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Show HN: Startup funding simulator

sjwhevvvvvsj
29 replies
23h48m

Bootstrapping a business with my savings to retain full control is both the wisest and hardest thing I’ve done.

I don’t understand why people are so quick to start giving up control out of the gate for software companies. Servers are cheap, it’s not like in say, manufacturing where you need a factory.

You’re gonna let some VC bro tell you what to do for a SaaS product? Why exactly? Just go to market on the cheap.

I’ve had every quarter profitable since founding, and never taken a dime in VC. I’m not going to be a billionaire, but that’s fine, I want to chart my own path.

codegeek
9 replies
23h32m

I run a bootstrapped business and I hear you. However, VC Funding can make sense for certain cases. I do think that too many people raise VC prematurely. The best path in my opinion is:

0-PMF/100 customers: Bootstrap it

PMF-Scale: VC Fund if you can show 100% growth each year and forward. If the market is big enough (TAM etc), This can become a billion dollar company and for this to happen fast enough, you will need funding. Also, the reason you need funding here is because it is very tough to scale a business slowly. Either you grow fast from here or die/stay average growth.

Again, like you said, nothing wrong with "chart my own path" but VC funding has its needs. It's just that most people try to raise funding way too early and hence cannot keep up with the growth requirements and eventually either die or sell/pivot for peanuts.

user_7832
8 replies
22h14m

PMF-Scale: VC Fund if you can show 100% growth each year and forward. If the market is big enough (TAM etc), This can become a billion dollar company and for this to happen fast enough, you will need funding. Also, the reason you need funding here is because it is very tough to scale a business slowly. Either you grow fast from here or die/stay average growth.

This makes sense, but I wonder how truly "necessary" funding is. I understand that funding very (relatively) quickly can help turn a "eating ramen for dinner" salary to a a-regular-job levels of salary which is very good. But is there a business risk to grow "organically"/through word of mouth? Assuming it is possible to grow the company only working part time (which is admittedly a very big assumption), bootstrapping sounds slightly better.

It's just that most people try to raise funding way too early and hence cannot keep up with the growth requirements and eventually either die or sell/pivot for peanuts.

Thanks, that's insightful!

codegeek
5 replies
21h13m

The thing with Funding is that you shouldn't really need it but it's more of a fuel when there already is fire (aka PMF). Once you have the fire (most people fail to get to this point anyway), then you decide if fueling that fire with VC dollars make sense or not for your goals.

The problem is that lot of entrepreneur need funding to even start because they don't have enough resources to start something (may be they need cash, people etc). But VC dont fund because you need cash. They fund because you are able to convince them somehow that you are building a unicorn.

user_7832
4 replies
20h32m

Thank you, that makes sense. Btw is PMF = product market fit in this context?

They fund because you are able to convince them somehow that you are building a unicorn.

I'm admittedly very naïve about this, but do they really expect this all the time? (Especially in physical and non-digital markets?) If you have a healthy growth and projection but no plans to say exceed 100M are you limited by how many VCs are interested?

romanhn
1 replies
20h21m

The big VCs typically will expect extreme growth, because the big wins are needed to make up for the losses they will incur on many of the their other portfolio companies. That said, there are smaller VCs and private equity firms who will be happy to fund companies with lesser aspirations. Just don't expect comparably big valuations and you'll likely need to cede more control for less money.

user_7832
0 replies
17h43m

Thanks!

codegeek
1 replies
19h42m

"do they really expect this all the time"

This is an interesting question. I don't know if they believe but they def want to believe because without unicorns, they won't survive as most startups fail or have mediocre returns which is not enough for VCs to justify to their own investors/LPs.

user_7832
0 replies
17h43m

Thank you, that makes sense.

romanhn
1 replies
22h6m

The business risk is that another company with more money and therefore resources will see your PMF and will move faster to capture the market.

user_7832
0 replies
20h28m

Thanks, that makes sense. I would imagine patents could help somewhat but from what I've learnt they're not cheap and can still only help so much.

jacquesm
8 replies
23h47m

It works as long as you don't have funded competition. Especially if they start giving away the thing that you charge for. Then you need to have deep pockets to wait it out.

user_7832
3 replies
22h38m

I presume this would not really apply to "mature" hardware markets with a large number of companies already present and selling?

jacquesm
2 replies
21h15m

Entering an established market as a start-up is a completely different ballgame than 'greenfield', both funding wise and how you need to tackle the whole problem.

user_7832
1 replies
20h29m

Thank you, do you have any recommendations for learning specifically for established markets? Eg books/podcasts etc

jacquesm
0 replies
18h56m

I'd seek out the founder of a company that did this and succeeded. Most don't!

sjwhevvvvvsj
3 replies
23h43m

Therein lies the rub, but if you are turning a small, but real profit, and you then need a cash infusion you’ll retain far more control if you already have proved you can make money.

jacquesm
2 replies
23h10m

Been there, done that and no, you're wrong. You won't find any investors if there is already a very well funded competitor that gives away the same product. They will spoil both the market and your funding chances. You can only get that funding before such an entity appears, afterwards it's a matter of patience until they inevitably self destruct.

sjwhevvvvvsj
1 replies
18h35m

I’ll keep that in mind. Thanks.

(Also, FWIW my revenue is diversified enough that I can weather some storms in one area or another.)

jacquesm
0 replies
18h28m

That last point is worth gold.

primitivesuave
6 replies
22h54m

Bootstrapping requires a rare breed of founder who is financially secure enough (or frugal enough) to manage life on a reduced salary, capable of building useful products on a budget, and willing to risk the missed opportunity cost of a cushy Big Co position. In my experience, the hardest thing to master is the actual building - plenty of people are bootstrapping "theoretically useful" inventions in basements/garages/etc, that don't solve actual problems. Such people can really benefit from VC oversight and business acumen.

user_7832
2 replies
22h35m

Such people can really benefit from VC oversight and business acumen.

Would it not be financially more prudent to hire/consult experts, particularly if you can get access to a startup/accelerator program? Even without easy access, there is no dilution of ownership.

jimnotgym
1 replies
22h6m

It is not easy to hire/consult that level of person though. They are too busy being VCs

user_7832
0 replies
20h28m

Thank you, that makes sense.

mlhpdx
2 replies
20h46m

I don’t know that it’s really that rare. I look around and I see people with the fiscal responsibility, knowledge and ability to get things done in every quarter.

danjac
1 replies
8h35m

Depends on your circle. Most of my peers have families and mortgages, and don't have inherited wealth or sufficient savings. They are fiscally responsible but bootstrapping a company requires more resources than just being sensible with your money.

mlhpdx
0 replies
46m

Absolutely right. My point is just that it isn’t that people couldn’t, but that they can’t. The former meaning that people generally do have the needed skills, the latter meaning they don’t have the opportunity.

lobsterthief
1 replies
23h46m

This also assumes you have the skills required to get your business to the point where it’s self-sustaining.

sjwhevvvvvsj
0 replies
23h44m

If you don’t maybe you shouldn't be starting a business in the first place.

The number of “zero interest rate” business that’s still need to be culled is too damn high.

echelon
0 replies
21h25m

Would you feel comfortable telling a VC-funded business about your market? Or having one find you?

It's a dark forest. They see you, they covet your traction, and then they raise to outmaneuver you.

You might win, but that's a tremendous amount of stress dealing with a better-capitalized foe.

elevenones
14 replies
23h46m

I sold my biz for 16B then went back and deleted the funding rounds and founders. I made 16B. I like this.

sdflhasjd
10 replies
23h16m

I somehow broke it, I got a $5 investment against a $998B valuation and then sold it for $199B to gain $1.9T of profit???

Edit: "You get $InfinityB" I think I won.

https://www.fundingsimulator.com/?data=EL%2BVcsg%3B%3BYou%2C...

blackmesaind
9 replies
22h46m

Why don't we use this hack IRL?

sdflhasjd
8 replies
22h26m

Probably the annoying taxman who takes 20% of your $infinity, which just so happens to also be $infinity.

gtirloni
4 replies
21h36m

Your infinity is larger though so it's all good.

blackmesaind
3 replies
20h20m

Not quite, anything subtracted from itself is zero. However, if you send me Infinity bitcoin, I will send you 10 Infinity bitcoin back (I am Expert Hacker).

lagadu
1 replies
11h56m

No, not all infinites are the same. For example uncountable infinites are all larger than countable ones.

blackmesaind
0 replies
2h57m

Bah, you could never convince me aleph numbers are real!

gtirloni
0 replies
18h44m
Aeolun
1 replies
17h34m

I think if someone takes 20% of your infinity you are still left with infinity?

latency-guy2
0 replies
16h9m

To be accurate, you're left with undefined. But not really, the taxer actually controls infinite, person paying the tax has to figure out how to divide their infinite up.

todd3834
0 replies
19h43m

Reminds me of Hilbert’s paradox of the Grand Hotel

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert%27s_paradox_of_the_Gra...

zikero
2 replies
23h46m

pre-tax though

baq
1 replies
23h44m

if you pay taxes you're winning

if you have to pay taxes but don't have cash to do it, you're losing. fix something

withinboredom
0 replies
20h25m

Or hire better accountants. No, I’m not talking about the creative kind, but the kind that tell you “hey, your cash reserves are projected to be too low” kind.

If your accountants are telling you when it’s too late; you are losing. Hard.

risenshinetech
12 replies
20h49m

This is a calculator, not a simulator. What exactly are you simulating? This takes a number of fixed inputs and produces a fixed output over some very coarse, manually controlled time steps.

It's like saying using a calculator to add up the last few months of income/expenses is a "financial simulator".

urbandw311er
6 replies
20h32m

This seems like a rather pedantic objection in my opinion. “Simulation” here likely refers to a potential scenario such as a raise or an exit, or even an entire hypothetical venture.

Solvency
4 replies
20h1m

Not really pedantic to me. Am I the only one here old enough to remember "Drug Wars" on the Ti calculators? That was an actual sim game. This is not that.

pvg
2 replies
18h30m

Pedantry can be perfectly accurate and still be pedantry.

Sohcahtoa82
1 replies
39m

It usually is.

But oh man it's lovely when someone is pedantic and wrong.

pvg
0 replies
8m

Yes but 'it's a not a simulation' is both right and pedantic (it's not of material importance to the thing being showhn) and 'that's not actually pedantic' is, to my lights, pedantic and wrong! So by my (possibly pedantic) interpretation, I get the satisfaction of both.

its-summertime
0 replies
19h21m

https://www.geekhideout.com/druglord2.shtml "modern" version.

I feel many would object to "simulator" being applied to something that doesn't represent a pre-existing thing with any faithfulness, however.

not_the_fda
0 replies
5h27m

If it were a "simulation" it would take into account that 99% of startups go to zero.

madacol
0 replies
19h13m

I disagree, The UI feels more like a simulation, you have an initial position (100% equity) and you start adding events sequentially, and you can see the partial results after each event that you have added.

Sure, you could have done the same thing in a spreadsheet, but I think the UI is what differentiates a simulation from a calculator

layer8
0 replies
18h41m

Yeah, I was expecting something like Universal Paperclips. ;)

joshelgar
0 replies
20h25m

What was the point of you being pedantic? It simulates what happens in different scenarios.

jimmydddd
0 replies
20h27m

I'd say it's more like adding up future months' income/expenses where the future months' income/expenses can be changed based on different projected scenarios, thus simulating those different scanarios.

LeonB
0 replies
19h7m

It is both!

Yes there are some common simulator features that it doesn’t have (there’s no ‘prediction’ or randomness involved) but that doesn’t mean it’s not in the category of simulation.

It helps simulate, or model, specific scenarios. Lawyering about words is unwarranted.

“All models are wrong some models are useful.” This is a very primitive model but from the comments here I can see that some people find it useful, so that’s a win.

Draiken
9 replies
23h38m

I'd love more help bubbles, since I'm not familiar with a ton of these toggles and boxes.

I'd also love to see how much employees would get, not just me. I know people generally care more about themselves, but seeing how it would work if you gave a lot more to employees would be great.

mlhpdx
8 replies
21h2m

Agreed. Adding the employee point of view would make this tool an excellent education piece. It’s always a struggle to explain.

leetrout
7 replies
14h9m

Or, no snark, open their eyes to how little their options are worth.

mdekkers
3 replies
12h29m

I never count options as renumeration. Startups and scaleups may as well promise to pay me with lottery tickets. Cash please, thank you. If you want to talk about using equity to pay me, please come with real shares, and a say in how the business is run, at least in the areas where I have experience and expertise.

amne
2 replies
8h35m

You only accept equity as the only pay if you believe in your friend's product and can take the hit when it doesn't work out. Everywhere else I've seen actual cash + options which is a way of saying "we'll pay you for a while and if this works out your options will be your reward for sticking around".

Draiken
1 replies
8h3m

we'll pay you for a while and if this works out your options will be your reward for sticking around

If it was at least as you describe, that'd be one thing, but not even that is guaranteed. At the time an exit event actually does happen, you might've been diluted out of existence.

I've personally been fucked out of shares once already. It's much, much worse than a lottery ticket. It's basically a dream.

cnity
0 replies
6h31m

I somehow was _immensely lucky_ to have joined a company that IPO'd shortly after joining. As a mid level engineer I sold my shares for literally $140,000 after tax, in total (as in, from selling all of my vested shares as they vested) despite not staying for all vesting rounds.

This being despite receiving a salary of only around $80-90k. I've never once considered shares to be something to depend on, but man can they be life-changing if you're in the right place at the right time.

dmurray
1 replies
10h6m

Are there any companies that share with the employees enough information to run this simulator?

My standard experience has been

-"This offer includes X,000 share/option units"

-"great, how much is that worth in dollars?"

-"well, we can't tell you, but there are Y00,000 shares in total, and the last investor paid $Z million for W% of the company".

"OK, that's very useful. If I assume my shares are as good as the investor's shares, I can estimate my shares' market value. Did the investor get anything else of economic value for his investment? A liquidation preference? Right to invest in future rounds? A board seat? Sweetheart deals with his favourite companies? "

- "Let me check that with Finance"... ... ... "I'm sorry but I can't tell you that"

- "OK, I understand that's confidential. Can I at least get the same deal as him? I'll trust you to give me my extra benefits when they accrue, and I waive the board seat and the backhand deals"

- "Absolutely not."

- "Well then, it's very hard for me to put a value on these shares/ options. Even though I'm willing to take some level of risk in my compensation, and value these close to market value, you won't give me enough information to let me value them at anything other than $0"

- "I've checked with $BIGWIG and actually we can make an exception in this case: we can offer you (X + 1),000 shares/ options. How does that sound? "

- "..."

not_the_fda
0 replies
5h30m

shares/options are worth the same as Shrute bucks.

Sohcahtoa82
0 replies
51m

It's confusing as hell.

I know what options are. I trade options on the public market frequently and make some beer money.

But when it comes to my stock options in the private startup I work at, I'm lost, mainly because the share price is shown as one of two numbers: Fair Market Value, and Issue Price.

Let's say I joined after a funding round where the company earned a $5B valuation. I'm given the option to buy 10,000 shares at $4/share, which is the "Fair Market Value" price. But the investors paid $16/share. How much are my shares actually worth? $4 or $16? I THINK the answer is actually "neither", since my shares have no liquidity without using a private equity trading firm like Forge. But is the $5B valuation determined from the FMV or the issue price?

But ignoring that, let's say we IPO with a $25B valuation. Ignoring dilution, if my shares were worth $4 before, they're now worth $20/share, and I've profited $160K. But if my shares were actually worth $16, they're now worth $80, for a profit of $800,000.

Which is it really?

teaearlgraycold
4 replies
23h50m

Looks great! Personally I’d make it so state changes don’t push history into the stack. Users don’t consider those inputs comparable to a page change. It’s more like typing into a form.

zikero
3 replies
23h43m

wanted to make any simulation shareable by copying the url. but you're right, there has to be a better way ...

teaearlgraycold
0 replies
23h39m

Share link in the corner is the way. Or just do a “replace” instead of “push” (using NextJS terminology)

s4i
0 replies
22h36m

history.replaceState (instead of history.pushState) is your friend.

methodical
0 replies
21h49m

As somebody else suggested just a share link would be a good way to allow sharing. Alternatively, for either a share link or as just a way to keep the state in the URL, I'd recommend B64 encoding the data as opposed to just directly escaping it. URLs have a maximum length (forgot off the top of my head, may be 1024 or something), so storing large stringified objects usually results in issues as opposed to just encoding it. It also makes for a more logical URL structure of fundingsimulator.com/{b64}. This is if you wanted to keep the URL as the single source of truth on the state, otherwise you could keep state internally which can be initialized by optional URL state (structured as stated before), and then just encode it and put it in a URL which is copied to clipboard when a share button is clicked.

mikikian
3 replies
23h18m

Great work! It would be cool if there was an option to "Exit / Sell the Startup" after a SAFE round i.e., before a priced round. This would simulate Jason Lemkin's one round scenario: https://www.saastr.com/venture-backed-theres-a-third-way-jus...

zikero
2 replies
23h8m

working on this one! thanks

hamburglar
0 replies
13h9m

An awesome addition to this would be to illustrate the effect of investor liquidation preferences during an exit. A graph of sale price vs your take would be really helpful for this since it’s nonlinear.

UI suggestion: allow click-drag on percentage boxes. I was tweaking percentages between 4 founders in order to come up with certain amounts post-round and it was a bit trial and error. On mobile it would have been tons easier if I could just nudge the values up and down rather than having to type them all in again.

echelon
0 replies
21h49m

Could you show hypothetical dilution at the SAFE level too? And continue to show it on the graph edges after a priced round?

It'd also be cool to see hypothetical valuation of equity on the line/edges too.

This is an awesome tool, btw! Thank you for putting it together!

mikewarot
3 replies
21h9m

I don't have a clue what a "safe" is... but I made 36 million dollars in 3 steps. I'm a happy camper.

tptacek
2 replies
20h43m

It's a standardized convertible note instrument, designed to replace convertible debt. Convertible notes are what you raise in a widely syndicated round before you have a firm valuation (ie, in your seed round). It's very easy to "sell" someone a convertible note, whereas an institutional priced round involves huge amounts of due diligence and legal fees. Convertible debt became the sort of default way seed rounds worked, but because they're technically debt they have maturity dates, which are logistical problems for founders; SAFE's just convert into equity directly.

Broadly syndicated convertible note seed rounds are a relatively new innovation; what preceded them was "friends and family" rounds of $50-100k followed immediately by an A round, which was a galactic pain in the ass for founders trying to get their companies up on their legs. A seed lets you confirm your hypothesis about PMF without doing board meetings.

The C.W. is that seed rounds today, no matter who's doing them, are done with SAFEs.

latchkey
1 replies
15h32m

Great explanation, also link to the documents: https://www.ycombinator.com/documents

unraveller
0 replies
4h6m

there is also a chatbot that has access to all the ycombi docs. it will explain SAFE like i'm five for you.

https://www.spryngtime.com/yc-demo

bagels
3 replies
21h12m

Was totally expecting this to be a snarky game.

jmknoll
2 replies
20h52m

Hahaha I’m glad I’m not the only one. I can’t find it now, but I’m sure I’ve seen a snarky PM game here on HN before. Thought it might be the sequel

von_lohengramm
1 replies
20h48m

I was expecting something similar to PhD Simulator: https://research.wmz.ninja/projects/phd/index.html

throwaway2037
0 replies
14h27m

+9000. I never saw this before. Thank you to share. It is the academic version of "Papers, Please"!

theyinwhy
2 replies
20h1m

Founders keep playing the investor's game with investors when they should play the founder's game with investors.

jagged-chisel
0 replies
19h41m

It’s about the power dynamics. Who comes calling first? The founder, needing money, or the investor wanting to invest?

The first caller wants something. The other has it. The founder can only play that game if the investor calls first.

gunapologist99
0 replies
19h39m

Please explain what this looks like?

parkaboy
2 replies
23h51m

I'm not sure if this feature request makes sense: also enabling having an option pool created at the SAFE round. I've had a situation where a lead investor requested an option pool created as part of a pre-seed round on SAFEs.

zikero
1 replies
23h46m

thanks for the suggestion! we had the same thing happen as well. although it's not very standard I think in the case of safes. a dirty way now would be to do "Resere/give options" before the safe.

parkaboy
0 replies
23h31m

Something like that would be awesome, thanks.

Luctia
2 replies
19h12m

Nice tool, but if your goal is to help people understand, some more information in the UI would be nice; I can click "add safe" - what does that mean?

rrr_oh_man
0 replies
17h48m

SAFE: Simple Agreement for Future Equity

TL;DR: A really simple funding contract.

Developed at YC, often used by YC companies. Investor gives money now and, in the future, gets a discount on the company's shares or pays a lower price when the startup does well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBUhQPPS9AY&t=15m35s

XCSme
0 replies
16h8m

I don't know any funding terms, so the UI is very confusing for me.

I don't understand what Val(post) is, what 10% options actually means (who gets the options?) what "Other pro-rata" means, etc.

HDogueto
2 replies
23h30m

I've literally abandoned my founding dream because of the complication and lack of visibility I was dealing with. This could have been a game changer for me! Keeps us updated with you work pls Ready to provide dev assistance

jacobsenscott
1 replies
18h25m

The complications are intentional. It doesn't need to be this way, but the job of a VC is to screw workers out of as much money as possible, as quickly as possible. Complex deals are one tool in the toolbox.

nahsra
0 replies
15h40m

This was certainly true in the past from my understanding of the history before my time.

Most terms are pretty standard now. And most of them have good reasons for existing — usually to align the founders and investors. Just because a term is complex and could benefit the investor doesn’t mean it’s meant to mislead.

But, I’m interested in some examples that might shake my opinion about up!

withinboredom
1 replies
20h21m

You need to add debt. For example, bridge loans. Or even “can we do this without selling equity”

tptacek
0 replies
17h5m

It's a tool for doing fundraising simulation exercises. If you're not doing startup fundraising, you're not the audience.

tills13
1 replies
23h0m

Cool and pretty but the dark beige text on the beige background is not sufficiently contrasty and difficult to read. Also, not sure if this is just a me issue but the text in general feels blurry.

yreg
0 replies
22h29m

While we are talking design: Since the site supports dark mode already, it could make use of prefers-color-scheme media query.

throwaw33333434
1 replies
4h32m

It breaks when you do a down round. (A for 50mln, exit for 10)

nkotov
0 replies
3h36m

Just like real life.

tantalor
1 replies
22h55m

Clicked a few buttons and got "You kept NaN% equity... You get $NaN"

That's a surprising result, and not very user friendly.

Some ideas to make it better:

- make it impossible to get into that state

- tell me what I did wrong so I can correct it

Etheryte
0 replies
22h7m

You get NaNthing.

jonshariat
1 replies
23h8m

Great tool but confused a bit. Is this a simulator or a calculator?

mastercheif
0 replies
5h39m

It’s a calculator.

blindriver
1 replies
15h55m

Breaks after Series G

teaearlgraycold
0 replies
15h47m

Realistic

troymiller1927
0 replies
10h39m

To see something new is great to move forward and learn new ways to improve ways of pay means of how we pay means of how we learn how to hire much more is involved and open to learn thanks for the opportunity to be part of this truly amazing

theobr
0 replies
19h21m

This is really dope and I've wanted something like it for at least 3 years now. Great work!

shafiemukhre
0 replies
10h22m

clean UI. Does anyone know want to share a good general rule of thumb when fundraising and how much equity percentage a founder should have? I want to give it a try with this knowledge

samstave
0 replies
20h49m

(I havent read the other comments yet - so forgive if this is a dupe request):

May you please do the same from a hiring employee's perspective, in such a manner where, the Founding Folks can use this to understand their funding, then also understand what it means to bring on Founding Engineer, Founding Sales, etc... and then all the child departments and their impact in liquidity/stock/options RSIs etc?

And then have an ELI35 print out for the Prospectives?

rubymamis
0 replies
13h32m

Awesome, pretty UI.

I've been using Note Genie[1].

[1] https://notegenie.io/

rogerthis
0 replies
21h16m

Well, I can only add founders and get 100/#(founders). It looks bugged.

rgrieselhuber
0 replies
18h41m

An option to sell after the Safes would be good.

reducesuffering
0 replies
21h57m

Should put a button that plugs in default scenarios like YC, typical series A, B, etc.

ptxds
0 replies
13h10m

Great tool!

pgt
0 replies
10h19m

The Plus button looks like it will add another founder. Couldn't figure out how to get to next step for a while, adding & removing founders. Consider just showing the possible actions right there, not having to click on the buttons.

Also, on landing page, just go straight into the New Startup screen so you don't have to click "New Startup" since there is no other option when you have none listed.

Was looking for a "Run Simulation" button, but it was not at all obvious that I should hover over the blocks added to see the "output". Just show the output on-screen :).

parkaboy
0 replies
1d

This is SO awesome! Great work! This is really nice for getting a quick ball-park idea on strategy or getting up and running on the early-side.

This is MUCH cleaner/nicer than e.g. Carta's simulation tool. My co-founders and I will definitely be using this.

Thank you for putting this together.

nodesocket
0 replies
20h48m

I've been playing with some test numbers and end of the day if you start with a single founder and exit, the single founder take is significantly lowered by adding co-founders. I mean, makes sense the math, but still shocking the results.

SAFE raise $750k, cap $4m

Series A raise $8m, val $40m, options 10%, pro-rata

Series B raise $20m, val $100m, options 10%, pro-rata

Exit $300m

Single founder keeps 49% of equity which is $147m. Three founders each keeps 16% and $49m.

nilsbunger
0 replies
21h6m

Love the UI. Good educational tool for founders.

If only building the company and going through all those funding rounds was as easy!

nexuist
0 replies
19h8m

This is cool! Could we get an IPO option? Maybe there can be a way to set how the market responds and see how that directly impacts your net worth as a founder.

naltroc
0 replies
23h6m

I've been moonlighting for a few years on a digital product I'd like to sell. People often ask if I want to get funding, and I always say NO.

Completely disregarding the ownership complications that arise, just a few clicks in to your webapp (super nice work btw) shows how much bloated knowledge you need.

Does it make sense for early stage startups to hire a CFO to make sense of all these things? Absolutely not. So better make sure your angel package includes their budget. /s

Funding isn't there for your best interest, it's there to make other people money. It lets you borrow time, and you still work for someone else.

very well done site though, maybe i will be smart enough to use it some day.

mvkel
0 replies
12h11m

Fantastic project.

Very illustrative for new founders to learn how much revenue they'll need to generate to see any useful return if they raise venture money.

To that end, I'd add some of the more annoying aspects of priced rounds, like liq pref, etc

lettergram
0 replies
22h54m

I love this, though few thoughts

1. Enable multiple branches to show different simulations

2. Allow me to save it and share it via a link

krm01
0 replies
22h47m

Niceee. Reminded me of www.sillycovalley.com

kaoutar2024
0 replies
20h38m

Good job

jiveturkey
0 replies
13h0m

- Only post-money safes and priced rounds.

pretty limiting. will keep my eye on this.

jbverschoor
0 replies
8h1m

It was very rewarding to get the congratulations and confetti when I became a decamillionaire on the sim. Mission accomplished.

Jokes aside, it's actually a pretty good tool

jacquesm
0 replies
23h51m

Very nice work, this will help to play through different scenarios. It might be worth it to show that different industries have very different up front capital requirements and that for instance a template for doing a hardware startup has rough indications of how much of the total funding is required at which stage of the venture.

This is where I see a lot of people make - very costly - mistakes in terms of dilution, they start a hardware startup or some other capital intensive track but use SaaS levels of capital requirement and timing to plan their liquidity. This obviously can impact the business in very negative ways (or can even cause it to go under). So to inject some realism into the figures at various phases using templates might be a useful thing.

Another thing you may want to consider is to put sweat equity and funds supplied by the founders in there, as well as a way to administer friends-and-family rounds, and to be able to play through a founder departing scenario. I realize those are complex things to do, and obviously you're under no obligation to do any of this.

Thank you for making this and for putting it out there.

iamnafets
0 replies
22h6m

Should add liquidation preferences and allow sales below the last priced round. Seem to be more common these days!

iamandoni
0 replies
22h1m

Wow what a great tool! Intuitive and clean interface with realistic default equity investments/option pools. Also I love to see more and more svelte projects popping up. Really exciting seeing its growing adoption :)

happytiger
0 replies
21h0m

This is a great start. I really enjoyed the UI. Definitely needs the educational hints for people who are newbies, but that is obvious and you probably already have it on your roadmap.

All-in-all quite cool.

gempir
0 replies
6h16m

It would be cool if you could "import" companies into this and have like a public library of various companies and better understand what they did.

That would make learning about a company way more interactive. Although I'm not versed enough in startup culture to know how much of this data is even public.

gdsdfe
0 replies
23h9m

Dreams are free like they say :)

eigenvalue
0 replies
23h33m

Very cool and has a nice, easy interface. Would be awesome if you could assign time intervals to the vertical lines connecting events, and then at the end you could show the IRR and multiple on invested capital for each participant (except where that doesn't make sense, like for employees). Would also be nice if it had reasonable assumptions for fixed costs such as lawyer fees for each round, or investment banking fees for the exit sale.

deadbabe
0 replies
22h13m

This app needs a better zero state. It should start with a fully loaded company, maybe based on a real example, that you could edit and see the subtle differences. Then, when you’re ready, start a new simulation from scratch.

codyZ
0 replies
2h27m

This is nothing sort of amazing. Great f*cking work. No exaggeration - this almost brought tears to me...

asah
0 replies
4h44m

Nice! Super timely for a friend's startup, whose CEO was getting all confused about dilution.

Thank you!!

andrewstuart
0 replies
14h31m

I added some elements but didn’t know what to do next.

ackbar03
0 replies
12h26m

Would also be cool if you have some templates for some typical series of funding rounds all the way to the exit in different industries, which we can just load and see (fantasize about) the possible trajectories.

a_rain1
0 replies
11h35m

This is a wonderful example of identifying a problem that current solutions overlook. As an emerging company lawyer, this is something we do constantly, albeit in excel form or through conversations with founders. Carta and others are great at creating efficiencies for scale, but sometimes these simple problems go unsolved. Kudos for building this, and never hurts to get lawyer input which might help with development and certain complex challenges! Awesome start!

HDogueto
0 replies
23h4m

Holly! loving the UI !!

FergusArgyll
0 replies
23h51m

Simple, easy to use, very nice

Fawlty
0 replies
19h43m

It’s cool that you’ve built it! It truly gets complicated, especially when at later stage you start getting venture debt (not safes), more demanding LiqPref and you’re facing an exit at a price which is not ideal. Tbh I usually end up with bespoke excel files for each company to have a full understanding of waterfall for all parties and be able to simulate their payout and incentives at different exit price. But I’m sure even this tool can be helpful - if you need any help with that, lmk!

DonHopkins
0 replies
23h19m

Where's the button to negotiate using hostility and rudeness?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6Zz-Nkkaxc

CafeRacer
0 replies
22h38m

I lost :-D

AznHisoka
0 replies
23h21m

How did you decide on the “default” valuation based on funding? Is it based on historical numbers?

Aeolun
0 replies
17h36m

I’m a bit put out that this implies the only way for a startup to end is by selling out.

How about if we go for an IPO and then generate profits?

4d4m
0 replies
21h15m

Consider an embeddable version of this for incubators to license!!