return to table of content

How to build a $20B semiconductor fab

gjkood
29 replies
22h40m

I have been listening to Kai Ryssdal's Marketplace on NPR/KQED the last few days on my commute home from work.

The topic for the last several days was on the CHIPS And Science Act and the new Semiconductor Fabs being built by TSMC and Intel in Phoenx, AZ.

It will be several years before the plants already being constructed will go into production but there is a whole ecosystem of current construction, education of the future workforce that will need to be hired in the future. Not to mention all the ancilliary companies that are needed to support these gigantic plants in the area.

The dollars from CHIPS Act are not only bringing in the manufacturing plants but will be essential to bring this lost capability back to the US in the scale needed both from an economic and national security perspective.

It was great listening to the show and the impact the CHIPS Act on people's lives already happening now and in the future.

For anyone interested the links to the specific shows are available as podcasts here.

https://www.npr.org/podcasts/381444600/marketplace

wuj
12 replies
21h48m

TSMC has moved many engineers from Taiwan to Phoenix. Entire towns were built with accomodation, schools, ethnic grocery stores from scratch. It would be interesting to see this initiative's cultural and economic impact on Phoenix in the years to come.

psaux
4 replies
21h10m

I did not know this, I have family in Tempe close by. Do you have any references I can pass along to them?

gjkood
2 replies
20h23m

I believe the new term for Phoenix, AZ and other major cities in AZ is "Silicon Desert". You can see a map of the many companies in the high tech space in AZ at the following site.

https://siliconmaps.com/silicon-desert/

zdw
0 replies
15h31m

Being an AZ resident, this map is hilarious as it skips out the ~100 mile distance between Chandler and Tucson.

Tucson is more well known for optics, but more focused on space science than on use in silicon fabs.

davidgay
0 replies
18h5m

Major semiconductor manufacturing in Arizona is not exactly new: Motorola had fabs there in the 70s (or earlier?), Intel's presence dates to 1980, etc. The article [1] below from 2001 says that Arizona was "3rd in chipmaking"...

[1] https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?id=GALE%7CA79561583&sid=googleSc...

wuj
0 replies
20h27m

Here is an article from Phoenix Business Journal:

https://archive.ph/dYCAF

With Taiwanese transplants moving to north Phoenix in droves, Arizona officials — and a local baker — are working behind the scenes to make them feel welcome
jacobsimon
2 replies
4h14m

I’m hugely supportive of the new factories and investments, but I’m curious why they decided on Phoenix which seems to be affected dramatically by climate change and incidentally has a very different climate and culture from Taiwan.

11thEarlOfMar
0 replies
4h3m

There are already a number of fabs there. Intel has a big presence. Government support, infranstructure and an experienced (although insufficient at this point) workforce are already there.

The reason there is a chip fab activity in Phoenix goes back to 1949 [0] when Motorola built a lab there. In 1952, they started making semiconductors and eventually chips.

[0] https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?id=GALE%7CA79561583&sid=googleSc...

onthecanposting
0 replies
3h7m

Honestly, this sounds like normal life being a junior employee at a big company. An ossified clique of old guard managers pick winners and losers with little regard for merit? Unbelievable bureaucratic overhead? Your boss expects you to flatter and fawn all over him because he allows you to work 50-60hrs a week at 80% the median salary without overtime pay? Sorry to say, this is just what they're all like. Do good work, make friends, and try to get a job at a small company where people treat each other decently and incompetents can't hide in the crowd.

wslh
0 replies
6h55m

Could we say this is the "Manhattan or Apollo 11 Project for Chips"? For its articulation.

BTW, about this topic, I always recall "A View To Kill" James Bond's (1985) movie [1]. The top hit in the soundtrack from Duran Duran [2] is also recommended and playing in radios even today. Seems like Intel passed the torch long time ago but don't forget to read the mantra book: "Only the Paranoid Survive" [3].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_View_to_a_Kill

[2] https://open.spotify.com/track/6I4snLrVOrJsLdd43isc27?si=7ba...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Grove#Books

jonhohle
0 replies
12h37m

I’m not sure where “towns” (plural) are being built. The first plant is across the highway from a master planned community that was built 20 years ago, long before any fabs were being discussed in that area.

There certainly is a lot of development there, but it’s not like a factory town or anything.

There’s an outdoor recreational shooting facility across the street. I can only assume that is a huge culture shock for anyone coming over from Taiwan.

trwm
9 replies
18h15m

Yes this is called a positive externality.

It is why outsourcing produced much more devastation than was promised and why onshoring will create much more work than expected.

The end result currently will likely be stagflation since like always politiciand do the wrong thing even when doing the right thing.

VHRanger
8 replies
15h13m

That's not why outsourcing created devastation.

The issue without outsourcing is that the benefits are widespread (lower prices!) but the drawbacks are concentrated (factory town is now a hellhole). And our political system is incapable of redistributing correctly even though the net effect is highly positive.

The seminal study on the topic is the "China shock" paper from Autor et Al.:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w21906

drevil-v2
3 replies
7h14m

Why would lower prices be beneficial? Americans already had the highest living standards in the world.

bradleyjg
2 replies
6h31m

In 600 BCE some population had the highest living standards in the world. Was that the peak of human flourishing that we ever should have aspired to?

drevil-v2
1 replies
3h3m

Still have not answered my question. Why is lower prices better? Why would vastly higher consumption coupled with vastly decreased production be beneficial?

bradleyjg
0 replies
1h43m

More things, less work sounds like utopia to me. Bring on the replicators!

trwm
1 replies
15h5m

The multiplier effect is well known and understood. Nit sure why you're arguing against it.

philosopher1234
0 replies
11h25m

I don’t know or understand this multiplier effect you’re referring to. If you’d like to persuade me (and I assume other readers) explaining your argument might be more effective. Instead I get a sense of “don’t argue against me” as opposed to “this is why I’m right”

specialist
0 replies
1h10m

2016

More recently, the drawbacks have been far more global in nature.

TeMPOraL
0 replies
10h4m

Strange, because put this way, it should be entirely positive - widespread benefits and concentrated drawbacks are what we want to happen, as it benefits more people and concentrated problems are much easier to manage. What's very bad is when benefits are concentrated (often in the hands of a small group), and drawbacks are widespread, and therefore near-impossible to manage. See e.g. pollution, emissions...

... and outsourcing. The benefits are concentrated: profits captured by the companies doing the outsourcing. Sure, they may sometimes trickle down to the consumer, but the costs - the distributed drawbacks - are inferior quality of goods, elimination of local jobs, high ecological footprint, abusive business practices, lack of effective customer support. And the extra magic here is, it spreads direct responsibility over national borders, so it's near-impossible to hold anyone to account.

moneywoes
2 replies
15h17m

ancilliary companies

any pertinent examples? r.g. schools for workers families ?

gjkood
1 replies
12h56m

The show was talking about chip packaging companies to create the end usable chips from the silicon produced.

Just for the construction work alone, they mentioned that the pipefitters local union membership has doubled since 2020. Refinery level complexity on the specialized piping needs for the plants.

Special training programs geared towards the semiconductor industry being offered in the local Community and Trade schools training people to be the skilled and semi-skilled workforce for these companies.

People who were teachers now making four times the income working on the construction project.

everybodyknows
0 replies
34m

People who were teachers now making four times the income working on the construction project.

Targeted investment! Toward future generations of chips, rather than of people.

ijidak
2 replies
15h1m

So, is Intel buying ASML EUV machines for their build out in Arizona?

It seems like Intel is skipping ASML EUV entirely.

If that's the case, I'm trying to understand how Intel ever gets decent yields at 7nm to 5nm.

It's definitely not coming from High-NA, which seems like a short-term distraction.

ac29
1 replies
13h5m

Intel is using EUV for Intel 4, which has been shipping in volume since the beginning of the year.

ijidak
0 replies
3h50m

Aha. Thank you so much for that.

ghghgfdfgh
17 replies
22h23m

Somewhat related: a high school student creating his own semiconductor fav in his parent’s garage on a "budget".

https://youtube.com/watch?v=IS5ycm7VfXg

It’s a thoroughly interesting video, but I’m a bit disappointed he never took his idea any further than he did. I’d really love to see something like a 6502 being made at home.

ghghgfdfgh
11 replies
20h28m

That's good for him, but it means we'll never find out in the near future whether it's possible for the average person to create useful ICs in their garage.

nwiswell
9 replies
18h13m

It's very similar to creating clothes by hand at home.

Can you do it, given the right tools, training, and patience? Yes.

Will they be any good? No.

Will they be cost-competitive? No.

Getting chips made on a shuttle run for an old node is very affordable. There's really no need for it.

(According to one MPW supplier, 10mm2 of 340nm, up to 10 dies, costs 6400 euros, and it's unlikely 340nm is achievable in a garage anyway)

xeonmc
3 replies
14h49m

really the main dealbreaker is HF at home, the rest of chipmaking really isn't that complicated on the process level for a crude design.

ghghgfdfgh
2 replies
12h59m

Most rust cleaner that you buy at the store is HF solution. For example, the one that teen used was 1.5% HF.

nwiswell
1 replies
12h41m

I can't believe that worked.

Industrially (by which I mean how it was done circa 1970), silicon oxide and silicon nitride was etched using a buffered HF solution known as BOE (buffered oxide etchant). The buffer was typically ammonium fluoride; because of the presence of the buffer, the concentration of fluorine ions in solution stays constant even as some of the fluorine attacks the substrate to form e.g. hexafluorosilicic acid. Since the concentration of fluorine stays constant, so does the etch rate.

If you just pull some rust cleaner off the shelf at home depot, the etch rate will crash as the concentration of fluorine ions decreases. That's compounded by the fact that the HF concentration isn't very high in the first place.

As a result it would be very difficult to determine how long your wafer should remain in the etch bath. Underetching could easily cause "opens" in the circuits from unremoved insulator, and overetching and/or undercut can destroy the patterns you're trying to produce. Either way it can ruin the chip.

ghghgfdfgh
0 replies
1h3m

Yep, he used an ammonium fluoride buffer. > Instead of a standard HF etch, a buffered oxide etch of NH4F (Ammonium Fluoride) in HF can be used to control the etch rate and photoresist lifting. I use approximately 20-30g of 100% NH4F per 50mL of HF (stock whink rust remover)

Ammonium fluoride definitely isn’t as easily accessible as rust cleaner, but you could buy it for a somewhat cheap price on Amazon.

ghghgfdfgh
2 replies
15h4m

From a business perspective, I agree that it’s a fool’s errand. But imagine being able to design and tangibly build your own computer, at home. 6400 euros is pennies for a business, but exorbitant for an individual.

I believe the way Sam Zeloof circumvents the enormous amount of capital needed for a chip fab by relying on modern technology to create 1970’s technology. He simply mounts a cheap digital projector onto a cheap microscope - they didn’t have that advantage in the 70s, and thus it cost millions to start a chip fab. My point is that it could conceivably be doable for an individual to create old computing technology with the advantages of living in the modern world. I certainly don’t have the drive to do it, but I wish someone did.

nwiswell
1 replies
12h59m

You'd spend far more than 6400 euros to do it at home.

If you did it often and didn't count your own labor costs, then maybe the average cost would be less, but that's an incredibly specific situation.

I believe the way Sam Zeloof circumvents the enormous amount of capital needed for a chip fab by relying on modern technology to create 1970’s technology

Yes, exactly.

Old lithographic technology is so crude that you can even use modern high resolution laserjets to print masks (10000 dpi is less than 3 microns).

Even so, 1970s-era CVD, PVD, and plasma etch is still quite complicated, and CMP is impossible (it hadn't even been invented yet). So the devices you can create are significantly integration-constrained.

_Microft
0 replies
6h0m

Do you have examples for models of laser printers can actually achieve a resolution of 10000dpi? It doesn't need to be office equipment. Any example would suffice as I so far thought that laser printouts were limited to a maximum resolution between 1200 and 2400dpi.

ghaff
0 replies
9h48m

Maybe a little different. For narrow enough definitions of "clothing," homemade clothing can be good. And there are other artisanal homemade crafts (e.g. woodworking) that can be good. But I agree in general.

abdullahkhalids
0 replies
15h4m

Will it give a 100% guarantee that there are no backdoors in your device? Yes.

This yes can be priceless in some circumstances.

trueismywork
0 replies
19h8m

It's possible yes, but not really..

pests
3 replies
15h47m

You say ex AMD like that's all he's known for. Jim Keller is like some fairy who flies around companies designing sota chips.

From DEC, to AMD, to ARM and Broadcom, his own firm, hops over to Apple which then buys his old firm, heads back to ARM and then over to Tesla and finally one last stop at Intel before going into startup land again.

Worked on the K7/K8, MIPs for networking, did the A4 and A5 for Apple, on the Zen/K12, and the Tesla TPU.

amelius
2 replies
9h11m

But building a fab is less about designing chips (which is a lot like programming) and more about chemistry and fundamental physics.

So that fairy is completely useless in this context.

mensetmanusman
1 replies
5h13m

Good design incorporates materials and process limitations, which in this industry changes every other year enough to matter.

amelius
0 replies
3h43m

That doesn't mean you need an IC designer to build a fab.

narrator
10 replies
20h59m

I've been to a number of big construction sites for business purposes. When I hear, "this is a $40 million dollar project" and when I see all these workmen, equipment and materials moving around, I think, so this is what $40 million dollars in motion looks like.

tnmom
9 replies
20h51m

Much of that money goes to permitting, admin, and insurance. What you’re seeing is probably the $10-20 million that wasn’t successfully siphoned off by bureaucrats.

bmiller2
4 replies
19h46m

I don't know why you're being downvoted. There is a reason why development volume across states is asymmetric.

tnmom
1 replies
19h11m

Who knows - it’s just fake internet points. Hard to get worked up about.

zarathustreal
0 replies
17h37m

Kinda easy to guess, there’s really only one possibility and answer: people felt a certain way after reading and voted accordingly. The idea that anyone votes based on the content of what’s been said is false. For example, you’re not gonna upvote a true statement of a statistical fact if you think there’s a terrible reason for it. You’re gonna downvote because you feel bad about what you perceive as the reason regardless

stevofolife
0 replies
13h54m

Downvotes help people skip the noise and focus on the signal. Ain’t nothing wrong with that.

BryantD
0 replies
17h43m

Because “successfully siphoned off by bureaucrats” has an implicit value judgement in it. If someone a) thinks the cost of regulation provides value and b) believes that downvoting is a reasonable response to opinions they disagree with, they’re likely to downvote in this case.

Personally I only believe one of those things. I also believe the point about additional cost of development could have been made without the value judgement.

duxup
2 replies
18h22m

Much of that money goes to permitting,

How much?

SECProto
1 replies
17h4m

Their comment suggests 50 to 75%, which is hilariously high.

duxup
0 replies
15h52m

Yeah that would be an absurd claim.

moneywoes
0 replies
15h11m

is this flow of dollars tracked anywhere

xyst
5 replies
20h39m

At what point will current fabrication plants reach their limit? Is it a supply issue? Or maybe a resource constraint?

Similarly, a fab will use very large amounts of ultrapure water for wafer cleaning and CMP, along with the regular water for things like chillers for process cooling. A large fab can use millions of gallons of ultrapure water a day, as much as a town of 50,000 people, and producing it requires its own specialized plant.

This is wild. All of this water so companies can create chips that will ultimately be used to …

pump out “advanced” chat bots.

I really hope all of this sacrifice is worth it in the end. Climate change is accelerating the loss of drinkable water around the planet.

If the best we could do is a slightly better chat bot, then we are doomed.

patmcc
1 replies
19h45m

"...as much as a town of 50,000 people"

This is always so funny to me. Oh, something that can make enough chips for millions/billions of devices also uses as much water as a small town? That sounds perfectly reasonable. Don't build it in the middle of the desert, I guess, but otherwise it's not a problem.

kortilla
0 replies
17h34m

The desert is fine. That’s like a couple of idiotic farms worth of water for a much larger benefit.

jiggawatts
1 replies
20h36m

The water is not used up, and it doesn’t even evaporate, except for the small amount used in evaporative chillers.

The big scary sounding number at the input has a big number at the output.

Not to mention that up to 98 percent of the water is reused on site. It just gets cleaned and goes back into facility. It’s a big loop, not an input disappearing into a parallel universe.

konfusinomicon
0 replies
19h3m

science be damned, why oh why is all this water pouring into our universe. luckily its not 2% more or we'd all be doomed

mptest
0 replies
19h12m

chat bots

Ignoring Alphafold, moderna partnering with openai, the new class of antibiotics, etc etc. There's a lot more to ai than chat bots. That's a disingenuous reduction.

I agree that it's a bold bet though, burning how many ever billions a year on the hope that ai can help us solve medicine and fusion and climate change.

ijidak
4 replies
18h47m

So, semi-related question.

Is Intel buying any EUV machines from ASML. Not asking about High-NA machines, but regular EUV machines?

I can't find the answer online although I do see that the New Ireland Fab seems to be in the regular EUV range.

Aloisius
2 replies
16h13m

There is no one else to buy EUV machines from. ASML is the sole supplier in the world.

Fab 34 in Ireland got its first ASML EUV machine two years ago.

I don't believe High NA EUV machines will end up in this generation of fabs. The first one was shipped to Intel's dev fab a few months back.

ijidak
1 replies
15h18m

But, did Intel skip EUV entirely, or did it finally start buying EUV machines?

Aloisius
0 replies
14h25m

They use ASML EUV machines today for all their Intel 4 process chips (Meteor Lake so far). They plan to use it for Intel 3, Intel 20A and 18A as well.

Intel 14A will use high-NA EUV.

langsoul-com
0 replies
9h35m

Everyone has to buy from ASML, and even if someone wants one, there's a wait list.

The sheer complexity and costs means there's no real possibility of a competitor. Nor would a billion dollar fab want to experiment with a new company.

kibwen
2 replies
16h59m

Fascinating article, thanks.

> (There is a Moore’s Second Law, also known as Rock’s Law, which posits that the cost of a semiconductor fab doubles every four years.)

If this were to hold, then in under 30 years a single fab would cost more than three trillion dollars, which itself implies a hard upper bound on node improvements by way of economic considerations.

tim333
0 replies
2h4m

Sam Altman was off trying to raise $7 trillion for chips the other day so maybe he's trying to get ahead to the curve.

meiraleal
0 replies
2h54m

It's fascinating how precise this math is tho.

30 years ago, Microsoft matketcap was around the same 20bi. Today it's 3T.

It would totally make sense for it to happen again.

etaioinshrdlu
2 replies
16h4m

One part really jumped out at me:

    Thus only a very small number of companies (currently TSMC, Samsung, and Intel) attempt to operate leading-edge nodes, and the industry has shifted to a “fabless” model where companies like Apple and Nvidia design their chips but have them manufactured by “foundries” like TSMC. By pooling the orders of many different chip companies, the foundries can achieve the scale necessary to afford cutting edge fabs.
I wonder if AI training will end up being similar in the long-term (it's already partially true today).

langsoul-com
1 replies
9h38m

It is already true. The cost of training gpt jumped exponentially per model, in the realm of millions upon millions.

There's a good reason why the latest gpt-4 competitor is meta or Google.

everybodyknows
0 replies
21m

ChatGPT-4 shows a certain awareness of its own training investment: If asked, it will say it "contains data up to December 2023".

rmu09
1 replies
8h54m

The stated tolerances of typical manufacturing processes seem to be off by at least an order of magnitude. Not that it does make sense to give a tolerance number without some magnitude it applies to, nonetheless, 0.125mm stated tolerance of CNC machining is ridiculous.

adrian_b
0 replies
4h32m

Off in what direction?

A tolerance of 1/8 millimeter (5 mils) can certainly be achieved by CNC machining, but not always by the cheapest tools.

You mean that it is easy to achieve much smaller tolerances than this by CNC machining?

Googling for "CNC machining tolerances" finds at first hit a guide that says "For CNC machining, the standard tolerance limit is set around +/-.005” (0.127 mm)."

The next hits show the same 5 mils standard tolerance, but they also mention the availability of better tolerances, like 2 mils or even less, but at higher costs and subject to various constraints on the features to which they are applicable.

So it appears that the tolerance written in the article is indeed typical, as claimed.

schmorptron
0 replies
18h24m

we can collaborate on this, you handle step 1, i'll do step 2?

11thEarlOfMar
1 replies
4h9m

For comparison, the cost to build the World Trade Center was $2 Billion.

BTW, having spent 35 years in the semiconductor industry, this is the best 'layman's' description of what goes into chip fabrication I have seen. A perfect blend of description and illustration without over simplifying.

simonbarker87
0 replies
4h7m

I was thinking the same. My PhD was in SiC adjacent stuff and tbh I could have done with this explainer back then to get me up to speed.

rossant
0 replies
9h33m

Excellent and fascinating article. I knew semiconductor fabs were incredibly complex but this article still blew my mind.

jc_811
0 replies
10h33m

What a fascinating article. It truly blows my mind just how advanced humans have become. When playing angry birds on an iPhone we tend to forget the insane amount of research, resources, and specialized expertise that has made all the modern tech world possible.

I’d also highly recommend the book Chip Wars by Chris Miller for anyone looking for a deeper dive into the history and current dilemmas of the semiconductor industry

imperialdrive
0 replies
22h28m

Absolutely fascinating, thank you for sharing! I just want to order new phones computers laptops and servers left and right now.

genericone
0 replies
13h5m

First, attempt to build a $10 billion dollar fab.

fisheuler
0 replies
7h1m

CHM(computer history museum) have conducted an oral history interview with TSMC found Morris Chang in 2007. Chang told his personal Odyssey in this interview, from inner China to Taiwan, studying and working at US, PhD application refused by MIT, but luckily he choose a fast rocket track in the industry, after he accumulated enough wealth, industry insight, connections etc... He returned to Taiwan to found TMSC, else is the story. Also he compared Asian and American engineering styles:

"I think the Asian engineers tend to be more methodical, they tend to be more studious, more orderly engineers; whereas, the U.S. engineers tend to be more innovative, but they tend not to be as methodical and orderly as the Asian engineers. ......

On the other hand, I also think that one group can accompany another group, you know. You can have an innovative group but not so methodical and so on, and then you can have a methodical group maybe not very innovative accompanying each other. "

https://archive.computerhistory.org/resources/access/text/20...

deanmen
0 replies
20h55m

V