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Gilead shot prevents all HIV cases in trial

kbos87
89 replies
19h24m

We’ve been on the road to this for a while, and it’s so exciting to see. I switched to injectable prep a few months ago to avoid having to take a daily pill - it’s an injection once every two months, and my doctor told me that the guidance might soon change to once every three months.

It sounds simple but for a lot of people it’s not a trivial thing to take a pill every day or adhere to a strict appointment schedule to get an injection. I’d imagine that adoption & compliance goes way up if it’s that much easier.

nerdjon
73 replies
19h4m

I have been debating on switching to the shot but Havnt yet.

Just to avoid the accidentally missing a dose or the chance interactions (lower efficacy) with dairy and many fiber supplements, this would be amazing.

Would be nice to never need to worry about that or think, hey I missed a dose is it actually true that it doesn’t matter or do I need to wait a full week. Half a week?

My only concern here though, if it’s in your system for 6 months what if you have an adverse reaction or just some unpleasant symptoms.

schlipity
70 replies
18h8m

I'm going to assume a bit and for that I'll apologize in advance. I'm assuming you're in a high risk group for HIV. Why not just use condoms? Is it because they aren't 100% effective?

iknowstuff
26 replies
17h4m

Condoms are less effective at HIV prevention, but also they’re unpleasant and don’t prevent most STIs because of oral sex. Nobody’s giving or getting head with a condom. People who stay on top of preventative measures tend to not bother with condoms since PrEP became prevalent.

Preventative:

1. Gardasil 9 (vaccine against 9 strains of HPV, prevents genital warts and cancers caused by HPV)

2. Monkeypox vaccine

3. Meningitis ACYW vax

4. Meningitis B vax (35% effective against gonorrhea)

5. doxyPEP (two pills of doxycycline taken after sex, 90% effective against syphilis, 80% chlamydia, 50% gonorrhea)

6. PrEP (prevents HIV infections)

7. and the usual suite of vaccines against the rest like hepatitis A/B, mumps etc

Treatment of the bacterial ones (which transmit through oral too):

1. syphilis - butt shot of penicillin 2. chlamydia - 1 pill of an antibiotic 3. gonorrhea - a week of doxycycline pills or one butt shot of ceftriaxone

Remaining: HSV. Half of the population has it, so no big deal. Condoms dont prevent it either.

As for hepatitis: even though it requires blood contact and as such is not necessarily considered an STI, hepatitis c is curable these days thanks to DAAs taken over the course of 8-12 weeks. a/b have vaccines.

cycomanic
9 replies
14h45m

5. doxyPEP (two pills of doxycycline taken after sex, 90% effective against syphilis, 80% chlamydia, 50% gonorrhea)

Preventatively using antibiotics is a horrible idea, for one it increases the risk of creating resisitant strains, and we are already running out of antibiotics (especially broadband ones). Moreover, antibiotics in general are known to mess with you gut biome whose importance we are just beginning to understand (we know it plays a role in many physical and mental illnesses for example). Then there are the side effects which for doxycyline include diarrhea, increased risk of bowel cancer, higher sensitivity to the sun (and associated risk of skin cancer).

loopdoend
5 replies
13h55m

Been taking it every day for 15 years with no problems and actually I seem to look 10 years younger than everyone in my age group.

simianparrot
1 replies
12h47m

Please tell me this is a joke / satire

rswskg
0 replies
5h57m

No, there are many many people who are this entitled.

vasco
0 replies
12h54m

The problems are for humanity not for you, with spurious use of antibiotics. Resistant strains can kill everyone.

snowwrestler
0 replies
5h32m

This is really surprising to me since there is a lot of evidence that oral antibiotics can mess up your gut flora, creating all sorts of bad side effects. Do you have any digestive issues?

alwa
0 replies
2h23m

The people responding to this seem to assume you’re doing so for funsies, which might be true. But that’s not what you said. So for their benefit, it’s worth pointing out that daily doxycycline is a pretty normal therapy for a range of chronic stuff—malaria prophylaxis, rosacea and skin that’s prone to infections, I’m sure there’s more.

If loopdoend’s doing this, it feels like a good bet that there’s a doctor in the mix judging that it’s medically appropriate for them.

verulito
0 replies
27m

antibiotics are toxic in general, likely affecting way more than bowels. many are ototoxic for example.

bobthepanda
0 replies
2h23m

Doxy is already prescribed in the US as a treatment regimen for acne, so if that’s going to be allowed STI prevention seems way more useful.

The overuse of antibiotics is mostly in farm animals, which represent 73% of global antibiotics use, and 90% of American antibiotics use.

alwa
0 replies
2h28m

This all feels really general—precipitated on the idea that there’s one Right Way for everyone to use these drugs, about which the doctors and public health professionals recommending doxyPEP are somehow uninformed.

Suppose you’re immunocompromised. Wouldn’t it be worth the diarrhea to avoid infections your body couldn’t fight off?

Suppose you’re in a situation where you’re having lots of opportunities for infection. Whether you can or can’t control that situation, the end result is the same: you know your body is going to be challenged by infectious disease frequently in a way that most people’s bodies aren’t. Isn’t it plausible that the infectious agent may have less opportunity to evolve if you didn’t contract it as frequently?

Different forms of therapy might be both individually and collectively optimal for people in different situations. What’s right for a person who isn’t at risk isn’t the same as what’s right for a person who is at risk.

pknomad
5 replies
15h42m

Inefficacy against HSV is interesting. I had no idea. Why is it ineffective?

gumby
2 replies
15h35m

Oral sex is a big reason. Michael Douglas got tongue cancer* from HPV.

Actually it appears the 9-polyvalent HPV vaccine protects against multiple cancers but insurance won't pay for it once your outside the age window.

* originally he said "throat cancer" at the advice of his agent!

[edited: wityl pointed out I’d typed HSV for some reason]

wityl
1 replies
15h21m

You are thinking of HPV, HSV is herpes.

There is no vaccine, it doesn't cause cancer (that we know of, at least not like HPV), and spreads via skin contact on the genital area.

Since fluids are not required for HPV or HSV and it's present on the area that a condom won't cover, condoms aren't effective for either.

gumby
0 replies
14h42m

Yes it was a brain fart — fixed!

projektfu
0 replies
3h55m

I looked through the literature and it seems that condoms are quite effective at preventing HSV infection when used, especially from male to female (on the order of 99%), and less so for female to male (around 60-70%). I would suspect the reason for failure is behavioral. People probably don't apply the condom until after most of foreplay is over and HSV-2 can be transmitted during "outercourse".

creer
0 replies
9h54m

HSV-1 and -2 transmit through contact from skin location to skin. Including through asymptomatic shedding. Only sometimes is that location covered by a condom - in location and in timing.

See also: Wrestlers' "Herpes gladiatorum" which is just HSV-1. Which demonstrates how HSV-1 survives for transmission far more easily or broadly than just genital contact. Is there "HSV-2 gladiatorum"? Apparently it's usually HSV-1 but probably yes - neither HSV-1 or HSV-2 are really location specific.

gumby
2 replies
15h31m

Nobody’s giving or getting head with a condom.

In the early days of AIDS (wasn't called HIV back then) the recommendation was to use a condom or dental dam (depending on the hardware of the recipient). That's how I learned what a dental dam was. Later it was suggested that plastic food wrap would work (the jokes just write themselves).

Sadly the ubiquity of paper toilet sheet covers in US bathrooms dates back to the 80s due to straight paranoia over AIDs + widespread and overt anti-gay prejudice, so every time I see one of those dispensers I grit my teeth.

Reminds me of the early days of COVID (not the anti-gay part, but the weird practices when nobody really had yet a good theory of what's going on).

everforward
0 replies
3h7m

HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) is the virus, AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome) is the syndrome caused by untreated HIV. Everybody with AIDS has HIV, but not everyone with HIV has AIDS.

The reason for the reversal in terms is treatment options. When HIV was first found, there were no treatments so AIDS was inevitable. Nowadays, medication can permanently prevent HIV from progressing to AIDS, so AIDS is much less common than HIV.

close04
0 replies
32m

In the early days of AIDS (wasn't called HIV back then)

You might be thinking of “GRID” (gay related immuno deficiency), the original name of AIDS when it was believed it only affects gay people. Once the virus causing the illness was identified it was called HIV.

giantg2
2 replies
15h6m

PreP actually reduces the chances of acquiring other viral STDs to varying degrees.

alwa
1 replies
2h2m

Although we have to admit the moral hazard element too: by altering the risk calculus, it does seem to have helped weaken cultural norms around condom use and risky sexual behavior. Business is booming for bacterial infections.

Personally I’d say that’s a pretty good tradeoff: fear, stigma, and death for a different problem that’s more an annoyance than a mortal threat right now.

giantg2
0 replies
1h2m

I think another overlooked portion is that we shouldn't be using meds (for infectious diseases) to enable fun (which seems common with sex). Eventually those meds will lose effectiveness, that's just evolution. Then the people who really do need them will be out of luck.

anjel
2 replies
15h43m

...And your odds of making it through that pharma-minefield with zero side effects are not encouraging.

Worse still--large scale casual sex is a great way to introduce new, novel and un-contemplated STDs into the population. STDs are opportunistic that way, just ask Mr. triple-resistant Gonorrhea.

It's decidedly not the way I want it to be, but that's just how it works. For casual sex to be safe I think its more like "Hi, please spit into this tube so we can get busy" and red means HIV, Green means Monkeypox, comprehensively.

autoexec
1 replies
14h53m

It's not just about casual sex though is it. There are many people in long term monogamous relationships with a partner who has an STD, but who don't want to catch it themselves. Vaccines and medications can allow them to have active sex lives while staying healthy and in some cases even help women go through pregnancy and childbirth while preventing the spread of an STD to the child. For these people minor side effects (and at times even more severe ones) can be entirely worthwhile.

tcmart14
0 replies
3h44m

Or perhaps maybe a future for occupational health. My wife is a nurse. Needle sticks happen. When it does, she has to get tested, full works. The hospital pays for that and the treatment. Maybe with a shot that lasts a year rather than the current 2-3 months(?), hospital staff can just opt that route then the test and treatment. Apparently the treatment is rather gnarly.

droptablemain
0 replies
18m

Pardon my puritanism, but this seems like an awful lot to put your body through to get your rocks off and engage in this sort of indulgence.

granfaffalo
25 replies
17h26m

I'm not going to make such an assumption, but two reasons people prefer PrEP generally:

1. in sex work, "not using a condom" is an "extra" that clients will pay quite a bit for

2. people who "party and play" tend to be in an altered state of consciousness that biases against use of condoms

justinclift
16 replies
17h3m

in sex work, "not using a condom" is an "extra" that clients will pay quite a bit for

To me, that is such a weird thing.

People literally paying money for something that can damage them for life and may even kill them.

Though the same can be said of addictive things (smoking comes to mind), is this some form of that maybe?

mattmaroon
7 replies
16h3m

Risk always entails a premium.

mypalmike
6 replies
15h24m

Not generally, no. Driving that car with the sketchy suspension is cheaper than getting it fixed.

vidarh
2 replies
8h44m

This is obtuse. The intent of expressing that if you are paying someone else for a service, it predisposes them to demand a higher price if you're asking them to take additional risks if they have any negotiating power at all was pretty obvious.

mypalmike
1 replies
7h37m

The discussion was about the additional risk to the customer, not the vendor.

vidarh
0 replies
2h51m

The comment above the one you replied to was. The comment you replied to was not, and it'd be reasonable to suggest it didn't really address what it replied to. But its intent was clear.

danielxt
1 replies
10h24m

it does, because the chances of you needing expensive medical care after using the sketchy vehicle go up

thfuran
0 replies
6h1m

If you drive faster still in a car that also lacks crumple zones and airbags, your expected medical bill probably decreases.

amyjess
0 replies
1h43m

A better analogy would be to buy a '60s sports car that predates nearly all modern safety tech at auction for $$$$$$ instead of just buying a 2024 Corolla with modern safety features.

shiroiushi
1 replies
16h49m

People literally paying money for something that can damage them for life and may even kill them.

You could say the same about sky-diving.

justinclift
0 replies
13h5m

Yep, sure could. :)

pasquinelli
1 replies
4h40m

To me, that is such a weird thing.

i'm confused. are we acting like we don't full-well know that using a condom sucks for everyone involved? it's like wondering why people didn't like using a face mask during covid: because it sucks. that, of course, is independent from whether it's prudent, but if something sucks, it's no surprise when people avoid it, right?

sdwr
0 replies
2h34m

There's that middle ground!

wvh
0 replies
1h36m

Maybe you want the real thing. I get that, even though I have never had sex with a prostitute or fall into the risky sex category. I'm not going to go as far as to be childishly disrespectful and say I'd rather die doing the real thing, but I do understand the apprehension of using artificial barriers during the most intimate act know to humankind.

vidarh
0 replies
8h40m

People have a risk level they're comfortable with, and sometimes people feel added excitement pushing right up to or past that level, and sometimes they're just happy to pay extra for something they feel is within that risk level if they enjoy it more.

We all choose to take risks all the time and often pay for the privilege, sometimes explicitly seeking out the thrill of a risk.

I'm guessing what makes this specific scenario weird for you is more likely that this risk doesn't seem worthwhile to you relative to what you get from it (and I agree with that - I've never had an appetite for taking risks with STDs)

sureIy
0 replies
59m

Being horny also counts as being “in an altered state of consciousness that biases against use of condoms.”

As someone who took the condom off in a risky situation recently, there’s no comparison between the on and off feeling. It’s like licking a piece of candy vs crushing it with your teeth and sucking it all at once.

mock-possum
0 replies
1h25m

Yes but it feels good

isoprophlex
6 replies
8h37m

people who "party and play" tend to be in an altered state of consciousness that biases against use of condoms

Maybe... they shouldn't, then? You also don't go shooting your guns or driving your motorcycle when drunk, even though it might be more fun?

throwaway7ahgb
1 replies
6h8m

Why not just not have sex unless trying to procreate? It's amazing in 2024 this line of discussion is happening.

We all know exactly at a individual level what to do and not. We can keep asking "Why not just use a condom?" and see how far that gets us, or actually understand psychology and use patterns and work with what people actually do (good or bad).

Same can be said about (illicit) drugs, why not just not do drugs? Simple!

seunosewa
0 replies
1h26m

It is a well known fact that people (except incels & asexuals) will have sex whether you like it or not. It's part of the human experience. Policy must deal with the real world.

mock-possum
1 replies
1h31m

When all it takes is a daily pill, or an injection, to reduce the risks of drunk-driving a motorcycle to practically nil - wouldn’t you want to do it? You don’t even need to wear a helmet, you can just do whatever on your motorcycle and not worry about it.

You never have to think to yourself “hoo boy I’m at two beers, and I don’t know, should I have the third? Will that be too many? Am I going to need to get on my motorcycle in an hour? Or will it be more like three hours? What will my blood-alcohol level be at that point? Is this legal? Is this safe?”

You can just have fun getting fucked up and driving your motorcycle.

Modern medicine has given us this incredible thing, and you’re really going to be like “Naw I don’t know about all that.”

Ntrails
0 replies
15m

Modern medicine has given us this incredible thing, and you’re really going to be like “Naw I don’t know about all that.”

I think that the only actual complaint I've ever heard against Prep is the costs being socialised and covered solely not by the user (ie insurance or public healthcare or whatever). It is (was?) not cheap!

bondarchuk
0 replies
7h3m

"why do you use prep when you can use condoms" > "in a state where they prefer to not use condoms" > "maybe they shouldn't do it then"

or... they can use prep.

alwa
0 replies
2h45m

You don’t, but people do. And even if they “shouldn’t,” the cost of contracting HIV—which very few people set out intending to do—adds up to an eyewatering sum over a lifetime, no matter who’s paying for it. Not to mention rendering someone, often young, dependent on heavy drugs to stay alive. Forever. Assuming the drugs remain effective.

What other risky lifestyle decisions do we advocate to punish that severely? Especially when the technology exists to ameliorate the risk?

Wouldn’t it be cool if simulated guns were as fun as real ones? Then your hypothetical person could get drunk and shoot guns all they want, and there’s no problem anymore! So what’s the virtue in leaving the real loaded gun lying around to test their willpower?

odyssey7
0 replies
4h23m

It’s not that complicated. A lot of people don’t like condoms, either wearing them or having a partner wear them. PrEP, to many, has rendered condoms unnecessary.

throwaway7ahgb
3 replies
6h5m

Why not just not have sex unless trying to procreate? It's amazing in 2024 this line of discussion is happening.

We all know exactly at a individual level what to do and not. We can keep asking "Why not just use a condom?" and see how far that gets us, or actually understand psychology and use patterns and work with what people actually do (good or bad).

Same can be said about (illicit) drugs, why not just not do drugs? Simple!

rswskg
1 replies
5h58m

I guess you aren't assuming to be around when the osteoporosis kicks in?

throwaway7ahgb
0 replies
5h30m

What are you implying, if I have sex without a condom I'll die sooner?

AlexandrB
0 replies
5h52m

Same can be said about (illicit) drugs, why not just not do drugs? Simple!

It is actually simple. Just not easy. Same with losing weight - consume fewer calories than you burn.

halfmatthalfcat
1 replies
18h3m

Isn't this like asking by do we have multiple methods of birth control? Pill, IUD, etc?

schlipity
0 replies
17h58m

This is a great way of looking at it, thank you for that.

JanetToolsmith
1 replies
16h39m

Why not just use condoms?

Why not just save money and not install those ECP brakes on your vinyl chloride freight train?

Why not just use one unshielded Raspberry Pi on that spacecraft instead of a 3-of-5 quorum from the output of 5 identical engineered-for-space systems?

Using/requiring condoms AND being on PrEP helps me live my best life with less fear-based inhibition and cognitive load.

Flumtioniro
0 replies
2h41m

The same reason why not everyone drives the safest car: cost and other negatives.

In case of a pill perhaps negative side effects.

I have no clue how often a person in high HIV risk has sex or behaves.

It should be fine to ask that question

whimsicalism
0 replies
3h12m

this might be news to HN, but condomless sex feels significantly better

moreover, condoms can have numerous issues like tearing or stealthing

snapplebobapple
0 replies
17h18m

Have you had sex wearing a condom vs not? Its gotten better in the last twenty years but it is still noticeably worse

oopsallmagic
0 replies
14h11m

Condoms aren't perfect, and PrEP is cheap and has basically zero side effects. Plus, rapists don't use condoms, no matter how nicely you ask.

Edit: lmao touched a nerve? I will never understand why folks here get so prudish when we talk about sex... "Just wear a condom!" is remarkably insensitive, as though 100% of HIV transmission is your own fault, and not, say, someone else who has bad intentions.

hn_throwaway_99
0 replies
4h40m

Who prefers to chew gum with the wrapper on?

heavyset_go
0 replies
16h51m

People lie and condoms break.

fullspectrumdev
0 replies
2h26m

They can break, so multiple protective elements is better.

brunoTbear
0 replies
14h29m

Some of us prefer to enjoy sex as a beautiful act of human connection and condoms detract from being in the moment of joy.

This is like saying to someone killed in a motorcycle accident why didn’t you use a car. It’s a reductive, unempathetic and frankly unproductive take. Please think before asking this again.

bravura
0 replies
4h3m

Besides the other nice reasons people offered, because "stealthing" (when someone removes a condom during sex without the other person's consent or lies about having put one) is remarkably common, and not as easily noticed as you might expect.

39896880
0 replies
14h7m

It’s because they’re no fun.

iknowstuff
1 replies
16h56m

The drug is cabotegravir and if you want to feel safer you can take the pill form of it first to test it out.

throwaway7ahgb
0 replies
6h11m

Any chance these will ever be self injectable (with Rx)?

OptionOfT
9 replies
18h58m

Couldn't you get an injection like Ozempic/Wegovy? Just have it in the fridge? Does it have to be administered in a physician's office?

kbos87
6 replies
18h45m

I think the GLP-1s are subcutaneous injections - tiny, tiny needles you can stick in a variety of locations - Apertude is intramuscular, it’s a much larger needle, I’m guessing there’s some level of skill involved.

httpsterio
5 replies
18h39m

I get an intra muscular injection of testosterone every two weeks and it's true that it's not as easy as a sub q injection would be, but it also definitely doesn't require a nurse.

there's a few good injection sites (upper arm, buttock, thigh or even pecs) and after I was shown once how it's done, I can do it myself. it's also essentially painless.

swat535
3 replies
15h36m

Off topic, feel free not to answer if it's too personal but I'm curious how is every two week injections working for you for Testosterone? Are you on TRT for Hypogonadism or is it something else? I haven't heard too many people be on that kind of protocol..

I'm Hypogonad and I'm on self administration of sub q injections twice a week and it's quite annoying. My urologist told me it's best to split it this way since more frequent injections avoids a "crash".

I would like to have less frequent injections if I could!

phil21
1 replies
7h22m

It depends on the exact type of Testosterone being used. Each type has a different half-life and absorption profile.

The most common - Testosterone Cypionate should be best used twice a week to avoid the "crashes" - if you care about keeping your levels relatively stable. Other forms of Testosterone have different half-lives and should be taken at differing schedules.

I never saw the point in subq shots for TRT. They are less effective, and are recommended solely for patient comfort and compliance. If you can manage a twice-weekly deep IM injection, I personally have had great results with that once I learned the locations. Nearly as painless as subq and better more consistent results.

Overall it doesn't matter a whole ton unless you are doing it for specific performance enhancing reasons. Being off "optimal schedule" a few days isn't going to make a meaningful difference for most.

throwaway7ahgb
0 replies
6h2m

I take subq TRT twice a week (cypionate). I may lose some efficiency in fat vs muscle but it is easy, painless and my levels are perfectly fine.

I don't see why I change and my doctor essentially said the same.

thesaintlives
0 replies
11h54m

Sub q is complete nonsense. Once every 10 days or so is fine. You simply feel like you need another shot and take it. No advantage and not necessary.

AuryGlenz
0 replies
16h31m

Unless, of course, you hit a nerve. Every damned time I try my thigh..

For what it’s worth you might want to try a weekly dose if you haven’t. Most do better on it.

mullen
1 replies
18h50m

A lot of these medicines that require patients to inject themselves come in a self administrating auto-injector. There are really simple to use, I mean literally anyone can inject themselves, then throw the one-use auto-injector out.

david38
1 replies
14h14m

Like birth control. The pill has a higher “failure” rate than many people think. It’s of course “user error”

moneywoes
0 replies
16h54m

how much does it cost?

ffrghdbsbd
0 replies
19h2m

Agreed, it’s another treatment in a continuum of adherence— pre relations testing, barrier precautions, daily pills, semiannual injections. All running up to the eventual asymptote of cure and eradication.

39896880
0 replies
14h8m

Do you mind sharing how you got insurance approval? I looked into it but it was needlessly complicated. I couldn’t even get a cash price quoted.

observer987
64 replies
18h0m

The paradox of living in this day and age is witnessing astonishing advances in science, while enduring the increasing levels of anti-intellectualism that pervades society like a cancer.

autoexec
32 replies
14h34m

In the US you also have situations where all that science means that effective treatments exist but they are entirely out of your reach because of insane healthcare costs.

I can't imagine having to watch a loved one slowly die knowing that you are surrounded by doctors who could save them if you only had the tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars they demand or if you'd been living in basically any other developed nation on Earth.

beaeglebeachedd
28 replies
14h8m

That's because we subsidize the world by investing in a massive portion of the science and tech for producing medicines. Then when those costs are recouped via sales to our consumers the whole world laughs at us while ironically many of them would be up shits creek without the advancements they get to piggy back off of.

Healthcare and medicine needs overhauling but it's maddening watching these downstream foreign benefactors damn the golden goose they'd be fucked without.

autoexec
15 replies
13h46m

I don't think it's necessarily true that we need to keep letting Americans needlessly die due to unaffordable healthcare in order to maintain our nation's lead in innovation. We should be able to continue to invest in medical science without continuing to fall behind other developed nations in actual health outcomes for patients. There are certainly many opportunities to drastically reduce the costs of healthcare without impacting the budgets for research.

Aerroon
12 replies
13h40m

Does the US actually fall behind other nations in health outcomes? The US has two big factors working against them: much more widespread obesity (and the level of morbid obesity) and the insurance bureaucracy. These two factors should negatively impact health statistics without the treatments being worse.

autoexec
11 replies
13h19m

Does the US actually fall behind other nations in health outcomes?

For the world's richest people you couldn't do better than to be a patient in America. For most Americans though, the US healthcare system is failing them. America does worse compared to other nations in some very basic measures like having a lower average life expectancy, a higher infant morality rate, more obesity and congestive heart failure and more hospital/pharmacy screw ups. A child or teenager in the US is less likely to live to adulthood compared to those in other developed countries. It's not any better when it comes to mental health either. The US is one of the worst nations when it comes to mental health outcomes and suicide and drug related deaths are higher in the US. Over thirty percent of the US population has been forced to put off getting the care they need due to the cost and preventative care is usually the first thing that people cut back on leading to bigger problems that could have been avoided entirely.

nxm
3 replies
12h48m

- 90% of Americans have health insurance - I would say it works for more than half (most) of Americans. Granted, not all health insurance is created equally.

- The obesity and congestive heart failure issues is a function of poor dietary choices most Americans make (choosing fast/process food over cooking/making healthy foods), and not a function of healthcare access

autoexec
2 replies
12h27m

90% of Americans have health insurance

Clearly having health insurance isn't enough to make healthcare affordable or prevent patient outcomes from being worse for Americans than patients in other nations.

The obesity and congestive heart failure issues is a function of poor dietary choices

I also suspect that obesity and congestive heart failure issues are heavily influenced by diet, although I think that "choices" might be misleading here and that being unable to afford basic and preventative healthcare likely does have a major impact in healthcare outcomes even when the problems come from obesity and heart failure.

It's certainly not as if people in other nations don't also enjoy ultra-processed foods or are any less fond of sugar, fat, and salt. They just often have better access to healthier foods, and more stringent regulations concerning what companies are and aren't allowed to put in foods, what they are allowed to advertise, and how they are sold.

There is a huge difference between the number of people in the US who have little to no access to healthy foods when compared to those in other developed nations. Sometimes it's physical access (food deserts) and sometimes it's a matter of costs, but I don't think there's anything inherent to Americans that forces them to make bad choices. I'm guessing that instead Americans tend to have less choice and fewer opportunities for healthy foods in the first place, while having unhealthy ultra-processed foods that would be banned in other countries readily available, easily affordable, and heavily advertised to them.

Aerroon
1 replies
10h18m

I call bs on the second part. It's not unhealthy food that makes you gain weight, it's how much food you have.

On top of that, the healthiest foods are among the cheapest foods you can buy. Milk, oatmeal, potatoes, rice, macaroni, chicken are all cheap compared to most foods you can get. This stuff is available almost everywhere.

but I don't think there's anything inherent to Americans that forces them to make bad choices.

It's partly cultural. But this isn't a uniquely American problem. It's just worse in the US. 72% of Americans are obese or overweight.

On top of that there was a recent study that found that BMR has decreased in the last ~30 years. Among men it was even up to 7%. That's a big enough difference to take someone from barely overweight to obese over a lifetime. But this is only a single study so far.

autoexec
0 replies
9h34m

I call bs on the second part. It's not unhealthy food that makes you gain weight, it's how much food you have.

I'd argue that unhealthy food can cause a person to eat more. See for example https://www.cell.com/cell-metabolism/fulltext/S1550-4131(19)...

On top of that, the healthiest foods are among the cheapest foods you can buy.

The usual argument here calls out "bulk beans and rice" instead of potatoes and chicken, but in both cases you aren't going to find that in a gas station or convince store which for many Americans (some 40+ million) is the only place they can get groceries. If they're getting chicken it's not going to be whole and uncooked. It'll be sold in a plastic bag leaching PFAS into the food and be coated in high fructose corn syrup (most packaged lunch meats have sugar or HFCS added). Those kinds of places tend to have very little fresh fruit and veg as well.

If you're looking at cost per calorie unhealthy food will often win out as less costly, not just in terms of money but also time and effort. Someone who works two jobs and spends hours sitting on or walking to/from the bus isn't always going to have the energy or time to roast a chicken. It's easy to see why they'd choose what's fastest, highly satisfying, requires less preparation and clean up, and is inexpensive.

Not that I'm suggesting that the 72% of Americans who are obese/overweight have those kinds of problems... just that you'll find more Americans who are in that position than you'll find somewhere like the UK.

I found the study on the decrease in BMR. That's pretty wild and if true, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a factor in the obesity problem.

ffgjgf1
3 replies
10h16m

If you adjust by factors like obesity, state and drug use US is quite close or more or less on the same level as Western European countries.

Even if you don’t do that there is a higher variance in life expectancy between different US states than inside the EU. e.g. California is about on par with the Netherlands, Germany, Britain while Mississippi and West Virginia are slightly below Bulgaria (of course mainly because of drugs..). IMHO that kinds of makes generalized comparisons semi-meaningless.

allendoerfer
2 replies
7h27m

"The US has a poverty problem. People are dying."

"Yeah, but just unimportant people from flyover states. We have to divide our analysis of the United States: Over here in California - you now were the people we care about live - life is just as good as in these other fancy European countries we don't look down upon."

ffgjgf1
1 replies
6h7m

Yeah, but just unimportant people from flyover states

That’s not what I said at all..

allendoerfer
0 replies
1h10m

Why does it matter which Americans are dying? Other countries are not uniform either, averages are still applicable.

hgomersall
1 replies
12h27m

The US has significant problems with over-treatment. I struggle to believe this isn't worse for the wealthy.

autoexec
0 replies
12h3m

It's not all roses. I'm sure that even the wealthy who get healthcare in the US do have to deal with things like over-treatment, a lack of regulations, excessive costs, etc. It doesn't seem to hurt their outcomes enough to offset the fact that they'll have far more options, greater access to the best avilable technology/treatments, and that they'll be treated like absolute royalty.

literallycancer
0 replies
2h17m

People who can't do basic math and skip prevention are responsible for their own shit outcome.

People in Portugal, where healthcare is "free", i.e. the government pays for it, frequently wait for years before being able to see a specialist due to long waitlists. The obvious outcome is that only poor people use the system and if you can you use private healthcare.

People in Czechia with single payer healthcare system with e.g. average wage of 2000 USD pay from 100 euros a month for health insurance (unemployed) to e.g. 500 euros (with 4000 USD salary) or more if you make more. You get the same shitty service (something like 20 years behid the US), you just pay a lot more if you make anything resembling a US salary.

There's no such thing as free healthcare. Can you make a single payer healthcare system that works better? Sure, it's just hard and even if everything is ideal you get maybe 50% discount. The main way to make healthcare cheaper is to drop coverage for diseases that are expensive to treat.

dyauspitr
1 replies
12h4m

I mean we have Medicaid, if you’re poor don’t you get healthcare for free?

autoexec
0 replies
11h24m

No. If you get something like cancer, at best you can expect Medicaid to be comparable to basic private health insurance, which can easily leave people with out of pocket costs they can't possibly afford.

Medicaid has a ton of other problems starting with eligibility, but even if you are eligible and you successfully jump through all the hoops to keep it (which are sometimes totally insane: https://youtube.com/watch?v=bVIsnOfNfCo), you still may not be able to get the services you need. Many doctors won't accept it and you can die just waiting for an appointment. Studies have shown there was effectively one psychiatrist for every 8,834 Medicaid beneficiaries and just one cardiologist for every 4,543 Medicaid beneficiaries. These doctors can't possibly see, let alone adequately treat and manage the care of, everyone who needs them.

The closest we get to free healthcare in the US is care in the emergency room which is only required to "stabilize" you. They'll try their best to keep you alive if you're actively dying, but then they push you out the door and send you a massive bill. They won't give you chemo or radiation to keep your cancer from spreading

DocTomoe
2 replies
11h24m

Well, if the US decided to not offer medicine on a realistic price point, other nations would do what the US did with Germany's Bayer, back when Anthrax was a concern: Cancel the patent on the only Anthrax medicine available due to "national security".

Don't blame the world for your Pharma executives needing a third private jet for their mistresses.

ffgjgf1
1 replies
10h4m

Cancel the patent on the only Anthrax medicine available due to "national security".

Wouldn’t that discourage these companies from spending money to develop new drugs on their own in the future?

DocTomoe
0 replies
3h10m

Didn't stop Bayer from doing R&D. They even ate the dead rat that was Monsanto.

2Gkashmiri
2 replies
12h53m

if US government is paying for research, advancement and what not, why should the end result not be free for citizens? let them spend a trillion dollars on a new drug developed by bayer or whoever, why should the company then charge anything more than say a generic paracetemol?

autoexec
1 replies
10h11m

All research done using any amount of money from the US government should be open and easily accessible to every American (with exceptions for national security), but that doesn't mean we should get the products resulting from it without cost.

If the government funded research that resulted in a more eco-friendly car I wouldn't expect to see one delivered to my driveway or that the car with the fancy new tech (which might be a lot more involved in terms of costs) should be priced the same as the old tech.

Healthcare should just be made accessible and affordable to everyone. It looks like the best way to do that is with publicly funded health systems.

2Gkashmiri
0 replies
9h57m

accessible is what i mean.

I wouldn't expect to see one delivered to my driveway or that the car with the fancy new tech (which might be a lot more involved in terms of costs) should be priced the same as the old tech.

we often pay a new user tax, or monopoly tax like the epipen thing. that should not be possible.

anakaine
1 replies
11h57m

This is such a rotten take. America, saviours of the world. It entirely discounts the contributions that other countries globally make. Countries in the European Union, Australasia, etc.

The US cost of healthcare is about 17% of GDP. In other first world nations it's about 11%. This isn't service delivery or value, it's underlying cost. Per capita healthcare costs over twice of what it does in the UK. Similar for Australia. Both those are socialised and have very active R&D communities.

The average life expectancy in the US is about 78. In other first world nations it's almost unilaterally closer to 84.

The US is ranked 69th globally in terms.of health system performance. The US is also ranked worse than the OECD38 average for death by preventable causes.

The biggest difference between those places I mention and the above is that the US views healthcare as a capitalist endeavour and tries to claim that competition will lower prices. Quite the opposite has occurred, and the system has become perverted. Intellectual property laws applied in this fashion ensure that you cannot have competition for health care since drugs are limited to a single supplier. You also don't get a choice in hospital care or doctors in most cases when you really look at how medical competition works.

In other places, the costs are socialised through taxation. Drugs are purchased through nationalised efforts where suppliers must either come to the table and negotiate prices properly or lose access to entire markets. It's funny how they can still be quite profitable even under this scenario, and yet the prices still be so significantly less by orders of magnitude than US pricing per patient/dose.

American exceptionalism ceases to be felt when you go spend time in other first world nations for any meaningful length of time. You realise it's reassurance of self rather than truth on basically all but defence technology spending.

ffgjgf1
0 replies
10h6m

The average life expectancy in the US is about 78. In other first world nations it's almost unilaterally closer to 84.

It doesn’t help that (at least when it comes to healthcare) US is a dozen of different countries in a trench coat.

Life expectancy in richer states like California or New York is very close to that in Germany, the Netherlands, Britain etc. (and if adjusted for the massive disparity in drug related deaths they’d probably be closer to Italy, France or even Switzerland) while the poorest states are about on par with Eastern European countries where it’s barely above 75 years or so. So any average figure is semi meaningless.

adwn
1 replies
12h31m

That's because we subsidize the world by investing in a massive portion of the science and tech for producing medicines.

How much of the money that flows into the US healthcare system really goes towards medical R&D, and how much is effectively wasted due to the inefficient bureaucracy and out-of-control litigation?

autoexec
0 replies
10h25m

How much of the money that flows into the US healthcare system really goes towards medical R&D, and how much is effectively wasted due to the inefficient bureaucracy and out-of-control litigation?

Literally tens of billions are wasted annually on advertising. The cost is pushed to the sick and hurting while doctors are bribed to overprescribe whatever drug people are being trained to "ask their doctor about". I'd worry about that way before I gave a thought to "out-of-control litigation". Especially considering how companies like Purdue Pharma and Philips Respironics can knowingly kill people with their drugs and medical devices, try to hide the fact they were doing it, yet face no meaningful consequences and not one person is put behind bars. If anything, I'd say America should be demanding more justice from the legal system not less.

walrushunter
0 replies
6h16m

It's a tragedy of the commons. US lawmakers need to ban pharmaceutical companies from selling their drugs in the US at substantially higher prices than the drugs are sold elsewhere.

outworlder
0 replies
13h19m

That's because we subsidize the world by investing in a massive portion of the science and tech for producing medicines.

Even if we assume that's the case - as in, normal margins would be insufficient to finance the research - that does not account for the medical treatments themselves.

the whole world laughs at us

Most of the world doesn't care.

ffgjgf1
2 replies
10h27m

In the US

I’m certain that the US is in no way unique in that. Countries with universal public healthcare care systems do cost-benefit analysis all the time and access to the newest effective treatment options outside of the richest/most developed countries (or even in them) is far from guaranteed. e.g good luck buying latest cancer drugs from the US on an East European salary after your local healthcare system bureaucrats have rejected them because they are too expensive and/or are taking a year or two to decide of they are worth buying.

or if you'd been living in basically any other developed nation on Earth.

That’s just beyond absurd, unless you think that only Switzerland and a handful of other rich countries are “developed”. Yes getting some minimum/acceptable level of care when you’re not rich might generally be easier. Getting access to latest or even experimental drugs (most of which are developed in the US)? Not so much..

kevincox
1 replies
7h36m

This is partially true but for many things the price is different. In the US drugs are priced assuming that there are some number of rich people who can afford them. This often results in higher margin pricing which is more profitable even if the volume is lower and puts them out of reach of many. In countries with public health care, setting the price that high will typically result in near-zero sales, so the price gets set closet to the cost-benefit point to make profit in lower margins but higher volumes.

It doesn't always work like this. Some drugs are just too expensive to manufacture and the minimum profitable price is too high for the benefit in public health care. But often the bargaining and purchasing power of a public health care system can achieve lower prices for drugs and other tools.

ffgjgf1
0 replies
6h3m

In countries with public health care, setting the price that high will typically result in near-zero sales,

I’m not sure that’s strictly true at least when it comes to the most expensive/newly developed drugs:

https://www.investigate-europe.eu/posts/deadly-prices-medici...

Doesn’t seem that massively different from the relationship between insurance companies and drug companies in the US.

In countries with public health care, setting the price that high will typically result in near-zero sales

Interestingly enough it seems like the poorer Central/East European countries end up paying more than the richer ones.

EnigmaFlare
19 replies
16h40m

I think all the really obvious and influential products of science and technology happened in the 20th century and now we're so comfortable because of those that we take it for granted. Then people find reasons to hate it because they forget how bad things were without it (previous generations). Same goes for political stability.

Another aspect is that a lot of intellectualism is really activism with "intellectuals" trying to impede other people's lives for the sake of some arrogant moral purpose.

mschuster91
6 replies
10h47m

In Germany, unlike every other European country (maybe except the Polish, not sure if they're doing the same with Auschwitz?), we have every generation of school children visit a Nazi Konzentrationslager once - precisely to avoid forgetting how bad it was, by showing the actual, undeniable evidence. And on top of that the Nazi dictatorship is usually an entire year's worth of history lessons in schools.

Despite the far-right being on the rise as well as everywhere in Europe, they still have a harder time here, which I think is mostly due to these two education policies.

bartekpacia
2 replies
9h14m

Yes, in Poland we do the same (mandatory visit to Auschwitz)

garaetjjte
0 replies
4h28m

No, it isn't. I think it's rather weird tourist attraction to pick for a trip.

codesnik
0 replies
7h40m

I wonder, how it is usually spinned? I'm asking as Russian and I see direct evidence of how people who grew up in the constant narrative "fascism is awful, that war was important, our grandparents are heroes" also, it seems, consumed it in easy/stupid form of "fascism is something that those weird germans do, they attacked us, and we won, so we can't be fascists ever".

Maken
1 replies
10h2m

I do not think it's working. The AfD was the second most voted party for the European parliament, despite their candidate literally defending the SS a few weeks prior.

mschuster91
0 replies
7h39m

European elections are usually used to deliver a "Denkzettel" to the currently governing party, it's the same across Europe as these elections are (wrongly) seen as consequenceless.

Federally, the AfD is around 15-18% [1], which is still way too high in my opinion, but they're far from any chance to gain relevant influence on politics. Statewide is a different beast, sadly in Eastern Germany (the equivalent of the "flyover states" in the US) they're almost at the 33% required to block major legislation [2]. I'm honestly not sure how to combat that any more, outside of a (well deserved, given e.g Höcke directly using banned NS slogans) ban on the party.

[1] https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

[2] https://dawum.de/Sachsen/

literallycancer
0 replies
2h44m

I'm pretty sure there are places in Europe where the AfD equivalent doesn't get 15%.

Trip to a holocaust museum is nice and all, but it probably fails at making people understand the problem. They'll kind of nod that yeah, Nazis were bad but then happily go and blame others for their bad decisions and vote for populists with easy solutions.

Somehow half of Germany thinks Russia is OK, because they "saved Europe", hammer and sickle symbols are still not treated the same as swastikas and, of course, the main outcome of the kind of education you mention is that Germany is basically freeloading wrt defense and very unwilling to do the only reasonable thing, i.e. help prevent another genocide as it unfolds in Europe.

Hopefully something has changed in the last 2 years, but the preceding decade, spending over 100 million euros daily on Russian natural gas is hard to undo. And that's with pre-war historical minimum prices. Since you all didn't get the memo that you need to stop buying Russian stuff until NS2 got blown up, the flow of money for natural gas from Germany to Russia in 2022 and 2023 is likely several times the pre-war annual number.

And then you have people saying shit like "we have spent enough on Ukraine" or "Ukrainian refugees are coming because of our social safety net", not even from AfD politicians (I think some CDU idiot, lol). Yeah sure, but you gave 100x the money to Russia, who of course spent it on weapons because they don't give two fucks about their own people.

Being sorry about things from the last century, while failing completely to judge the situation in the present doesn't really help. Not to mention Poland still didn't get the war reparations for WW2 last I checked. They probably don't want to shake the boat too much and just hope Germany will at least stop being useless.

autoexec
4 replies
13h58m

now we're so comfortable because of those that we take it for granted. Then people find reasons to hate it because they forget how bad things were without it (previous generations). Same goes for political stability.

I'm not sure that most people are really all that comfortable. They're a lot more distracted though certainly.

I think there are a lot of different reasons people today have a problem with science and technology. Some are scared of it. Some just don't trust it, which can be entirely fair depending on the degree/situation. Some see that the regulations, oversight, and accountability we expect and depend on to keep us safe aren't working like they used to or like we thought they would.

Mostly I think people see not only what we've gained, but also what we've lost and could/should have again. Reliable and repairable products that weren't designed to exploit and work against the interests of the person who paid for them for just one example. We've had many trade offs, where they've improved things in some areas while making them worse in others. It hasn't always worked out in our favor. It's also frustrating when you see that amazing things are now possible, but we can't have them because of politics, or greed, or fear of change.

Personally, I hope people never stop wanting and expecting better from science and technology. Especially in those cases where what previous generations had was better than what we're expected to accept today or where we've created problems previous generations never had to put up with.

armada651
1 replies
11h21m

I think there are a lot of different reasons people today have a problem with science and technology. Some are scared of it. Some just don't trust it, which can be entirely fair depending on the degree/situation. Some see that the regulations, oversight, and accountability we expect and depend on to keep us safe aren't working like they used to or like we thought they would.

We often forget that many people have been genuinely negatively affected by technology or science or know someone who has. Let's not forget that many technological and medical advances have come at a real human cost. People have been poisoned by harmful chemicals either during their occupation or because an entire community has been exposed. Entire communities have been devastated by the opioid epidemic which the medical community is directly responsible for. Not to mention the countless people who have lost their jobs or will lose them soon to automation.

There are people with genuine concerns about the way science and technology are heading and pretending anyone skeptical of modern science is simply uneducated or stupid is extremely counter-productive.

autoexec
0 replies
10h59m

I think things like the opioid crisis where doctors were getting outright bribes from pharmaceutical companies who knew they were killing people has done a massive amount of harm to the trust people had in medical science. It's been a problem for a long time, even going back to the tobacco industry hiring researchers to lie about the dangers of smoking. Those researchers didn't lose their jobs and become unhireable in their fields. They just went on to work for the oil companies to lie about how climate change isn't real and are now working for companies currently trying to convince the FDA about the safety of food additives.

Between corporations being able to buy whatever research they think will get them a favorable headline, peer reviewed journals accepting any paper if you pay them to publish it (this one being a personal favorite https://www.sciencealert.com/a-neuroscientist-just-tricked-4...), the reproducibility crisis more generally, the total lack of any meaningful consequences when companies are caught outright knowingly poisoning people or selling dangerous drugs, it's really getting harder to explain to people at the fringes like antivaxxers why they should have more faith in the data we have and on the systems put in place to protect them.

If the people aren't held accountable for causing harm and scientists don't do a much better job self-policing I think the situation is only going to get much worse. Even if things do change it will likely take generations to undo the damage already done.

ithkuil
0 replies
11h19m

People don't _feel_ comfortable but they objectively are much more comfortable that 120 years ago or more. Unfortunately being objectively more comfortable doesn't make you feel more comfortable and ultimately it matters how you feel and want to fix whatever is causing them to feel like shit.

UniverseHacker
0 replies
1h44m

I'm not sure that most people are really all that comfortable. They're a lot more distracted though certainly.

I think people in wealthy countries like the USA are very physically comfortable, but also quite unhappy- possibly much more unhappy day to day than they were historically when there was a lot more disease and discomfort- and a lot of that is directly a result of excess comfort combined with a life without any real difficulty, challenge, or sense of meaningful purpose. We feel like we want comfort, but it's mostly harmful to us. Humans just aren't built to be "house pets." People need a sense of purpose, of overcoming difficult challenge, and an ability to directly see positive results from their efforts. The challenges need to be both mental, and physical.

What we have now is lots of empty entertainment, stupor inducing comfort, and lots of sedentary careers that feel pointless, where nobody even notices the difference if you work hard or not. More and more people are burned out at work, and socially isolated.

I don't think the answer is to go "backwards" and lose all of our progress in treating disease, making labor easier, etc. but in a cultural and personal change where we find some new meaning and challenges, to grow even more. Personally, I've found this through being a scientist where I can work on hard problems, as well as doing physically demanding and uncomfortable hobbies like weight training, fasting, and cold water swimming.

I've noticed that the more intentional physical discomfort I experience, e.g. from cold, the more content I feel, and the less I crave comfort, or other addictive things like social media and overeating.

Angostura
3 replies
11h45m

Another aspect is that a lot of intellectualism is really activism with "intellectuals" trying to impede other people's lives for the sake of some arrogant moral purpose.

OK, I’ll bite -examples?

nathan_compton
0 replies
2h10m

This is such a cop out, especially given this is a fairly anonymous space AND pretty friendly to "cancelled" ideas.

tim333
0 replies
8h59m

A historical example might be communism which impeded a lot of people's lives and was pushed by intellectuals going back to Marx himself.

More recently some people are unenthusiastic about promoting trans stuff and affirmative action.

nathan_compton
0 replies
2h11m

Do you really think there is no intellectual work to be done on moral subjects? That morality is entirely in the realm of folk intuition? If you thought very hard about some moral question and came to another conclusion than most of society, what would you do about it?

Would you have called intellectual abolitionists people trying to impede other people's lives for some arrogant moral purpose?

Like, I get it, nobody likes a woke-scold, but it is still weird to complain about the idea that an intellectual who comes to a moral understanding might want to act on that new understanding/change the world/convince others.

agumonkey
0 replies
3h50m

when the ratio between education and society sophistication flips you get problems. It's a strange group dynamics still.

Aerroon
0 replies
13h43m

I think what societies need is a feeling of hope and improvement. As long as people feel that things are getting better they are happy.

teh_infallible
4 replies
17h52m

I suppose that’s another way of saying we’re seeing controversial advances in science.

oopsallmagic
1 replies
14h7m

You don't need to take HIV medication, but you don't need to prevent the rest of us from enjoying the benefits of modernity, too.

beaeglebeachedd
0 replies
14h2m

I think you'll find certain parties on both sides secretly want things to be framed as controversial to drum up the useful idiots to their cause or open their checkbook.

speed_spread
0 replies
16h29m

Anything new can be controversial if you're allergic to change.

javawizard
0 replies
17h47m

Not sure what you're saying, can you elaborate?

cm2187
2 replies
11h53m

Some of the anti-vax movement during covid (I presume that's what you have in mind) is anti-intellectualism but some of it is not.

You can hold both opinions that an mRNA vaccine is an incredible new technology that has enormous potential, while a new technology that had never been tested on humans shouldn't be forced on people for whom the benefit was marginal at best (kids, healthy population under 50, people who already had covid).

And you can hold both opinions that health authorities clearly misbehaved or acted in a moronic way (lying about masks, origin of the virus, forcing vaccines on people who had already been infected, telling you you can't go outside, except if it's to protest for BLM, etc) while acknowledging that coming up with a vaccine against a new virus in only weeks is a technological wonder.

It's absurd to be systematically anti-intellectual, but also some healthy skepticism is well warranted.

account42
0 replies
9h23m

Right, a lot of the problem with anti-intellectualism is actually the people who define their viewpoint as The Science and try to shut down those who disagree as being "against the science".

Propelloni
0 replies
7h28m

It's like poker. You can have this lucky draw on the river, but most often you don't. You cannot built your strategy on lucky draws and those people weren't, even when not everything worked out. You and I are still alive, so I think they did a good job.

yieldcrv
0 replies
17h35m

its only been a small gap in time where anti-intellectualism was segregated from society. you could always just be in your tiny circles of elite higher education.

only thing thats changed this time is anti-intellectualism is given a microphone.

tonymet
0 replies
13h0m

what does this have to do with the story?

tim333
0 replies
8h12m

I'm not so sure about rising levels of anti-intellectualism overall if you look globally. I looked at some stats over my lifetime and globally from Our World in Data 67m people had post secondary education in 1965 vs about 1.07bn now so up 16x. (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-level-ed...)

Also in the 1970s the Cambodians were searching out their intellectuals and executing them and the Chinese did a slightly less extreme version in the cultural revolution whereas now you get none of that and China is becoming a science superpower.

Admittedly some in the US seem to be pushing antivax and climate denial but it's not like the past events. Also it seems a bit local. I'm a Brit for example and see almost no climate denial here. A bit of antivax maybe.

nevi-me
38 replies
22h33m

How do tests for drugs like this get conducted?

"Here's a shot, go have sex with people with HIV"? I hope the young women conducting the trials were compensated sufficiently for the risk taken, especially those who contracted HIV during the period.

mmh0000
9 replies
22h32m

You give the shot to a group and you give no shot to another group. Then you compare rates of HIV contractions between the two groups.

tupshin
8 replies
22h13m

The summary text explicitly called out why that would be unethical in this case.

asveikau
7 replies
21h46m

They don't ask people to live their lives any differently than they would, nor do they expose anyone to HIV on purpose; they just track them assuming that x% of people get HIV in any given year. So they compare what X is for people who got the shot, vs those who did not.

As I skim TFA, they say nobody who got the shot ended up getting HIV, which would be statistical anomaly for the population they tested.

smeej
6 replies
21h41m

It's not "no shot," though. It's other existing, widely available forms of pre-exposure prophylaxis.

They're not comparing the new treatment to nothing. They're comparing it to existing treatments.

asveikau
5 replies
21h36m

Oh, ok, I skimmed past this:

The shot was also superior to once-daily Truvada, another Gilead drug that is used for HIV prevention.

That's good news. As I understand it the existing treatments were already very good. And these injections are only once per year.

duskwuff
4 replies
21h28m

Twice a year, but yes. That's a huge benefit -- not only is it easier for patients to stay on the treatment, but it's likely to be a lot cheaper as well.

smeej
2 replies
16h14m

I wonder how much variation there might be in terms of margin of error. Like, how close do they have to get to keeping people on a rigid 6-month schedule? Would 7 be fine? For what percentage of people? I'm assuming they have reason to believe once a year isn't enough, so that's an upper bound, but what's the lower one?

duskwuff
0 replies
13h48m

I wonder how much variation there might be in terms of margin of error.

Probably quite a bit. The trial used the same dose of lenacapavir as what's used for maintenance in HIV patients; it's quite possible that less is needed to prevent infection in a healthy patient. Unfortunately, there's really no safe/ethical way for them to test lower doses.

adgjlsfhk1
0 replies
14h19m

the short answer is no one knows (yet). if/once it gets approval, there likely would be a followup study on how much you can stretch the timing (possibly with dosage variation)

oopsallmagic
0 replies
14h2m

It'll only be cheap once the patent expires. Until then, take those pills daily, y'all!

withinrafael
7 replies
22h6m

I didn't think the question was unreasonable as some suggest and couldn't find an answer in any of the replies to you.

Poking around, it's my understanding that double blind procedure only covers treatment allocation--that is, who gets the placebo or not--and does not exclude general experiment communication to patients. I imagine trial communication is something generic along the lines of "We're running a novel drug trial, help us gather more data for $50/shot."

bee_rider
5 replies
21h42m

I don’t think the question is inherently unreasonable, but they asked it in a really flip and disrespectful way, and weirdly went with a very negative assumption. There’s also a whole field of medical research ethics and, I guess, it is hard to believe that somebody could be not aware of that (then again, I guess everyone has to learn it at some point).

nevi-me
4 replies
21h25m

Yeah, I asked it in a negative way, probably because I hold the view that Africa is the dumping ground for unethical behaviour/products. Just 2 months ago we were outraged at Nestle putting sugar in baby foods [0] in Africa. We have 2 kids, the eldest of which is addicted to sugar.

As a South African, I appreciate that we're also the most unequal country in the world (by Gini coef). So, some of what was going on in my mind as I read the Bloomberg piece, was:

* did they choose people at random, because the high HIV rate is obviously skewed towards vulnerable groups (think a young woman who's financially dependent on her boyfriend, who has multiple partners)

* just because the HIV rate is prevalent, doesn't mean that young sexually active people would have multiple partners, so how do they account for situations where we were sexually active, but with 1 or safe partners

* condoms are freely available in clinics and often public toilets, and we've generally gone past the fear of asking for them. So how does safe sex affect their study

[0] https://www.wits.ac.za/news/latest-news/opinion/2024/2024-04....

mlyle
3 replies
20h36m

So, some of what was going on in my mind as I read the Bloomberg piece, was: did they choose people at random

They chose around 5000 people; they randomized them to either try the new shot, or one of two existing PREP drugs.

Of the 2000 people in the lenacapavir group, 0 got HIV, while dozens got HIV in the existing PREP groups.

When you have that many people and shuffle them, the groups end up pretty similar. You'd have to be really unlucky to get all the promiscuous people in the PREP groups.

PREP is already pretty effective; to have such a crushing result over PREP is a breakthrough.

genewitch
2 replies
17h22m

i'm gunna bury this here, but pfizer said their tests in africa were 100% effective for the sars-ncov-2 vaccines.

It is in their interest to ... fudge the truth a little.

Now pfizer did this a different time by removing 2/3rds of the treatment group, and only counting "infections" if they occurred after all doses/boosters were administered. If you compare actual results to what pfizer published and claimed, you see that it was 7 infections in the placebo group and over 100 in the test group. they claimed <7 in the treatment group (i don't think it was 0, but it was like 2), and 7 in the placebo, saying "see, reduced infections by 80%!" Well, yeah, if you don't count infections and remove 2/3rds of the people who would have counted as infections possibly.

which means, and you don't even have to squint very hard, that the vaccine was actually increasing the chances of infection.

A lot of us are completely burned out and therefore wary on multinationals, regardless of their vertical. Pharma has a lot to answer for. Nestle has a lot to answer for. Chevron (et al) have a lot to answer for.

kgc
1 replies
16h50m

Interesting. Could you drop a link to the document you’re talking about?

mlyle
0 replies
15h34m

He's talking about the Pfizer multi-national trial (which included a lot of enrollees in South Africa), and greatly distorting it.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577#t2

Yes, the primary endpoint shown in here was comparing 7 days after dose 2 of the vaccine to 7 days after dose 2 of the placebo group. (table 2):

https://www.nejm.org/cms/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577/asset/619bcb1...

However, figure 3 breaks down the efficacy vs. time, and it shows no effect like he describes:

https://www.nejm.org/cms/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577/asset/fe40d07...

Instead, the vaccine and control groups were about the same until roughly day 10-12 after the first dose, and then dramatically diverged (though not as decisively as after dose 2).

x0x0
0 replies
21h34m

It was literally answered directly in the article

The trial involved about 5,300 women and female adolescents ages 16 to 25 in South Africa and Uganda, some of whom who received Gilead lenacapavir, and others who received older once-daily drugs from Gilead, including Truvada or Descovy.

Not to mention a superficial understanding of how drug trials are conducted would exclude that method.

asveikau
7 replies
21h48m

As I understand it would go like this:

Normally, some percentage of the population will get HIV in any given year. So what you do is give a bunch of people the shot and track them long term. You count how many got HIV after N years, compared to what would be expected in a normal population.

Nobody is exposed to HIV as part of the study, that exposure would come through the participants living their ordinary lives.

pitaj
6 replies
15h2m

Close, but it's actually run with two large groups: one that gets the real shot, and one that gets a fake shot. You then compare the two groups, rather than comparing with the population.

spencerchubb
4 replies
14h19m

That would be extremely unethical, exposing the control group to needless risk. There is already another drug that helps prevent hiv, it's called truvada. They tested this new one against truvada, and basically learned it's a lot more effective.

Dylan16807
3 replies
11h33m

Ridiculous. As long as most people are taking no preventatives, it is not "extremely unethical" to have the control group also take no preventatives.

kjhcvkek77
2 replies
7h23m

Who would sign up for your study? The diligent person already on truvada - would they risk getting placebo? No. Or the person too careless to take truvada? Would they go to the trouble of participating in a study for a 50% chance of protection? No.

Dylan16807
1 replies
5h39m

That's an entirely different question from ethics.

But paying people to be studied tends to be effective.

kjhcvkek77
0 replies
4h24m

I don't think so. Managing the relationships with the public and study participants is an important part of the ethics.

stevekemp
0 replies
13h35m

In general, yes.

In this case the study cites that as being unethical due to the high prevalence of HIV in the target population. So the actual trial gave some people the shot, and some other people the known-working daily pills as a control.

Svoka
5 replies
22h29m

How does your mind even go there? Did you consider they just give shots and see how many of treated got infected in treatment vs control group?

nevi-me
4 replies
22h8m

People are sexually active at different rates over different times, I also assume that a 100 people having sex with each other, where none of them have HIV, would not contract it.

It's like giving police officers new buller-proof vests, and then none of them getting in the firing line. You can't say that your vests are more efficient than other vests if they technically didn't get tested.

So, my thinking was how they ensure that all test groups are sexually exposed to other people with HIV, for the trial to be effective.

opprobium
0 replies
22h4m

South Africa (study was in SA and Uganda) has an adult HIV prevalence of 18.3% and 210k new infections per year. It is easy to select a high risk group in which you would expect to see new HIV infections during the course of the study without intervention.

loeg
0 replies
21h57m

So, my thinking was how they ensure that all test groups are sexually exposed to other people with HIV, for the trial to be effective.

They don't. Some people will organically have sex with people with HIV, and some will not. Your study just needs to recruit enough participants that it is likely some will. Your study absolutely does not tell people to deliberately have sex with HIV+ partners.

langcss
0 replies
19h41m

I think it is like coin flips, do enough of them and the total heads or tails gets very predictable even though individual flips are not.

imzadi
0 replies
21h59m

They don't need to ensure that all test groups are exposed to people with HIV. There is already a known risk factor for the specific population. All they need to do is see if the people who received the medication had more/fewer/similar infection rates as those who didn't.

Think about it like studies on which cars perform better in crashes. They don't need to have people drive more wrecklessly to determine if the car is safer. They just need to look at the expected risk compared to the outcomes of the people who drive that car. They are already doing the risky thing.

3523582908
3 replies
22h3m

A while ago I watched this highly disturbing documentary produced by Vice about the prevalence of rape in the DRC as a weapon of war and terror against women. [1]. I have to imagine that this is involved, somehow.

1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IffpoUQpDc&pp=ygUUdGhlIHZpY...

JumpCrisscross
1 replies
20h59m

the prevalence of rape in the DRC

This was in South Africa. You might as conclude on life in America based on observations in Caracas.

folli
0 replies
21h26m

How so?

jghn
0 replies
22h32m

They're comparing against typical rates of infection over time.

dekhn
0 replies
22h22m

Here's the study page. https://www.purposestudies.com/purpose1/ and extensive details on clinicaltrials.gov https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04994509 It's double-blind so the patients do not know if they received the drug or an alternative. The investigators inform the patients of the risk and tell them to do what they would usually do. The participants must meet certain criteria including already being sexually active. The investigators would not tell the participants to be more sexually active, or active with more risky people than they normally would. The prevalence of HIV infection in the area is already fairly high so people are actively at risk already. I believe there was only very limited compensation.

MrLeap
25 replies
21h42m

A childhood friend of mine died of AIDs related complications a few years ago. I hope this saves a lot of people.

dekhn
24 replies
21h8m

HIV/AIDS dominated my high school years; it was just starting to become known; the first reported US case was in 1981, and in 1983, the disease (AIDS) was traced to the virus (HIV). My biology class had a poster of all the things AIDS could present as (kaposi's sarcoma, etc). At the time HIV was effectively a death sentence and it really affected places like SF heavily.

One of my main motivations in college and grad school was to work in drug discovery, specifically for HIV. At the time (~1995-2000) we were just starting to see positive results from protease inhibitors and reverse transcriptase inhibtors came somewhat later leading to the current "managment of HIV through HART" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Management_of_HIV/AIDS

All of this came slowly - decades between significant new technologies/improvements in treatment. many sources of infection such as blood transfusions are now much less risky (people in the 70s and 80s were getting hep C and HIV from blood taken from HIV-positive donors). And the disease presents very differently in the US vs. other areas such as Sub-Saharan africa. But with extensive effort, prevention has gotten better and treatments have gotten much better. If there are truly usable preventatives for at-risk populations, and those medications are affordable, it will be a huge boon to the recipients.

Some interesting things to note:

- there was a lot of controversy about the source of infection and a lot of people used this to criticize gay people and injected drug users.

- one of the world's most famous virologists, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Duesberg actively denied that HIV caused AIDS and instead thought it was transmitted by drug use. Note "Duesberg entered a long dispute with John Maddox, then-editor of the scientific journal Nature, demanding the right to rebut articles that HIV caused AIDS." which I think presages the current arguments about what scientists can say regarding the origins of COVID. The impact of his statements in South Africa was significant. From what I can tell he was completely off base and never made any truly convincing arguments for his position.

- Fauci, of COVID fame, played a big role in getting NIH and the various AIDS community organzations working together and making large improvements to HIV/AIDS treatment. Before that, Fauci was heavily criticized by various LBGTQ orgs (see https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/opinion/anthony-fauci-hiv...) "Larry Kramer, one of the group’s founders, wrote an open letter to Dr. Fauci in The Village Voice calling him a murderer and comparing him to the Holocaust organizer Adolf Eichmann." Again, all this presages the later treatment of Fauci by various political groups during COVID. I often think back to Fauci during HIV/AIDS while reflecting on the current situation around COVID and I think we got lucky to find somebody like him, even if he said a few dumb things, and we'll be lucky if any public servants are willing to take up his role in the future.

- modern gene therapy often uses variants on HIV as the vector. That's right: it's so good at getting into cells and modifying the genome, that we use it as the preferred method. it took quite some time before the vectors were made safe enough (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5152689/)

YeGoblynQueenne
12 replies
19h50m

> one of the world's most famous virologists, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Duesberg actively denied that HIV caused AIDS and instead thought it was transmitted by drug use.

I'm curious about his claim that retroviruses (retrovirii?) must be harmless to survive and multiply. What is the mainstream consensus on this?

To be clear: I know next to nothing about viruses (virii? I mean I don't even know how to call them) and I have no idea whether it really supports Peter Duesberg's claims about AIDS in general. I'm just wondering whether he's pointed out an interesting peculiarity of HIV that is not further investigated by others for fear of being accused of denialism.

Scientists can get very like that.

> (...) the current arguments about what scientists can say regarding the origins of COVID.

It reminded me most about John Ioannidi's polemic against the way COVID was dealt with, rather than its origin. Ioannidis is a leading epidemiologist so he had to be taken seriously, although of course his opinion was rejected by most everyone else.

opprobium
6 replies
19h20m

You can read a lot about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duesberg_hypothesis

The mainstream consensus is the he was wildly wrong about HIV specifically, that HIV causes AIDS, and that his influence in South Africa to not deploy anti-viral medications killed hundreds of thousands of people before the policy was reversed.

Part of his hypothesis was that viruses in general, not just retroviruses, were not connected to cancers, the consensus view is that this is completely wrong. We have a very large body of evidence on many virus caused cancers now.

Even at the time he was arguing this, it was clear that the retrovirus HTLV was disease causing in humans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primate_T-lymphotropic_virus

So, the two known human retroviruses both cause disease and retroviruses cause diseases in animals. Duesberg held on to and promoted this concept long after it should have been clear to him that there was zero empirical support for his idea.

WhitneyLand
2 replies
18h52m

Influenced the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people?

Yet apparently to this day he draws over 200k/yr in salary from Berkeley. I believe they are not entirely funded by tuition/endowments which means California tax payers support him at least in part.

opprobium
0 replies
18h33m

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Duesberg#Consequences_of...

He was investigated but it was dropped as being protected by his academic freedom: https://www.science.org/content/article/berkeley-drops-probe...

He also, that I know of, still supports this position. To this day, you will find people getting into this particular conspiracy and rejecting treatment. It doesn't go well for them.

I do think that freedom of speech is important, and that many attempts to squash "misinformation" are misguided, but some speech has consequences. Personally I find Duesberg utterly reprehensible and morally culpable.

dekhn
0 replies
18h37m

He has tenure and hasn't done anything that would force the dean to fire him. He hasn't published in ~7 years.

IIUC he's been isolated- doesn't get any real funding from NIH, or from the university (beyond the standard salary), and doesn't have an active lab.

It would likely cost the university more in legal fees to get rid of him than keep him until he goes away.

YeGoblynQueenne
1 replies
17h5m

Cheers, I read the wikipedia article. It mentions Duesberg's claims without going into details about why it is wrong, or right.

opprobium
0 replies
12h22m

Perhaps I found the article clearer because of familiarity with the subject.

On the "retroviruses must be harmless" virology: He's a denier of viral involvement in cancers in general, not just that HIV must be harmless. He is way outside mainstream consensus on all kinds of things.

For instance, he argues that Kaposi sarcoma, a very common AIDS related cancer was caused by drug use and not opportunistic infection. It is now very well established that all KS, which also affects (typically older) HIV- people, is caused by HHV-8 infection.

He claims that Hep-B/C can't cause liver cancer.

He claims that HPV doesn't cause cervical cancer (https://www.academia.edu/31617237/What_if_HPV_does_NOT_cause...)

The core thing he does on all of these topics is just to ignore or deny anything that doesn't agree with him, eg: Hemophiliacs treated with tainted blood get AIDS, HIV viral load directly corresponds to disease progression which is clearly halted by dropping HIV load with treatment, the HPV vaccine demonstrably prevents cervical cancer, etc. He is far off in quack territory.

dekhn
0 replies
19h13m

To me the most convincing bit that weakens his "hypothesis" is that people who received blood transfusions from HIV-contaminated blood. Many of those people showed none of the risk factors.

See https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/world/europe/britain-cont... for some recent discussion of the scope and scale of HIV contamination.

rcxdude
1 replies
19h30m

I don't see any particular reason why retroviruses would be different in that regard: they need the cell they infect to live long enough to produce enough viruses, and it is advantageous to them that some cells they infect lay dormant and reactivate later (a trick not limited to retroviruses), but there's not particular reason why they should not overall act much like any other virus: keeping their host cell alive only long enough to produce enough new viruses to continue to propagate. It's an argument which you could extent to any pathogen: why would any disease kill its host?

outworlder
0 replies
13h11m

It's an argument which you could extent to any pathogen: why would any disease kill its host?

Moreover, why would a disease even 'care' about the host? As long as it can jump hosts quickly, it can afford to kill many of them. If achieving fast transmission is tough on the host, so be it. Other diseases may select for the opposite approach, of course.

dekhn
1 replies
19h29m

Speculating about the shape of the potential energy surface of viral evolution is non-trivial.

I don't know enough (my retrovirus knowledge is out of date), but if you look at authoritative knowledge (IE, textbooks), you will see many non-harmless retroviruses:

- oncoretroviruses: as a side effect of how they integrate, they often cause cancer in patients. There is lots of time between infection and death for the virus to be transmitted.

- lentiviruses (this is also known as a "slow virus"). There is often lots of time between infection and death for the virus to be transmitted.

It's possible that scientists are avoiding directly attempting to argue with Deusberg's observations, but in general, the consensus seems to be that he brought nothing useful to the debate except irrational claims that were inconsistent with the evidence. We don't live in an ultrarational world where every fringe theory can be investigated.

As for Ioannidis... not sure what to say. I think his big mistake was going to the white house and trying to make Trump an ally and not shut down everything because he predicted the virus wouldn't spread and wouldn't be fatal at the rates that were later observed. Diseases like COVID are multidimensional problems with partial information and a high level of politics, corp, and media involvement. I think fauci and others have finally admitted that they may have made some mistakes in the specific details of the shutdowns, in particular, it took people a while to realize that the impact on children (who by and large are not at risk from COVID) was enormous.

If your goal is to affect public health policy, you have to be a truly 4D thinker, and even that's not enough dimensions.

YeGoblynQueenne
0 replies
17h6m

Thanks.

You reminded me hat Ioannidis made very specific predictions that turned out to be false (about the number of deaths we could expect). And that, while measures were adopted that he claimed were useless. I agree Fauci saved lives - and last time I saw him in the news he was being attacked by Republican trolls, I don't have any other word for those people.

IlliOnato
0 replies
5h59m

In reality HIV does have to deal with pressures described by Duesberg, but the virus found a workaround: extremely long "incubation period".

As you probably know, it can stay dormant for 10 years or more, but then gets into active stage, causes AIDS, and relatively quickly kills the host.

mrmetanoia
7 replies
20h36m

One of my in-laws is a full on Fox news nut, but has a rare condition that he received treatments for as part of an NIH study that did him a world of good and Fauci was one of the doctors that worked on it, as a result the bits of nuttery he didn't buy into were attempts to discredit Fauci or anti-vax stuff. Oddly it didn't pull into question any other beliefs he picked up from that station.

greentxt
6 replies
19h27m

I believe that's referred to as Gell-Mann Amnesia. Common for most educated consumers of tv and print journalism. Indeed, even Fauci has made mistakes he has later had to correct/retract, like his early herd immunity claim.

esalman
4 replies
17h14m

even Fauci has made mistakes he has later had to correct/retract, like his early herd immunity claim.

You get new evidence and you update your beliefs. This is literally how science works and progress is made. If you had to put every student of science on the spot for everything wrong they said/did, there wouldn't be as much progress.

greentxt
3 replies
14h8m

Why downvote, that's exactly what I said. I'm glad you agree that even experts make mistakes. It would be truly strange to argue that point, though many have and do. With respect to Gell-Mann amnesia, to be more exlicit since it seems that's needed, it's really just a side effect of our heuristics. Most of the time you can turn your brain off and follow the crowd, widespread consensus is a safe bet, but you have to leave room for occasionsl mistakes, as you acknowledge. Taking mental shortcuts, being lazy conformists is in no way exceptional. Humans are mostly stupid creatures, even experts.

esalman
2 replies
12h50m

Um I don't really agree. Making mistakes is not the same as changing opinion based on new evidence.

Fauci changed opinions, a lot of experts do. It's only the lay people with no idea how science works who will call it a "mistake".

Actually it's worse than that, people have openly harassed and threatened Fauci and his family for doing what he did. That's unfair and borderline evil.

vasco
0 replies
10h55m

He also made mistakes, like telling us masks didn't work to save stock, and then changing guidance when there was enough stock. It's ok, as we're saying here anyone is entitled some mistakes along the way, but nobody is perfect, and overall we got through the worst of it, so it wasn't that bad.

greentxt
0 replies
6h37m

Well if you think he didn't make mistakes, or think that any human is error free, then you have an oppinion that is not based on science. Some sort of zealotry or hero worship or something along those lines. Fauci made mistakes. Science makes mistakes. To err is human. You might want to reevaluaute your beliefs and maybe read some of the copious amount of scientific and philosophic literature on the topic. Everyone makes mistakes.

Pxtl
0 replies
17h56m

I always think Gell-Mann Amnesia is funny because the namer of it was a medical doctor who wrote a book about about how climate change is fake.

outworlder
0 replies
13h9m

I often think back to Fauci during HIV/AIDS while reflecting on the current situation around COVID and I think we got lucky to find somebody like him, even if he said a few dumb things, and we'll be lucky if any public servants are willing to take up his role in the future.

Hopefully, the next administration doesn't come up with Schedule F once again and make all health-related government jobs political.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schedule_F_appointment

kennethwolters
0 replies
8h25m

Don't forget Kary Mullis as another famous scientist thinking HIV does not cause AIDS. I personally don't know what to make of Mullis' and Duesberg's claims. But I found an interesting Mullis article recently in which he presents a hypothesis about how AIDS could develop independently of HIV. Quite interesting, but I am guessing nothing really more than that. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01435010 The article is unfortunately paywalled.

dylan604
0 replies
19h18m

we'll be lucky if any public servants are willing to take up his role in the future

Sadly, there will be plenty of people desperately wanting that job. It is definitely a prime example of the saying those that want the job would not be good at the job and those that would be good at the job do not want it. Especially in today's environments where it will become a bully pulpit to push whatever agenda of whoever is in charge

devonsolomon
22 replies
11h30m

I briefly did some work with an HIV research organization in South Africa.

One dynamic I was shocked to hear was the prevalence of marriages where one partner (always the husband in this context) is HIV positive and the other is secretly on prep. In this context infidelity may be a norm and traditional cultural and gender norms may look negatively or skeptically at anti-retrovirals.

While this isn’t the majority of the HIV experience in South Africa, it’s certainly a sizable group.

Further, adherence more generally is a massive problem. The cost of travel to a clinic in both rural and urban settings can be prohibitive for many and cause major adherence drop-off.

Drugs like this, if made affordable, will go a long way to immediately easing pressure on these groups - and that’s exciting.

jncfhnb
18 replies
4h45m

Why would someone secretly be on prep

ttul
14 replies
4h10m

So that their partner doesn’t think they are cheating.

jncfhnb
13 replies
4h8m

Why would it imply they are cheating and not simply protecting themselves from their partner’s HIV?

ttul
10 replies
4h3m

We are used to a western perspective on marriage, where the playing field is generally level between partners. In Africa, there is often a huge power imbalance between men and women in marriage. A woman particularly might want to keep her prescription status a secret because it suggests that she might be cheating on her husband. Even though it may seem obvious to us in the west that taking medication to avoid contracting HIV from our spouse is an obvious and reasonable thing to do, in Africa, it would be more culturally acceptable for the wife to remain vulnerable to contracting HIV from her husband because that would also infer that she is not sneaking around having sex with other men.

Source: Was born in South Africa.

jncfhnb
9 replies
4h0m

Why would the woman getting HIV imply she cannot be cheating on her husband?

opprobium
8 replies
3h36m

From the perspective of the husband, the woman taking prep implies she is cheating. He either doesn't get tested or doesn't care, it's more important that she not do the thing that implies she could be cheating than that she not get HIV, and that she be sexually available to him.

You're digging for a logical explanation for a fundamentally illogical cultural problem and you aren't going to get it.

jncfhnb
3 replies
1h13m

No, that doesn’t make sense. And writing it off as an illogical cultural problem is just lazy. I’ll believe these guys are assholes. I don’t believe they’re just consistently idiots. If the men refused to acknowledge that they had HIV and refused to allow their wives to get prep, then the logical consequence is that the wife gets HIV and the men are forced to confront the fact that either the husbands themselves have HIV or the wife is cheating and got it from someone else.

It seems much more likely that the husbands refuse to allow their wives to get prep out of spite. The implication of infidelity angle does not feel plausible.

Otherwise the men are setting themselves up for a lose:lose scenario regardless of what the wife does.

opprobium
2 replies
47m

"the men are forced to confront the fact..." No they aren't, they simply never confront it. People go to their graves denying that they have HIV, denying that they ever tested positive, denying that a positive HIV test has anything to do with illness.

"Otherwise the men are setting themselves up for a lose:lose scenario regardless of what the wife does." - Of course.

I mean, the most rational win:win thing to do is to get an HIV test and get treated if positive. They then both don't get sick and die and can't pass along HIV. Many people don't do that either. What's the mindset that explains this behavior? You can't work backwards from the most rational thing to do to what people actually do.

jncfhnb
1 replies
36m

You are the one injecting this narrative about women cheating though. It seems to me you’re just making this up. It doesn’t make sense.

Establishing the narrative that if my wife gets HIV that she must be cheating on me is a losing proposition for the man that only increases the probability that his wife will appear to be cheating. There is no motivation for it.

Simply being a dick and saying women can’t use prep because I don’t want them to is a much simpler narrative.

Your reasoning here is similar to arguing they’re a stupid people ergo they don’t use prep because of aliens. It’s not compelling even if you’re willing to believe they may engage in irrational behavior.

opprobium
0 replies
9m

You asked "why would someone hide prep", you got one example. It is by no means an exhaustive list. For example, a big fear is being perceived as having HIV (since prep drugs are also part of HIV treatment).

If you do actually have interest in this topic you could read about it:

https://www.aidsmap.com/news/feb-2020/your-partner-not-angel...

"Men were able to initiate PrEP without discussing it with their partners, whereas some women said they needed to get permission. Discussions around starting PrEP could raise questions about trust and infidelity and act as a barrier to PrEP use."

cubefox
3 replies
2h39m

From the perspective of the husband, the woman taking prep implies she is cheating.

But that only makes sense if the husband thinks his wife doesn't believe he has HIV.

vlovich123
2 replies
1h10m

> You're digging for a logical explanation for a fundamentally illogical cultural problem and you aren't going to get it.

But that only makes sense if

Reread and if you’re still not getting it, keep rereading your parent’s line that I highlighted for you.

jncfhnb
1 replies
1h7m

Quoting this line is not a blanket pass to say whatever you want about a culture credibly.

vlovich123
0 replies
12m

Well, you have an anecdote from someone claiming to be from SA saying that’s culturally the perception. Here’s a summary of research [1] on the topic concluding similar reasons (among others):

Several participants felt that they could stop taking PrEP when the need, as they saw it, had passed. Often this was to do with the nature of their current relationship, for example with a person regarded as unfaithful: “If I find someone that I will be in a relationship with and if he is not faithful, or I have started being unfaithful, then I will come back and get them.”

And

On the basis of these findings, the authors suggest that take-up and continued use of PrEP is likely to remain subject to established social norms. These norms often relate to gender and they determine, for example, who decides what HIV prevention methods to use, and the extent to which a woman in a relationship might – or might not – be able to make and implement such choices.

Just because something seems logical to you, doesn’t mean that social norms and pressures don’t superseded it. In fact, we even see it in our own cultural with people believing vaccines cause autism, the whole belief that ivermectin cures COVID-19, or flat earthers. What’s really impressive though is you having such a problem with this idea despite overwhelming objective evidence to the contrary being available online and people telling you their lived experience on this very website and you significantly discount the very real possibility that people can be illogical in their strongly held beliefs even if it seems nonsensical to you. If you know nothing about a subject, you’re likely to believe what all your peers tell you which is how misinformation gets a foothold. This misinformation can even come from nowhere. The point is that if enough people believe it, they can get others to believe it to. That’s literally how human belief systems work where beliefs spring out of nothing.

[1] https://www.aidsmap.com/news/sep-2020/why-do-people-southern...

wityl
1 replies
4h1m

Because the partner doesn't test for HIV and/or is in denial that they have it or that it will affect them.

These are cultural contexts where the woman has no right to question any of this.

jncfhnb
0 replies
3h55m

Well that’s a stupid answer but it seems consistent and feasible I guess.

esond
1 replies
4h10m

Because their husband secretly has HIV? Secret outside of the relationship, that is.

jncfhnb
0 replies
4h4m

You’re implying that the prep and HIV are known internally to the marriage but secret externally? That seems unlikely. Taking medication in private does not seem to qualify as a “secret” to me

opprobium
0 replies
4h9m

Because they can get HIV from their husband, but also cannot discuss HIV, refuse sex, or take prevention steps for themselves without reprisal.

cassepipe
1 replies
4h9m

I don't understand your point, can you elaborate on the dynamics at play ?

whimsicalism
0 replies
3h6m

there are a lot of conspiracy theories around hiv treatment in Africa, particularly SA

b800h
0 replies
4h16m

Do any of these drugs cross the placenta?

musha68k
19 replies
21h16m

Amazing. I guess SARS-CoV-2 is much less stable in comparison to HIV?

Higher mutation rate and other shifts vs broadly neutralizing antibodies? Anyways, it would be nice to fully "solve" COVID-19 as it's still wreaking havoc somewhat silently (?)

I also wonder when or if we'll see therapeutic vaccines against either of these and more sooner than later?

Each time I only briefly start staring into the abyss that is "wetware" I'm gladly returning to our comparatively trivial (self-inflicted) complexity in the world of software / computing.

frankus
7 replies
21h6m

I'm not sure if taking e.g. Paxlovid as pre-exposure prophylaxis has been studied, but my guess is that the side effects from the drug are worse in the long run than the disease itself (especially if the seriousness can be blunted via vaccination).

Since people don't spontaneously recover from HIV infection, and the PrEP drugs have relatively few side-effects, the tradeoff is more favorable.

worstspotgain
5 replies
20h1m

Turns out you can do Covid PrEP with just Neosporin in your nose. It works for other pathogens too:

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2319566121

In case you're wondering, this paper is 100% legit, see e.g. the bio for the big-shot author: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akiko_Iwasaki

No clue if this easy trick would induce immune escape if a large number of people started using it. I guess it's a good time to get in on the ground floor.

youainti
1 replies
19h4m

To be a little more precise:

1. "Prophylactic or therapeutic administration of neomycin provided significant protection against upper respiratory infection and lethal disease in a mouse model of COVID-19." 2. "Furthermore, neomycin treatment protected Mx1 congenic mice from upper and lower respiratory infections with a highly virulent strain of influenza A virus. " 3. "In Syrian hamsters, neomycin treatment potently mitigated contact transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)." 4. "In healthy humans, intranasal application of neomycin-containing Neosporin ointment was well tolerated and effective at inducing ISG expression in the nose in a subset of participants."

The mechanism appears to be that Neosporin triggers an ISG[1] (immune) response? Not a biologist etc, but the results showing that it prevents transmission is only in rodent models, and then showing that a similar biomarker shows up in (some of) the participants and the rodent models. They authors say:

"These findings suggest that neomycin has the potential to be harnessed as a host-directed antiviral strategy for the prevention and treatment of respiratory viral infections."

[1]

aardvark92
1 replies
14h53m

This paper gets ripped into in my favorite podcast, TWiV (This Week in Virology)!

Essentially, yes, neomycin in the nose, if timed perfectly, can activate the innate immune system, but en mass this practice would cause the spread of antibiotic resistance.

Link: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-week-in-virology/...

worstspotgain
0 replies
14h16m

If it turned out to work great in practice and people started using it en masse, the benefits would greatly outweigh the costs IMO, particularly if it snuffed out Covid and/or the flu. If it ends up being a niche thing, I doubt it would bite into the resistance numbers.

Besides, we're already spiraling down the resistance chasm with antibacterial soaps, stuffing cattle with antibiotics, overprescribing, and so on.

AuryGlenz
0 replies
13h3m

You don’t even need that. Carrageenan works: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8493111/

Obviously it’s not stimulating the immune system but it works as an antiviral barrier. I’ve been using it since I read that study and I’ve avoid 2 of my daughter’s colds since (and still got 3). That might not sound impressive but I have a terrible immune system and haven’t avoided a cold from someone I’ve had close exposure to in as long as I can remember.

That said, I might need to add some Neosporin to my mixture when she comes home with her nose running.

ds_opseeker
0 replies
20h20m

In the long run, the side effect of HIV is death due to total collapse of the immune system.

worstspotgain
5 replies
20h13m

There are several variant-resistant pan-Covid/pan-Sarbecovirus/etc. vaccines under development [1], including one by the US Army [2].

Vaccines are notoriously slow to develop, perfect, and test for safety and efficacy. The original Covid mRNA vaccines were developed at breakneck speeds as far as vaccines go. Unfortunately, much of the funding has since dried up.

In fact, it's HIV that's much harder to develop a vaccine for. HIV vaccine research has been going on for 40 years and hasn't really had any candidates that went beyond "plausible" until recently.

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-023-01116-8

[2] https://mrdc.health.mil/index.cfm/media/news_releases/2021/p...

nothercastle
4 replies
18h35m

The covid vaccine was barely a vaccine. It was more like a flu shot in its efficacy and with significant more side effects

worstspotgain
2 replies
18h20m

Uh, no. It's actually extremely effective against the target variant. The original Wuhan strain is extinct as a result. In areas with high vaccine uptake, the population has very high levels of neutralizing antibodies against it, to this day. Even if it somehow broke out again, it would die off within weeks, as most of the population is immune to it.

Evolution has driven the virus away from the neutralizing antibodies. This is called immune escape. Recent variants have very little antigenic overlap with the original strain. The original antibodies are not very effective, so people can actually get sick once again.

The FDA now updates the vaccine formulation every year. This means that every year, there is a time window during which the vaccine formulation and the circulating variant are the same. If you get an updated shot as soon as it becomes available, you're immune for all practical purposes until a new variant emerges.

AuryGlenz
1 replies
16h25m

Right, but most diseases we have vaccines for can’t easily evolve their way out of them like in this case. That’s kind of the point.

And you’re far from immune with the newest formulations. From the CDC: “People who received the updated COVID-19 vaccine were 54% less likely to get COVID-19 during the four-month period from mid-September 2023 to January 2024.”

https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/whats-new/covid-19-vaccine-effecti...

Even with the original strain/vaccine, effectiveness waned after 6 months.

worstspotgain
0 replies
15h24m

The updated 2023 vaccine was based on XBB.1.5. In the period you quoted, the variants based on the massive BA.2.86 saltation took over, including JN.1 which was fully dominant by January. XBB.1.5 and BA.2.86 are antigenically very different. I would not be surprised if the case ratio between the two branches during the period was in fact 55:45, i.e. matching the CDC's 54%.

Regrettably, this is one's on the FDA, as XBB.1.5 was already on the way out when the FDA chose it. Part of the problem was their desire to include Novavax in the lineup. It has a much longer update turnaround time than Moderna and Pfizer, and Novavax had already committed to XBB.1.5 by the time the 2023 VRBPAC meeting took place.

As for the original vaccine, the waning measurements were in terms of antibody titers, not in terms of actual effectiveness against the target variant. Delta emerged in the spring of 2021, and it had significant immune escape from WT (Wuhan.) By the time the population was immunized against WT, Delta had already driven WT out.

There have not been many reported cases of non-immunocompromised people getting infected with the exact same variant they had been vaccinated against or previously infected with, particularly with WT. There has been too much evolution in the timeline to even dig out the signal.

The original WT mRNA effectiveness measurements were 92-95% IIRC. For all we know, the missing 5-8% might be attributable to immune deficits, early infections, and/or incomplete B-cell maturation. I haven't noticed any research that measured the likelihood of single-variant breakthrough infection, but if you find some I'd like to look at it.

As for other diseases, they are not in the pandemic phase, so their vaccines can be optimized accordingly.

I would dispute that "easily evolve" notion, though. There have been billions of Covid cases since 2019, including countless immunocompromised patients who are basically walking virus incubators. Yet there have only been a handful of major saltations. It's actually quite likely that Covid will eventually be defeated completely.

CyberDildonics
0 replies
18h0m
Fomite
2 replies
20h34m

HIV is notoriously unstable - RNA viruses don't contain any error checking during replication. Which is one reason HIV drugs, including those one, are almost always used in combination.

uiberto
1 replies
19h38m

coronaviruses are also RNA viruses, fwiw

Horffupolde
0 replies
17h17m

It’s a different kind. HIV is a retrovirus in that RNA is reverse transcribed into DNA. Coronavirus transcribes to RNA directly.

opprobium
0 replies
20h0m

This injection isn't a vaccine, it's an anti-viral drug being used as pre-exposure prophylaxis. The first approval of this approach was in 2012, but using an oral pill with a short half-life taken daily.

That drug is still in use and also highly effective, the new improvement is to provide the same approach with a longer acting injected drug. One reason there has been great interest in this, despite the already effective oral PREP, is that there are thought to be socio-behavior advantages for cases like women in Africa as in this study. For example: the woman does not have to keep a supply of daily pills that a partner can find. Also possibly improved adherence with no missed doses.

The drug itself is not thought to be more biologically effective than the oral drugs, which are basically already at close to 100% effective assuming the patient actually takes them as scheduled.

mywacaday
0 replies
19h26m

I tested positive for COVID last weekend, was out of action for three days and spiked a 40.3C/104.5f fever. It was worse than when I got it three years ago.

xs83
8 replies
19h10m

Awesome news - we will eradicate HIV within the a single generation at this rate!

greazy
2 replies
19h6m

Only if we push for treatments to be cheap and widely available throughout the world and especially in Africa.

Unfortunately it takes many years or evens decades for developing countries to afford these treatments.

dashundchen
1 replies
16h42m

Programs like George Bush's PEPFAR have made great strides in fighting HIV globally through treatment and prevention. Estimated at 25 millions lives saved in 20 years, mostly in Africa.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/President%27s_Emergency_Plan...

Unfortunately it's become a target of the right wing culture warriors and certain groups are trying to gut it, after huge strides have been made in reducing global transmission of HIV.

vasco
0 replies
10h50m

Yeah but the united states is also the main cause of developing countries not having access to cheap medicines through the enforcement of IP laws. You can look up the special case of India and Brazil who managed to negotiate in a much better way and so are entitled to cheaper treatments.

I know someone from a EU country that had to do medical tourism to Brazil to afford hepatitis and HIV treatment as the drugs are so expensive that the doctors at public hospitals (in that country at least) will not prescribed them and instead manage the illness in other ways for the first few years. This is bad because the disease progresses faster.

JumpCrisscross
1 replies
18h30m

we will eradicate HIV within the a single generation at this rate

If there is one place socialised medicine makes so much sense that almost any argument against it is invalid, it's around contagious diseases. The prevention and treatment, inasmuch as it reduces transmission, which is true of virtually all HIV treatments, should be as effortless as possible. That starts with making it free.

oopsallmagic
0 replies
14h4m

We had a taste when COVID shots were free, and it was magical. So nice not having to make 16 phone calls and then getting billed $800 "by mistake", followed by 20 more phone calls to fix it, only to find out that the pharmacist's sister's mailman was out of network, so we're sending your bill to collections because it got lost in the mail.

yieldcrv
0 replies
17h31m

not this generation given how long approvals take, but a single one when we get around to it!

xeonmc
0 replies
17h33m

These are really Aladeen news!

Klaster_1
0 replies
13h27m

Wouldn't complete eradication mean eradication in all countries? Given HIV policies degradation in Russia, which is significantly affected and has a sizeable population, your assumptions sounds too optimistic, even though I agree that would be a great achievement.

ryanhunt
3 replies
16h49m

This is amazing, but surely I'm not the only one who is struck by the irony of a company called 'Gilead' who is trying to save the human race? (Handmaid's tale reference)

yieldcrv
0 replies
15h49m

The book and show is the irony

But maybe this company can incorporate all that in their market to targeted ad the nation’s schizophrenics, the ones that will draw a connection where there is none

ffgjgf1
0 replies
9h58m

Not particularly? Considering that they had this same name for > 30 years..

alpinisme
0 replies
16h32m

Gilead is a biblical place, and its presence in Handmaid’s Tale is an allusion to that (ditto for the novel Gilead by Marilynne Robinson).

It appears the company name is an allusion to the balm of Gilead (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balm_of_Gilead)

retrac
3 replies
19h17m

Just to be clear, this is not a vaccine. It is an antiviral drug delivered by a long-lasting subdermal delivery implant. It has been known that antiviral drugs effectively prevent HIV infection for some time now (about 20 years). Recent work has been on better-tolerated and longer-lasting formulations.

Treatment of HIV+ people also reduces their infectiousness, and good treatment reduces the risk of passing the infection on nearly to zero. Providing sufficient HIV antivirals and medical care to everyone in the population, both HIV+ and at risk for HIV, in theory, could be enough to halt the pandemic. Some wealthy countries with sensible policies have seen remarkable gains. The UK is reasonably effective at getting drugs to both the HIV+ and to at-risk populations, and the number of new HIV infections there, has been reduced by approximately half in the last decade.

cj
1 replies
18h46m

It’s not a vaccine, but it’s close to one at twice a year.

Even if we can consider HIV “cured” in the developed world (where PrEP is available to anyone who wants it) there’s no way we eradicate HIV from impoverished countries with limited healthcare access until we either have 1) a vaccine, or 2) a shot (or something) that prevents HIV for a really freaking long time.

Not sure if 6 months will quite cut it, but it’s great to see progress in the right direction. More advancement is needed.

Frost1x
0 replies
17h38m

I assume you’re referring to things like the flu vaccine. Many vaccines can last 10, 20 years or more which this doesn’t come close to.

That’s not to say it’s not a great improvement, I happily await the day we can nearly eliminate some of these infectious diseases that plague humanity.

worldvoyageur
2 replies
22h32m

From Gilead's press release:

" PURPOSE 1, a Phase 3, double-blind, randomized study, is evaluating the safety and efficacy of twice-yearly, subcutaneous lenacapavir for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and once-daily oral Descovy® (emtricitabine 200mg and tenofovir alafenamide 25mg; F/TAF) in more than 5,300 cisgender women and adolescent girls aged 16-25 across 25 sites in South Africa and three sites in Uganda. The drugs are being tested in parallel, with one group receiving twice-yearly lenacapavir and one group taking once-daily oral Descovy. Additionally, a third group was assigned once-daily oral Truvada. Study participants were randomized in a 2:2:1 ratio to lenacapavir, Descovy and Truvada, respectively. Because effective PrEP options already exist, there is broad consensus in the PrEP field that a placebo group would be unethical; thus, the trial used bHIV as the primary comparator and Truvada as a secondary comparator.

There were 0 incident cases of HIV infection among 2,134 women in the lenacapavir group (incidence 0.00 per 100 person-years). There were 16 incident cases among 1,068 women in the Truvada group (incidence 1.69 per 100 person-years). The results demonstrated superiority of twice-yearly lenacapavir over bHIV (primary endpoint, incidence 2.41 per 100 person-years) and superiority of twice-yearly lenacapavir over once-daily Truvada (secondary endpoint), with p<0.0001 for both endpoints. In the trial, lenacapavir was generally well-tolerated and no significant or new safety concerns were identified.

[...]

Gilead expects results in late 2024/early 2025 from the program’s other pivotal trial, PURPOSE 2, which is assessing twice-yearly lenacapavir for PrEP among cisgender men who have sex with men, transgender men, transgender women and gender non-binary individuals who have sex with partners assigned male at birth in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand and the United States. "

levocardia
0 replies
21h38m

This is a legitimately amazing result and a huge win against HIV. I hope it replicates in PURPOSE 2. Zero incident cases in an at-risk population is, frankly, fantastic, in a country where prevalence of HIV ranges from 12-27% depending on the province.

hawk_
0 replies
20h47m

VaaS (Vaccine as a Service) suits Gilead as a business model,

wouldbecouldbe
1 replies
19h21m

Can’t read the full article but how is this different from prep? It’s widely used in prevention in the gay community.

[edit] it’s prep, it’s been in use for several years already, but this injection last longer

wrs
0 replies
19h19m

Twice-yearly shot rather than daily pill.

m3kw9
0 replies
2h7m

Make it cheap, have high risk ppl get it free and eradicate it

DoreenMichele
0 replies
18h59m

Excellent news. HIV is nasty stuff. It acts sort of like an acquired genetic disorder.

It's a retrovirus, so it makes two copies of itself and replaces cellular DNA. Two RNA welded together make up DNA, so it more or less gives you the equivalent of a genetic disorder.