I suspect Caesar's dropped DEF CON because the DEF CON attendees likely have a fairly low "avg revenue per attendee" yield because fewer of them gamble compared to the avg Vegas conference attendee. They also probably spend less on high-end restaurant dining and bar drinking inside the hotel.
Since the pandemic Vegas has had a pretty strong resurgence in general and this may be a sign that Caesar's is doing well enough they've decided there are higher-revenue guests they can put in those rooms — even in the doldrums of August (a traditionally slow month for Vegas tourism).
I happen to regularly attend an unrelated, non-tech conference that's always right around the same week as DEF CON. That conference also happens to attract attendees who don't gamble or spend much at the hotel other than room costs. The reason the conference organizer chooses August is they get better discounts on their costs from the hotel in exchange for filling up rooms that would otherwise be empty (except this hotel is lower-end and cheaper than Caesar's). This works out because unlike Caesar's this hotel is far off the strip and doesn't have nearly as much dining or gambling revenue potential anyway.
Or they figured they're somehow net negative when they do gamble :D
There are certainly a lot of DefCon attendees who think that this describes them. In my observation they are all very incorrect, usually humorously so fortunately.
Vegas makes a fuckload of money off everyone who thinks they’re smart but doesn’t understand statistics
There are only two types of people: those that believe they can outsmart the house, and those that never gamble.
And card counters.
Do they still exist? They have closed most of the gaps previously exploited by card counters, and continuous shufflers are everywhere.
I think the only ones who can make money are those playing poker and are really good at it. That's because they are playing against other players and not the bank. They still have to beat the rake.
I'm not even sure comp players, that is those who play to get non-cash rewards like travels, restaurant and hotel stays while minimizing their losses can still have an advantage. I heard that casinos calculate comps by expected losses, making sure they stay on top (statistically).
And they are cheaters, but it is like saying thieves can make money.
Absolutely not. Using your brains to keep track of cards is not cheating in any way, shape or form. They are simply using all the available information and some pretty basic math to them to gain an advantage.
Calling card counters cheaters is like calling chess players with better knowledge of patterns than their opponents cheaters. They are not cheaters.
The post you are responding to addressed card counters at the top, claiming the casinos have closed most of the loopholes that enabled card counting to be profitable.
The cheating it mentions at the bottom is not card counting (technically legal), but genuine cheating.
Card counting isn't cheating, it's how you play card games.
Until the houses realises and chucks you out.
Card counting is cheating. Thinking before playing is cheating. Also, knowing the rules of the game is cheating. You should only play at random and never ever think
They do, and some even document it on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@stevenbridges/videos Can recommend his videos, quite interesting and nice insights into casino procedures.
Not sure if casinos still bend rules/give special deals to high rollers but it sure worked out for this guy:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/04/the-man...
If that was true, the house wouldn't throw people out for suspected card counting.
If they threw you out, you clearly didn't outsmart them.
You don't always get thrown out. Part of the game is monitoring the atmosphere on the floor and behave accordingly in order to not get thrown out.
Even if you do get thrown out it is already after you have won some money thanks to your edge and therefore 'outsmarted' them.
Not really, no card counter goes unnoticed forever. It's about making sure you get enough time to play when the count is high that you manage to earn money. If you're curious about the life of card counters I can't recommend this YouTube channel enough: https://www.youtube.com/stevenbridges
Aka "we don't want you here because you might win".
A strange game; the only winning move is not to play.
Well, there are occasionally a few other legal options.. https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/loss-rebate/
Also a couple of video poker variants have actual positive (!) returns with perfect play. https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/basics/#playing-s...
That's deffinately not true, I used to go to the casino under no illusion I'd come out poorer. I'd just do it because it was fun.
And then there's David Walsh and his syndicate
Not just statistic. There are plenty of smart defcon people who understand statistics but don't understand that if you start winning they'll just kick you out.
I am very doubtful. Outside sports betting (where you can actually outsmart the house) we loved winning players when I worked in online gambling. Winning players are much more likely to return and lose more than they ever won.
How did you handle winning sports betters? Did you decline to take their bets, cap their bet size or just move the line to compensate?
You ban them off your platform when they win.
They don't kick you out for being lucky.
The only reason to kick you out would be if they believed you somehow have an edge on them.
The customer who got lucky at first and is willing to try to be lucky again and again is the best customer for the casinos.
Not sure that's true, actually. The usual strategy appears to be to comp the gambler with generous stays at the casino they're a patron of, with the expectation that they'll dump their winnings back in the next day.
Taken with a grain of salt, as my only knowledge of this is via Hollywood movies. It does make sense from a game theory perspective though.
They probably make quite a lot off people who think they understand statistics as well.
I'd be willing to be that the intersection of people who think this and then choose to engage in gambling anyway, is probably one of the highest grossing demographics that exist.
If true, we'll eventually see casinos sponsoring statistics MOOCs or other forms of relevant education.
Or people who understand the statistics but find it to be fun and do it anyways
My first thought was that GP was saying DefCon attendees would be counting cards, which is an effective and legal way to beat the house[1] (until you're caught and banned from the casino).
1. https://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/nightlife/2016/04/...
'legal' has no meaning here when it's against every single casino policy in the world.
Uh, yes, it does?
There’s a huge difference between: “if you do X, you will be asked to leave” and “if you do X, the police will arrest you”
Like, when I invite someone over to a dinner party, it is against my policy to insult my dog. If you do that I will kick you out (not actually, he’s a dumb klutz, you can insult him all you want), but that doesn’t make it illegal to insult my dog.
True but not relevant. Police and legality do not need to be involved with certain kinds of casino justice. Security may just offer to beat your ass if you won't cease and desist, avoiding the paperwork. Could be bluff but they know where cameras are and have cop friends..
You need to check a calendar and see the current year - the days of Casinos' roughing up card counters is long long long gone. Might be great for your screenplay or fan fiction but doesn't match reality.
Strange that you can be so confident about this with private security when even actual police are sometimes involved in cases of excessive force, corruption, coverups. Besides, whatever your personal knowledge/experience is it can't be vast enough to prove a negative here, and only one counter example is needed.
Regardless of the year I think you might want to reconsider your overly confident notions about fiction/reality or at least the condescending tone. I don't know what is institutionalized in what places, but have been threatened by casino security. Fuck around and find out I guess
From where I stand, you'd need to show it's systematic. One single instance is not enough for me. Because your claims are general, as if they applied to many casinos.
Caesars has a $9.3B market cap. They're not beating anybody up for "casino justice".
To be clear, if they tell you to stop playing, and you don’t, then they absolutely can call the police for trespassing, which is a crime.
I don’t think most casinos have private security that will beat you any more, since they can tell you to stop playing and enforce that with police.
As I understand, in Las Vegas, as long as you do not use a device to aid with card counting (mind/mental only), it is legal. Is that still true?
Sure, it's "legal"—but so is them banning you from playing blackjack or tresspassing you from their property.
Great point. Thank you to clarify. Casinos in Las Vegas are private. They have the right to ask anyone to leave for any reason.
Winning is against casino policy too but that doesnt stop people trying.
Casinos in Vegas use too many decks and reshuffle frequently enough that there is no edge gained over the house when card counting.
This is not true. Besides continuous shuffler machines, most casinos have 6 or 8 deck games that have plenty of 'penetration' (card counter term for depth into the deck that the cut card is placed) to offer an edge if you properly card count. There's also a big game to be played where rubes think they can card count and instead lose tons of money attempting to do so.
The problem with card counting generally is that the casino has infinite money and never runs out, thereby they can sustain large expected value swings... whereas you need an enormous bankroll to handle those swings, assuming they don't throw you out before that happens.
The book "Bringing Down the House" by Ben Mezrich explains in layman's terms how card counting works for blackjack.
There's plenty of doubledeck blackjack with good penetration in Vegas, especially in high limits rooms. The problem nowadays is that the casinos are also counting, and the patterns are simple and easy to track with the tech we all have. Changing your bet even a couple times based on the count can have the pit boss getting a call to remove you.
Statistically, it is not effective. Your card counting needs to be (basically) perfect, and you need very deep pockets to handle extended drawdowns.
Doubtful, I'm sure it's related to the constant attacks against their infrastructure they must defend against (let's be honest, I'm sure Caesars is not defending successfully). The juice just ain't worth the squeeze. They have a business to run, and the risk of having a bunch of drunken and high hackers who happen to be the best in the world running amuck is not their idea of a good corporate event.
Caesar's apparently explicitly said it wasn't related to anything the community did. It's possible that they're lying for some reason, but it's also possible that they're telling the truth.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Defcon/comments/1aj6ixn/def_con_was...
To avoid any legal liability. Stating a specific reason would open them to possible "breach of contract" depending on whether the act(s) were significant enough or justifiable, based on the contract terms. Just say nothing, part amicably, everyone moves on without drama.
With that said, they probably weren't lying. Most likely, months after ponying up $10 million to a sophisticated international hacking group, Caesars Entertainment probably doesn't want to invite some of the world's best hackers to stay and meet at its flagship resort.
Most Def con visitors would be white hats so that would be a bit disingenious. I would expect most attendees to behave (reporting issues after finding one)
Especially considering they just got hacked, a few pentests would be good for their business.
you say that like a person informed enough to know what a white hat is lol. Let’s be real here, even the ethical hacker bunch can look VERY wonky and rowdy to an outsider, especially if you are as far removed as the hospitality industry. The only time they had to deal with hackers in the recent past was decidedly painful for them
If they hadn't hosted Def Con for the last 20 years I'd agree, but this community certainly isn't new to them.
being ambivalent towards a group, filling up your hotel, but otherwise alien to you, may be a little less polarizing than just having been forced to shell out $100M to a similar sounding demographic.
Def Con has 30,000 attendees. And maybe 99% of them aren't assholes.
But in such a large group, there's always going to be some people who'll decide to muck around with their hotel room's locks or something like that.
Primarily, it's about public image. It would look idiotic to host this group, regardless of intention. And it's about insurance -- logical or not, their insurer probably insisted they quit inviting DEF CON and associating, in any capacity, with self-identified hackers.
This is how it works for at-will employment, but it would be a very weird contract that allows backing out only if you don't say why you're backing out.
Let's say Caesars states, "we just got hacked and, as has been reported in every major newspaper, paid $10 million as ransom. We have reason to believe one or more attendees of DEF CON were part of that group."
How does making this statement this benefit Caesars in any way? Now DEF CON can demand some proof of this claim, or sue for defamation, or state that without proof, Caesars isn't acting in good faith, whatever.
I mean, attendees of DEFCON can hack Caesars even if someone else owns the projectors used for the Powerpoint presentations.
Yes, most likely. That's why it would make zero sense for Caesars to state anything publicly that would antagonize members of the community. Saying nothing (or even praising DEF CON, and claiming it was a "change in strategy") is the smarter route.
If there's any place in the private sector where I'd expect security (including digital security) to be literally top notch, a casino would be it.
And casinos don't fuck around. If they catch some "uber haxor" laying a finger on their networks, you can bet they'd have him arrested in a heartbeat, regardless of whether he is a conference attendee or not.
I know why you'd expect that, regardless, you'd be very wrong
Which private sector businesses would you say have top notch security?
Ummm, they did get hacked and held for ransom (paid millions) and lost untold millions more in revenue just recently.
You're getting flamed by accounts below but they're largely wrong.
Most casinos rent their gaming equipment from IGT, who directly manage most of these systems. IGT also has a fairly robust security team, having worked with them back when I was still a PM in the space.
Organizations like Caesar's aren't the greatest security wise, but that's largely because they have low margins because they are primarily property holding companies that are operating Casino/Gaming that they rent out from vendors like IGT.
This has been changing after MGM, but I don't think I can discuss it deeply.
Last year was pretty bad for digital security in Vegas
There are actually very few people with pentesting skills at Defcon stronger than running burp suite, and fewer still of those that are blackhats. Those with skill can do very well for themselves legally, and know better than to risk their careers getting caught messing with casino systems.
In practice the biggest abuse from Defcon to the venues is in the form of a subset of people constantly defacing casino property which no one reports because no one has sympathy for casinos.
My favorite trolling of casinos at Defcon is the people dumping prop money everywhere. Casinos do not -like- that and spend a lot of resources running around picking them up which is funny to watch.
Not sure I agree with the idea there are very few world class hackers there. I've watched a few of the capture the flags and almost immediately they went over my head and I felt inadequate. lol.
I'd argue that the CTF competitors are a minority in attendance (but that doesn't mean they are none at DEFCON).
The people you see on stage and competing in the CTFs are like 0.1% of the attendees.
Dunno if it has anything to do with it but they did get haxx0red last year at the same time as MGM, except Caesars paid up and MGM didn't. Hotel room cards, casino play cards, etc were down for ten days at a bunch of the MGM-owned properties (a.k.a. the half of the Strip not owned by Caesars) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM_Resorts_International#Las_...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-13/caesars-e...
https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/9/15/23875113/mgm-hack-c...
Seems mildly plausible for a connection.
About a month after the conference would be enough time to discredit an obvious connection to the conference, while still making use of security breaches that might have been found during the conference. Most security experts know you have to abandon security hopes if you give the hardware to the user with direct access. And with a conference of DEF CON's size, you only need 1% malicious actors for 300 tragedy of the commons results.
MGM's not that far away on the strip for somebody to find a security exploit, and then start checking every nearby casino to see if it works at those casinos. Found a $1 million exploit? Might walk a few blocks to see if it can turn into a $10 million exploit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oM7-Jsa168&t=111s
Wouldn’t you think that canceling and angering that community would be an even worse idea then?
I doubt they would cancel a contract already in place for that reason.
Not renew the contract - sure. But canceling an already scheduled event because of low revenue per guest doesn't seem very likely to me?
Or maybe it was some sort of ongoing agreement and canceling it was effectively "not renewing".
Not to be TOO snarky, but given how quickly corporate cancels employee labor despite rising revenue, it would not surprise me for other corporate to also cancel "low paying customers" for "high paying customers". Loyalty is beyond dead so cancelling a contract is just a cost of business if they feel the alternative gives more money.
At least going by all the entrepreneurship articles I've read over the decade, "firing your customers" is a term of art, and a recommended approach for dealing with unprofitable and/or annoying customers - so I guess this shouldn't be surprising.
Not to be TOO snarky, but that's kind of the point of contracts - contract cancellation terms aren't an "or else..." threat, but rather an agreed upon exit strategy. Termination fines aren't punishment, they're compensation for inconvenience.
Repeating this verbatim in your reply means you are trying to be pretty snarky, fyi.
I mean they were both being intentionally snarky. The second snarky comment was used in a mocking tone because the first comment didnt seem to have much empirical evidence to support it
Not to be TOO snarky, but given how quickly corporate cancels employee labor despite rising revenue, it would not surprise me for other corporate to also cancel "low paying customers" for "high paying customers". Loyalty is beyond dead so cancelling a contract is just a cost of business if they feel the alternative gives more money.
If they canceled a year or so before the con, I could see that. But to cancel seven month before the conference? There's no way they will get a decent-sized substitute in the space before then, so I don't see how this would be anything but a money-loser. Not to mention other conferences might be less willing to commit to long-term deals if they see that the contract can be canceled on a whim.
I will need to dig up the archives from DC 27 when the deal with Caesars forum was officially announced, but if memory serves me correctly DT said it was a 5 or 10 year contract. So unless there was some verbaige in the contract that allows Caesars to cancel for any reason, they're going to be cutting DEFCON a check.
A 5-year contract starting at DC 27 would hold thru DC 31, so DC 32 fits the "not renewing" hypothesis.
Who knows? But a more likely hypothesis is that the organizers were betting that they could come to terms on a renewal and at the end of the day they couldn't.
There was some announcement at the closing talks last year of the same venue being booked for the next 2-3 cons I think.
Everyone is missing "but now held at the Las Vegas Convention Center (LVCC) with workshops and training at the Sahara" part. So this more like they got passed to a different venue. Not "vegas hates them".
The post says they had to do significant work to secure another venue. While it's possible the author could be lying there is no evidence of this so we must, at this point, take them at their word.
Arranging a convention site contract is always a lot of work, even if (hypothetically) the Caesar's rep suggested that they try LVCC.
The convention has been in Las Vegas for decades so I suspect they know ALL the options anyway.
The announcement effectively calls it "no-notice cancellation" and overall it reads like they were already deep in the planning phase when it happened, which seems unlikely if a renewal was pending.
Its odd though - i would assume a conference of this size would have penalties in the contract if the venue decides to pull out without cause or sufficient notice.
To a point yeah but the venue also has the power not to sign the contract in the first place (ime the venue is the side typically negotiating from the position of power) if they think the penalties are too high on their end.
In all likelihood they ran the math and figured it was worth it to yank the rug out from under Defcon, penalties be damned.
I see people go all out in LV and drop a lot of money at restaurants. I guess it depends. Then again if you've already been in LV for a few days due to BH you might be over the bell curve on spending for the week. I guess it depends on when you get in. I tend to drop more money Wed-Thur.
I attended an earlier DEF CON (5 or 6?) where the attendees:
and that is only what I witnessed firsthand. I can only imagine what else went on. Maybe the attendees low spend was only part of the equation?Among some other really cringey behaviors.
I've seen bottles of alcohol passed around doing talks and heard more than a few really off color jokes about criminal sex acts and such. Vegas waitresses have seen it all also but there was over the top behavior.
We're in a victim dominant culture now, "it's not you or what you've done, you're just a victim of evil or something" but at more than a few Def Cons and more than a few times, it was really uncomfortable to be there and see some of the stuff that was happening.
Yes, counter-culture is counter-culture. It was meant to make normals uncomfy.
Guess what? Hotels are run by normals.
And they are perfectly fine with the crowd. I've chatted with many hotel staff and almost all of them are happy with the DC crowd. Generally tips well and are polite even when drunk, some assholes, but thats normal with any crowd.
Worst case scenario is usually they tell people to disperse, but otherwise, they always seemed to laugh when they saw shenanigans (except for people fucking with Casino machines, thats a fast way to make them mad)
Defcon was always a very boozy conference. It's not a professional event. It's Burning Man for high school AV clubs.
Other than the first item, this does not seem especially extreme by Vegas standards.
You don't think breaking into a secured area and removing expensive hardware from the roof is extreme?
Removing expensive hardware is crossing a line but a lot of people break into secured areas a lot.
Remember, this is the Las Vegas strip. The frame of reference for normal is a bit different.
Sounds pretty fun. Maybe not if you are an organizer though.
I attended Def Con 7 and witnessed people pick the lock of a utility room on my hotel floor and change the phone wiring.
Also, I was a 17 year old girl at the time, and I felt sexually threatened several times during the event. That is the only place I have visited where I would make a statement of that nature.
I was at DEF CON 26 & 27 and people had punched/torn holes in the drywall in several places, and at one stairwell where you could reach up and slap the ceiling, chunks of ceiling were falling off from where people were gouging it.
DEF CON is a hell of a party, and I hope to go this year, but the attendees are a force to be reckoned with. Even I ended up fucking up a homemade badge, and tossing a failing lithium battery into the trash in the middle of a casino, only to learn later I created a trash fire, so I know firsthand that we're a problematic bunch.
There are still shenanigans, but all of the wildness has calmed down -- both via goon enforcement and casino staff knowledge.
For example, the ATMs on casino floors are probably some of the most secure in the nation during the con. Harassment is also taken actually seriously.
That sounds like DefCon 7 at the Alexis Park. I think I remember seeing a photo of a golf cart in the pool.
I quit going after 7. It seemed like they partying had vastly I overtaken any actual technical content. I don't drink and I'm not super social, so it just seemed like it wasn't "for me" anymore.
Edit: It has probably changed in the intervening years but every time I looked into it it seemed like more spectacle than tech. DerbyCon filled the niche for me for a few years but then it got impossible to get tickets for and imploded. (I know there's a lot of backstory about DerbyCon that I don't know, too. For me it was just a fun way to feel a little of the DefCon 3 vibes again.)
Gambling isn’t the big margin for the casino and hackers aren’t immune to gambling. Most people who gamble know the odds aren’t in their favor.
You can view their financial statements [1]. I am sure the 'casino' category includes things besides gambling, but it looks like the largest share of their revenue.
[1] https://investor.caesars.com/news-releases/news-release-deta...
Be sure to subtract expenses. So for 2022 you have 2500 for casino, 500 for food, 1500 for hotel, 800 for "other." And there's definitely some counterintuitive accounting going on there, because that 2500 would imply a profit margin of 41% on casino, but Vegas regulations require gaming machines to pay out at least 75%, leaving a profit margin max of 25%. The card games and other games of skill wouldn't have such restrictions, but it seems pretty difficult to imagine that they'd be high enough margin to result an overall of 41%.
You seem to misunderstand the 75% rate:
The requirement is that the expected value for a play on a machine is >75%. And most are >90%. But that’s not a cap on profit margin, as 25% of the expense for a play may be more than the cost of that play.
Eg, having a machine that costs $1 with $0.75 expected return (and $0.25 revenue for the casino) may only cost the casino $0.10 a play — which would be a 60% profit margin.
Expected return on a machine and profit margin on that machine are literally identical. Imagine there's a hypothetical $1 machine where we simply remove variance. So you insert $1 and you get $0.75 back. It should be clear that for each $1 of revenue, the casino profits $0.25. This is a 25% profit margin. Variance can add some noise, but does not change the long-term expectation, which is what the regulations are based on.
That sounds intuitive, but that's just not how revenue is defined for a business like a casino. The casino had $0.25 revenue, and its profit is whatever is left from the $0.25 after paying for heat, light, maintenance, cashiers, security, etc.
Other businesses are treated like this too. If you are a high frequency trading firm and you buy 1000 shares stock for $99.99 each and sell for $100, you didn't have $100k of revenue - you had $10, and your profit is what's left after paying for staff and computers.
Yes, if your business was a supermarket, it would indeed work the other way, and it's not obvious to the literal- minded where one treatment should stop and the other should start.
This is similar to not counting bank deposits as revenue and withdrawals as costs. Only when your money goes to pay fees is it booked as bank revenue. The same for money transmitters like Western Union.
And perhaps is more obvious when you consider what happens when there’s only players, eg, poker. The pot is held in trust, until the game ends and the losers forfeit their money to the winner. At no point does it belong to the casino.
That doesn’t change when the casino is also a player.
Yip, I agree. I'm aware of gross gaming revenue and was involved in the industry in a past life, though obviously never filing as a casino. The thing that misled me, at a glance, was their costs - $3.5 billion. I wasn't aware there'd been massive consolidation in the casino industry, and thought I was looking at a casino's costs/revenue (in which $3.5 billion would be insane without it including losses), not a sprawling corporate enterprise.
Look at it a different way. The casino never had that dollar, you inserted a quarter and they gave you light show that cost them a cent to put on. You enjoyed it so much, you did it four times.
Now the casino has your dollar and it's "costs" were four cents in electricity/maintenance. A much higher profit tham 25%.
You don't understand casino accounting. Gaming WIN is revenue. If you put $100 in and get $75 out, that's $25 in marginal revenue with zero corresponding costs. The $100 is a statistic that the casino records, but it does not factor into profit calculations (total, or margin).
Gaming does have expenses -- labor (mostly dealers and slot attendants & mechanics), costs of purchasing and leasing the machines, and some other miscellaneous stuff... but profit margins on pure gaming are very high (and not limited in any way by the 25% maximum hold percentage that you reference)
Except that you have expenses, like rent for the machine, maintenance for the machine and building, energy costs, staff salaries, cleaning costs, security and IT spend, etc. etc.
So no, profit is more like gross revenue minus expenses and taxes.
You could easily have a machine with positive EV for the house that has negative profit.
What's the big margin for the casino if not gambling?
What is the big margin? Rooms?
I heard a joke a tech conference people in Vegas many years ago. It goes something like "people who go to tech conferences in Vegas bring one shirt and a $20 bill and never change either." So yea, programmers generally aren't gamblers because they know enough math to know the house always wins.
In my experience, programmers like poker, but not games of chance. This also describes me. Poker is a data-heavy game of skill and memory, Craps is about the opposite.
I went with a bunch of CS/bioinformatics/MD IITians to Reno, NV once. They were just there to gamble on games of chance. Personally, I think gambling is boring and stupid if the expectation isn't significantly positive. I'd gamble if skill was the dominating factor and the expectation wasn't so abysmal.
You would like Poker. I mostly play with friends for chips, but it still takes concentration and memory. Excellent game.
If it was skill based, you'd be competing against a pro who does nothing else. At least with chance you have a chance :)
If skill is the dominating factor, almost by definition it isn’t gambling. This is what allows bars and other institutions not licensed as gambling centers to host poker games. (which might be of interest to you)
In my experience, potential gambling addiction has nothing to do with rationality or smartness.
I’d broaden that to addiction generally.
Craps is not the opposite. Quite the opposite, actually.
The magnitude of entropy casinos require you inject into the system each round is quite low in practice.
Profiting off of that is all skill.
Most people appreciate the skill poker requires, but like me never want to bother learning it. If I (very rarely) go to casino I'd just play games of chance for a defined loss budget and just stop playing when I either lose it or win enough to get dinner for the group.
Eh, I’m a programmer and I go to vegas with other programmers fairly regularly. We know enough math to know the expected cost per entertainment•hour is comparable to many other pass-times.
But even so we’re actually all net-positive on the city, thanks to a couple “lucky” craps runs.
Came to make the same comment. Vegas is a fun place. We spend some money and get some fun just like anything else.
And same. A couple of roulette results has us “positive”.
House sets the mean and variance, how could they ever lose? Only thing left to make it work is volume, transactions volume, so variance can be minimized.
I'm not so sure. There's a _lot_ of drinking at DEF CON
It's mostly with liquor bought from offsite and drunk in rooms/private parties, not via Caesar's venues or catering (there's a lot of that too, and this is summer dead period, so it still may be good).
I can think of plenty of in-hotel bars packed with DEF CON attendees 24 hours a day during the conference.
The linq bar turned into a 24hr party after the bomb threat last year
A bomb threat last year? Hmmm, I wonder why Caesars chose not to renew the contract.
Yeah, I think those things are more likely to be the issue. Tech people tend not to be shy with racking up huge bar tabs.
I explicitly remember them tapping out every keg at a bar there by 2pm about 10 years ago.
All of the more recent years that I did DEF CON I was with large groups of people going to high end restaurants and (ab)using the hotel bars. In fact the hotel bars were always packed.
My suspicion is that Caesars is trying to do something like play with headcount. Late summer is not just a weak time for conferences but DEF CON needs a ton more space and a ton more human babysitting across that space than any other conference. You don't see EVO or BlackHat getting cancelled (same exactly time window) because they're pretty contained in one place.
My guess is that Caesars needs to staff up a little for DEF CON or that they may even be considering reducing staffing in late summer. Con attendees are going to stay at their properties and use their bars/restaurants/tables anyway.
...although now that I think about it, EVO was moved up 2 weeks and has a new unannounced venue this year, so maybe this isn't isolated to DEF CON. ...and also the Venetian is having its convention space renovated until 2026...
Black Hat is a giant commercial conference run by a company that runs dozens and dozens of giant commercial conferences. No event venue is ever going to fuck with them.
Also Black Hat brings a lot of more-corporate, less-hacker types, who are probably likely to have much higher spend, possibly more gambling, and certainly dining expenses covered.
IIRC EVO only moved because they outgrew the space/slot they'd been working in. The other reply to you outlines Black Hat.
I very much doubt there's any conspiracy here.
I wasn't suggesting there was?
Combine low ARPU with perceived risk (in the wake of the Vegas hacks last year) and a termination for convenience clause and this is a no brained for Caesars. There’s just not enough upside for Caesars to host in their marquee properties.
I never heard of this. Can you tell us more?
an good example from an us gov standard contract is here https://www.acquisition.gov/far/52.249-2
It's basically "a no harm, no faul" termination of an existing contract, and is fairly common in competitive markets where there is no long term strategic partnership to develop an unique product.
If it's the buyer terminating it's either because the product is either no longer needed or an cheaper supplier was found, and if it's the seller it's caused by all sorts of resource optimization reasons(aka someone being willing to pay more for the same limited resources, or an increase in cost making unprofitable).
im really sure you have found the answer, it’s most likely more of a perceived thing than any of us wants to admit. DEFCON attendees can be walking stereotypes at times anyways, but the combination of drunk, low yielding hacker(wo)men(tm) roaming your hotel probably just made the juice not worth the squeeze.
The simplest explanation is often the correct one. Casinos aren't exactly known for having moral qualms. They are, however, known for caring about their bottom line. They probably analyze every single event they host and then shuffle things around to maximize their expected revenue based on their past experiences with the same type of event.
Put another way, they got a better offer
That’s the weird part. I doubt they’re using the space so this strikes me as “think of the money we’ll save on hours” bean counting
Companies/Vendors usually host corporate conferences around this time as well.
A large company has probably decided to move a conference to Caesar's during that period, and that got Defcon bumped. Especially because DefCon has become massive, so the RoI has shrunk due to staffing overhead.
Not everything is about money or the bottom line. Sometimes it's about politics. Vegas takes a loss on so many things. Nevada has grown more and more corporate over the years. This move doesn't surprise me at all.
What are the politics? One of the richest and most profitable industries on Earth wants to have a conference where they show slide shows to each other. Really not much different than any other conference, and probably more ethical than most of them.
You make it sound like it's entirely about money and the bottom line.
I have a hard time believing gaming doesn't provide _huge_ contributions to favorable politicians. I feel like you've got something to say, and maybe something really interesting. But what you've got if awfully vague.
If you've got the time or inclination, I'd definitely read an elaboration of your meaning.
Is DEF CON a highly political thing?
The simplest explanation is they don’t like hackers after their experience. So they push a bunch of hackers buttons with a last minute notice and prepare the honey pot to pen test their post ransom security posture and maybe in the process they find an amateur to pin it all on.
Cool. Drop kick a hornets nest in a zorb ball. What could go wrong? Not everyone attending DEFCON is getting 6 figures to red team, I suspect.
You are not wrong. Plenty of the attendees really don’t like bullies. It may be interesting.
"I suspect Caesar's dropped DEF CON because the DEF CON attendees likely have a fairly low "avg revenue per attendee" yield because fewer of them gamble compared to the avg Vegas conference attendee."
There is the story that the American Physical Society was not allowed back after in 1986 Vegas supposedly suffered its worst week in history.
First of all there is no real evidence that this story is true and secondly it doesn't make sense to me that they would cancel DEF CON after so many years for that reason. They would have done so much earlier, probably.
https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/39668/did-a-cas...
I heard this story many times. One of them was froma graduate student who attended this meeting. APS March meeting happened in Las Vegas again last year (2023). While there was no official ban for APS Conferences, there was a little interest in las vegas to host anything for APS for a ~35 years.
It might be interesting to see what is happening in Caesars during the week DEFCON was supposed to happen.
ha ha this comment can be interpreted different ways given the audience we are talking about.
It may have happened to physicists in 1986, although the APS conference was back in Las Vegas in 2023
https://qz.com/work/1249513/was-a-convention-of-physicists-r... (2018)
I've heard stories about "hackers" at former DEF CON's pouring concrete down sinks and doing all sorts of other socially clueless vandalism, and resulting backlash for the organizers. While the infosec community is much bigger and more... "normal" than it was back then, I imagine the guests are still more of a liability than the average conference attendee and as you said, probably not big spenders.
So… see you at Magic Live?