is... this doesn't take into account a million AI generated sites suddenly all competing for the same amount of eyes as before, driving revenue to zero very quickly. It'll be worth something for a bit and then everyone will catch up.

TremendousJudge
1 replies
22h0m

Many people in the history of the internet have made a lot of money by doing something that was "worth something for a bit and then everybody caught up"

adw
0 replies
21h54m

You just described basically the entire trading strategy of most high frequency traders.

SoftTalker
0 replies
20h43m

The same number of eyes will still be driven to a subset of content by algorithmic influence. Whether search engines, algorithmically-generated "viral" popularity, or whatever. Most people are consuming whatever is placed in front of their faces. That content will still have value, the trick will be getting your content into that subset.

Andrex
0 replies
21h13m

Presumably the assumption is that (as with capitalism) an ever-growing population will paper over all problems.

rbax
3 replies
22h45m

This assumes a future where users are still depending on search engines or some comparative tool. Profiting off the current status quo. I would also be curious how user behavior will evolve to identify, evade, and ignore AI generated content. Some quasi arms race we'll be in for a long time.

Oras
1 replies
22h29m

That depends on how many users are aware of the AI content.

HN is not a reflection of the world.

ben_w
0 replies
22h9m

True, but ChatGPT has been interviewed by a national television broadcaster in the UK at least, so I think it broke out of our bubble no later than December 2022: https://youtu.be/GYeJC31JcM0?si=gdmlxbtQnxAvBc1i

binkHN
0 replies
19h31m

This has already been happening for quite some time with users ignoring Google search and searching Reddit directly. The irony is that, I assume, most of Reddit's income right now is coming from content licensing deals with AI companies.

m3kw9
3 replies
22h13m

The rate limits though 15m tokens per month in the top tier isn’t really scale

m3kw9
0 replies
19h8m

You are right, it’s per minute

refulgentis
0 replies
22h7m

I strongly assume there are higher rate limits, more than once I've seen the Right Kind of Startup, (buzzworthy, ex-FAANG with $X00m in investment in a market that's always been free, think Arc browser), make a plea on twitter because they launched a feature for free, were getting rate limited, and wanted a contact at OpenAI to raise their limit.

Arc is an excellent example because AFAIK it's still free, and I haven't heard a single complaint about throttling, availability, etc., and they've since gone on to treat it as a marketing tentpole instead of experiment.

zackmorris
2 replies
21h33m

From what I can tell, all scalable automated work falls in value towards zero over time.

For example, a person could write a shareware game over a few weeks or months, sell it for $10, buy advertising at a $0.25 customer acquisition cost (CAC) and scale to make a healthy income in 1994. A person could drop ship commodities like music CDs and scale through advertising with a CAC of perhaps $2.50 and still make enough to survive in 2004. A person could sell airtime and make speaking appearances as an influencer with a CAC of $25 and have a good chance of affording an apartment in 2014. A person can network and be part of inside deals and make a million dollars yearly by being already wealthy in a major metropolitan city with a CAC of $250 in 2024.

The trend is that work gets harder and harder for the same pay, while scalable returns go mainly to people who already have money. AI will just hasten the endgame of late stage capitalism.

Note that not all economic systems work this way. Isn't it odd how tech that should be simplifying our lives and decreasing the cost of living is just devaluing our labor to make things like rent more expensive?

rachofsunshine
0 replies
21h28m

It's only odd if you model economics as a cooperative venture between a society trying to build better collective outcomes, and not as a competitive system. Additional capability and information can never hurt a single actor taken in isolation. But added capability and information given to multiple actors in a competitive game can make them all worse off.

As a simple example, imagine a Prisoner's Dilemma, except neither side knows defecting is an option (so in effect both players are playing a single-move game where "cooperate" is the only option). Landing on cooperate-cooperate in this case is easy (indeed, it's the only possible outcome). But as soon as you reveal the ability to defect to both players, the defect-defect equilibrium becomes available.

oblio
0 replies
21h26m

If you read the Black Swan by Taleb, it stops being weird. He points this out and dubs it Extremistan, where small advantages accrue to oversized returns.

We will need humane solutions to this, because the non humane ones are starting to become visible (armed drone swarms driven by AI).

gnicholas
2 replies
21h14m

Won't people who hate ads just choose to cut out the middleman and use 4o mini on their own?

yard2010
1 replies
20h1m

What makes you think it won't have ads or "sponsored" content?

gnicholas
0 replies
13h2m

There may well be tiers like on NFLX, where some are ad-sponsored and some are not. But seeing as how rapidly the free/open models catch up to prior-generation proprietary models, I doubt there will be much margin or room for ads on anything but the latest/greatest.

aydyn
2 replies
21h48m

I read that title _very_ wrong as injecting ads directly into ChatGPT responses. How hilariously dystopian would that be?

LeoPanthera
0 replies
21h18m

Microsoft Copilot already does this.

normaler
1 replies
18h5m

I am enjoying this Moment in time where I can ask chatgpt product related questions and not get ad biased suggestions. I think there is ~ half a year left

blirio
0 replies
18h3m

there are open source models. If/when chatgpt has adds you will probably be able to just run something equiv with open source tools.

loremaster
1 replies
22h27m

This has been possible for well over a year, just not with OpenAI’s API specifically.

transformi
0 replies
22h24m

Exactly! Even with local LLM running on the browser/client side.

huevosabio
1 replies
21h36m

This analysis implicitly holds supply constant. But supply isn't constant, it will balloon. So the price per impression will tank.

So, on the margin, this will drive human created content out since it is now less profitable to do it by hand than it was before.

PostOnce
0 replies
17h19m

This assumes that "AI content" and "human content" are of equal value, which is still up for debate and I'd argue not true.

That means this will devalue AI content and ad impressions, but not necessarily human content, if people in fact value it.

zombiwoof
0 replies
21h29m

Definitely the future of Twitter

winddude
0 replies
20h56m

Ad blockers, 30-40% of internet users. getting traffic... if it was that easy everyone would do it, and diminishing returns.

shinycode
0 replies
6h6m

Why would ad companies not generate themselves the content ? It make no sense what he is saying. They pay for ads because today they can’t write said content. If now they can why pay other people ? I wouldn’t be surprised to see ads injected in LLM answers, that’s the logical way to go. Free LLM with ads

seydor
0 replies
8h17m

Do we really want ads that suggest the wrong product or make up imaginary products and prices ?

I 'd rather be exploited by google

sergiotapia
0 replies
22h3m

Stuck culture? Meet REAL stuck culture.

mtnGoat
0 replies
22h22m

Generating content on the fly is already happening, has been for a while. Word spinners used with a script that grabs the content of the first 5 Google results, Wikipedia, etc, has been around a long time and Google indexed the incomprehensible garbage it created.

Lot cost models just lowered the bar of entry.

mska
0 replies
19h52m

When views are low the math doesn't make sense but it is very possible to get a lot of views through AI generated + human reviewed content.

We're trying to do that with PulsePost (https://pulsepost.io) and the biggest challenge is unique content. Given a keyword or a niche topic, AI models tend to generate similar content within similar subjects. Changing the temperature helps to a degree but the biggest difference comes from adding internet access. Even with same prompt, if the model can access the internet, it can find unique ideas within the same topic and with human review it becomes a high value article.

mo_42
0 replies
21h40m

Will the future of the internet be entirely dynamically generated AI blogs in response to user queries?

I still enjoy commenting on HN and writing some thoughts on my blog. I'm pretty sure that there are many other people too.

At some point everything that is not cryptographically singed by someone I know and trust needs to be considered AI generated.

Maybe AI-generated content might have better quality than generated by humans. But then it's likely that I'm under the influence of some bigger corporation that just needs some eyeballs.

kingkongjaffa
0 replies
22h28m

Well, computer hardware was stagnating without a forcing function. Running LLM’s locally is a strong incentive to get hardware more powerful and run your own local models without any ADs.

julianeon
0 replies
19h12m

This article is weird clickbait which, even weirder, worked.

It seems to assume a world where SEO entrepreneurs where ready to churn out million-page sites, but the cost per query were blocking them. There is no marginal cost, no SEO cost to adding another page, as long as a couple people visit it and "pay it off".

In the real world, it doesn't work like that. Whatever monstrosity was created like this would not do well in the search engines. So no meaningful threshold has been passed, in terms of the cost for AI generation.

People are creating lots of AI content, but not like this - not bottom tier generic SEO pages which will barely rank and aren't that compelling in an already saturated Internet.

Incidentally the real money seems to be in generating AI images and, eventually, video: much better return for your money.

gpvos
0 replies
21h57m

We're doomed.

godelski
0 replies
18h11m

So this has been an inflection point that has concerned me, specifically in regards to a few types of sites: news and instruction sites.

News sites are already often shit and parasitic. I mean parasitic because if you go to a free news site (say Yahoo news, etc) you often see rewritten articles that originated from paid sites (e.g. NYT). The pure ad-supported sites are typical enshitification that degrades journalism and increases sensationalism because they don't need to write unique articles, but you should sensationalize them to drive up views. You also don't have to hire journalists to get story details. So news most people read degrades and you get very limited views.

The problem here is that this paradigm barely works because you have to pay real people to write those rephrased articles. So while it costs more to run the NYT where you need to hire investigative journalists and send people to physical places, there is a bound on that difference. But if you paste in a NYT article into GPT4 and ask it to summarize it, you'll get very similar quality to yahoo news (or even CNN, MSNBC, or Fox. Which all also do this leeching, but less of an issue). I'm sure people realize how easy it is to scrape NYT and then post the GPT output. This is in spirit no different than if you just used archie.is, but large scale.

The same is true for many tutorial sites or cooking sites, etc. I'm sure many of you also get annoyed at the google search results that are just stackover flow posts embedded on a different site or the Medium articles (especially paid ones) that are also just SO posts and can show up higher in the listing.

The issue becomes: how do we generate and disseminate new information in this paradigm? Okay, free blog posts aren't "hurt" because they have no income, but people build reputation through them and it gets many people jobs. But what about others that do make a living through this? Is this not similar Jack Conte's (Patreon co-founder/CEO and 1/2 of the band Pomplamoose) argument about creating content "for the algorithm" vs for "yourself/your fans/fun/etc". That it is taking some of the human elements out of the art/entertainment/content. (Can totally disagree with his argument btw). Personally I'm on the side of Jack. Our goal shouldn't (now) be to just serve people search results or just generate content for content's sake, but to now focus on serving people high quality content and high quality results. Google indexed the entire internet. People gamed the system (SEO) and now google results are shit, youtube results are shit, and everything is shit. We don't need more content (who uses page 2 on Google?), but we need to have better content. [1]

I think we need to ask: is this what we want? If not, then what are we going to do about it?

If we are okay, then I think someone should create a super-website where you just have information about just about everything. There definitely is utility in it. But the question is at what cost.

[0] https://youtu.be/hwn6-8XpIuE

[1] I think most people want this. But the problem is you're not going to find market forces showing this because there is no product doing this. Or if there are, they aren't well known and could be confusing to use and/or a wide variety of problems (UI/UX do matter). But it requires reading between the lines and market research a la talking to people and finding out what they want, not a la data. You need both.

ein0p
0 replies
17h17m

I tried it on technical queries and it hallucinated like crazy. Probably ok for narrow tasks, but I wouldn’t expose it through the main UI like they did - people expect some degree of intelligence there.

K0balt
0 replies
21h3m

The enshitification of search will drive queries directly to AI, either local or centralised. This will provide a before unknown nexus of opinion/ perception / idea control as the primary research tool will no longer return a spectrum of differing ideas and references, but rather a consolidated opinion formed by the AIs operators.

This has really dystopian vibes, since it centralizes opinion and “factuality” in an authoritative but potentially extremely biased or even manipulatively deceptive manner.

OTOH it will provide opportunities for competitive solutions to query answering.

Havoc
0 replies
20h44m

Don’t think you’re getting 50k views pm in finance space with some “you’re an expert blog writer” AI spiel

93po
0 replies
21h55m

websim looks cool but requires a google login to even try it, i hate the internet in 2024