This is fascinating. It's like a more complex game of life than John connoway's. It's crazy that little creatures seem to form at such small scales easily with these parameters. It's almost like the parameters of our real universe intentionally made it difficult to form life, rather than easy as some people seem to think.
There's no reason to believe life is particularly rare in the universe either, though.
There are, in fact, reasons to believe that. Nothing definitive of course. But the fact that we haven't been absorbed by a von neumann swarm or something like it places strict limits on the prevalence of life and/or what stages that life can achieve. One would either have to belive that intelligent life is vastly less likely than non-intelligent life, or that life itself is quite rare, or that life simply hasn't been around for much longer than life on earth.
I don't see not being eaten by a swarm of machines as evidence of anything - but it is interesting to me that you'd qualify all this with "or what stages that life can achieve". So simple life could be extraordinarily commonplace, and considering the context of this post...
It is a fact that we haven't been eaten by a swarm of anything. Facts are evidence. If you don't understand that, I don't think we'll be having a productive or fun converstion. Sound more like you're interested in making innane snarky comments to fuel your own ego. Good luck with that.
Would you like to actually address the point I made about simple life?
If you made a point about that, it was not clear to me. Perhaps you were implying that simple life could be very common even if intelligent life isn't. While yes, that is a possibility, that says nothing of its probability. Were that the circumstance, it leaves the question open as to why simple life would be common but intelligent life not common.
I'm just a bit confused as to why the subject of intelligent life is the focus here, considering the context of this post is basic cellular life.
As to why simple life would be more common than complex life... that seems obvious to me: simple systems are easier to emerge from chaos than complex ones.
From a cellular perspective, human cells are not really more complex than smaller multi-cellular organisms like amoebas.
Give the huge advantage that intelligence has for natural selection in complex environments, why would intelligent life not arise from simple life? It's not obvious.
That's a very limited and poor perspective. Yes, individual human cells are no more complex than others, but that doesn't encompass the entire system that has to emerge. A human being is - obviously, I would think - a far more complex system than a simple amoeba.
You missed the point. What's the barrier to stop simple organisms from developing into more complex and eventually intelligent systems? There's no delineation between "intelligent" and "simple" life. It's a smooth fitness landscape that evolution would (arguably) climb over time.
Evolution doesn't always work like that though. There's a fair bit of luck involved. You're right that 'intelligence' would certainly help an organism survive, but that is hardly a guarantee.
That seems like a valid belief. Getting to a technological stage such that a species would be detectable over the vast distances of space could indeed be quite rare. You have to also consider the temporal aspect: intelligent, technologically advanced species may have evolved several times but gone extinct before we could notice them. Do other technically advanced species exist in the universe? Probably, but it could be that at any given time there might only be about 1 in any given galaxy and the distances between galaxies are great enough that we'd never likely be able to make contact. (and ~1 per galaxy would still mean that there would be a whole lot of intelligent species out there - it's just that it would be extremely difficult to make contact with any of them)
Its not at all clear in general. It might be true. But it also might not. It seems quite reasonable to believe that life inevitably evolves into intelligent life if given enough time. Why some life would and some life wouldn't isn't at all clear.
All the potential answers to the Fermi Paradox, for sure. But it would almost definitely have to be species that never got to the "expand rapidly into other solar systems" phase.
This doesn't preclude us knowing about that 1. If it got to earth at any time in the last billion years, we might have a pretty high chance of discovering it if it existed on earth for any significant legnth of time.
From what we have seen on Earth, it does not seem inevitable. Dinosaurs were the largest land animals for a very long time and they did not, as far as we know, evolve towards being more intelligent. The same seems to be true for many other animal groups that have been around for a long time.
They don't seem to have created any technology, but it is hard to know how intelligent they were. Their brains were small, but crows have quite small brains and they are relatively intelligent. If dinosaurs had used tools, would this show up in the fossil record?
The belief that intelligent life isn't inevitable is not inconsistent with the belief that intelligent life usually will happen from any life given enough time. Why are you positioning those things as opposed? They are not.
It's certainly not a given that our species will ever do that or that we'll last long enough to do that.
Let's say we're the 1 currently in the milky way galaxy. There could be another in the closest galaxy the Canis Major Dwarf Galaxy which is 25,000 light years away. But being able to detect a signal from 25,000 light years away... well, that's the problem. And what if they're just getting to the point where they could transmit a signal now? So maybe in 25,000 years we'd notice something... maybe? (if we're still around) As far as physically traveling 25,000 ly, well we know that even trying to go 1 ly is going to be super difficult technically. Similar problems even if there's an intelligent species on the other side of our own galaxy since it's 52K ly across.
There is no evidence that space travel is practical or sustainable. The only viable spaceship known to man is Earth, and we don’t steer it.
Maybe there are lots of earth-like planets with intelligent beings, but travel is impossible and communication is useless given the time delay.
It's not hard to believe that we could make self replicating drones in the next 100 years that go from system to system, make a few more, and continue. We've already sent drones out of our solar system. They don't have to go fast. They'd still visit every system in the known universe in a "relatively" small amount of time. (relative to the age of the known universe).
Turns out that the great filter was something as mundane as interstellar travel being impractical.
I think it's reasonable to say that we could probably build a fleet of ships containing tardigrades in their dried-out tun state (which is biologically inert, up to tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and extremely resilient to radiation and vacuum), launch them with enough mass to reach a nearby (up to 10 LY at 0.001c?) solar system with a planet that has water, and deliver the payload to the water, such that the tardigrades would revert to their normal living state.
It would cost a lot of money. It would take a very long time (hundreds of thousands of years). Nobody alive today would see the results. There are any number of systematic and non-systematic failures that could occur. building things that work autonomously for 100Kyears is nontrivial. Even if you succeeded- say, 100Kyears from now, one out of a thousand of your samples crash-lands onto a remote planet and revives- congratulations, you've maybe just contaminated an otherwise unknown ecosystem.
The story gets more interesting if earth has fusion, stable government and research funding, then you could make humans into tuns that can travel for 10K years, and have advanced propulsion (.01-.1c), pre-deliver full infrastructure...
Saying there is "no evidence" is factually absurd. There are a whole host of possibilities for practical long distance space travel. At very least for small light-weight robots. And it even seems possible that we can viably transport our entire solarsystem: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3y8AIEX_dU . No evidence indeed... only if you lack imagination.
I honestly believe that high intelligence while short term is extremely advantageous, long term it is self-destructive.
I like to imagine there are countless planets with perfect ecosystems of living organisms where no single species dominates whole planet.
There is no such thing as a perfect ecosystem because we live in an imperfect universe, this is if you look at any significant timescale. Eventually you're going to get hit by an asteroid or a gamma ray burst, or some mega volcano is going to pop and cause world wide levels of destruction. And generally we see some reestablishment species is going to dominate for some time.
I'm curious what makes you think that. That is, of course, one of the general solutions put forth to the fermi paradox. Ie either the species develops species killing weapons (like nukes) or individuals gain massively destructive weapons. But I find these things unlikely. Even exploding all of our existing nukes in the most devastating locations would not destroy humanity or the earth. We'd bounce back - tho if such an event is inevitable, perhaps we would ride an endless wax and wane between devastating destruction events every 1000 years.
There are a number of possibilities, which depends upon what methods of interaction we are looking at.
For example, with direct contact, we can estimate a probability of life along side how possible space travel is. Perhaps space travel isn't easy or fast at all and so there is plenty of life, but it is mostly stuck to its solar systems and maybe a few neighboring stars. Overall, given that we can send and receive signals much easier than we can send and receive space crafts, I think this isn't as useful a metric.
The better one is that we don't see signals from other life elsewhere, but this still has to be measured by how likely life elsewhere would be able to see our signals.
Lastly, there is the matter of what it means to be rare. Say only 2 or 3 planets in a given galaxy end up developing intelligent life, is that rare? Given the number of galaxies in the visible universe, that is hundreds of billions if not trillions of planets with intelligent life. Yet with only 2 or 3 in a galaxy, it would be easy for us to not see any signs because maybe we are the only ones in our galaxy or our galactic neighbors are on the other side of the milky way and we have no technology to communicate, nor will we for the near future. Hundreds of billions of intelligent species can be considered both rare and not rare given the sorts of scales we are talking about.
Also other edge cases, like maybe intelligent life is common enough but it tends to rarely progress past a certain point of development due to wiping itself out. Personally, every explanation I've heard or can think of has some sort of unpleasantness to it, much like the quote that says either we are alone or we aren't alone, and both ideas are scary in their own ways.
Except we have excellent knowledge about lower bounds on how easy and fast space travel can be. And its plenty fast enough to explore the entire galaxy on geological timescales. Voyager 1 is traveling at 17 km/s which would take it 1 light year every 17,700 years. Given that the galaxy is 100,000 light years across, that means that Voyager 1 could travel across the galaxy in 1.7 billion years. A spaceship built for that purpose would take vastly less time.
Voyager weighed less than 800 kg. Using the [rocket equation](https://www.omnicalculator.com/physics/ideal-rocket-equation) and a realistic exhaust velocity for methane/oxygen of 3280 m/s, you can see that you could accelerate a voyager 1 sized craft to 3000 m/s with about 1200 kg of fuel, which is less than $1 of fuel, no joke (https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/02/spacex-reusable-rocket...). Of course it takes a lot of money to just get that fuel into orbit: $1500/kg with a falcon heavy. But that means you could send a voyager-1-sized craft to space with the fuel it needs to achieve 3000 km/s for a mere $3 million (not including the cost of the craft itself). And harvesting methane and oxygen on smaller planets would bring down that cost by a lot.
At that speed, the craft could cross the entire galaxy in 9.6 million years. A blink of an eye on geological timescales. And if we really cared enough to spend more than a couple million dollars on this thing, we could get it there orders of magnitude faster using propulsion systems way less shitty than a methane-oxygen rocket.
With just 1% of the energy the sun outputs in a single second, you could accelerate 100 voyager 1s to 1% the speed of light.
In short, if you think space travel is a barrier, you're plainly very wrong. Even with today's technology we could send machines throughout the galaxy in a pretty short period of time. In the near future, that time will drastically reduce.
And yet there are vastly larger motivations for sending a spacecraft than sending a signal. You might not be aware that nearly all radio signals that escape the earth are not powerful enough to be detectable above noise further than 1/2 a light year out. https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/questions/33939/when-do-...
There's no reason to believe we should be able to detect alien radio signals unless they are intentionally aimed at us and meant for us. Also, you can't see a radio signal that passed by 1 million years ago. Whereas you certainly would be able to see evidence of a von neumann swarm having done that.
Whether anyone would consider that "rare" or not is irrelevant. The puzzle would be: if even ONE intelligent speicies existed out there more than several million years ago, why haven't we seen evidence of their space craft?
Yes, this is of course the premise of usual solutions to the fermi paradox. However, those solutions are often either "maybe nukes will destroy us" or "maybe something we don't know about yet will". Neither are super satisfactory as answers.
Haven't we been? When I look all around, the whole place is simply crawling with self-replicating machines and some of them even got to a point of making first attempts to leave this planet to infect a new one.
They are less creatures than molecules. Now, mind you, as some complex sets of rules approach steady state I can pretend they are far-flung stellar empires with colors ascribed to each type of system of government (and have).
What is fooling you is the motion. This is sustained because the system has no conservation principles built in. You can make A-B pairs where B is attracted to A, A is repelled by B, and off they go, zoom. Were the meta-rules devised such that conservation of energy or momentum and such were baked in to whatever system you devised, you would see less exciting structures which would more resemble a late-stage pentamino explosion in the Game of Life.
With a sufficiently large processor, I would like to see this in three dimensions and more options for force, such as dropping off as the inverse of r or r-cubed or even r * log(r), or some "repulsive at a distance, attractive at very close quarters" particles. I have a feeling that such a system would grind to a halt even with clever optimizations.
This already does look like it has falloff... mutual attractors clearly seem more attracted to nearby particles than to larger groups further away.
I assume it falls off at inverse of r squared, which is why the person you're replying to is mentioning other functions besides that one.
I read them differently.
>> I have a feeling that such a system would grind to a halt even with clever optimizations.
I took this to mean that they thought there was no falloff calculated at all. If there is, I don't see why substituting a different function, e.g. cube vs square, would be significantly more CPU-intensive.
You focused on just one clause. Consider the whole:
1) Three dimensions, not two. Therefore distance is not the square root of (delta-x * delta-x + delta-y * delta-y) but the cube root of (delta-x * delta-x + delta-y * delta-y + delta-z * delta-z). More operations.
2) Three dimensions, not two. As you start increasing the number of dimensions, the simulation feels more and more empty. One hundred particles on a line a thousand units long is crowded. One hundred particles on a grid of one thousand by one thousand feels like more "room" for that same number of particles. In a volume of a thousand by a thousand by a thousand, one hundred particles feels too few, and one would naturally increase the number of particles. Naively, which is to say without optimizations, the number of force computed grow as N-squared. More operations.
3) Cube falloff goes by r * r * r, rather than r * r. More operations, by fifty percent. And I did suggest some more exotic functions in there which certainly could be more daunting.
No, it is still a square root. The term under the root is correct, but distance in N dimensions (assuming euclidian space) is just sqrt(sum(delta-n ^ 2))
Hah, you're right. Serves me for typing late at night.
Oh, there's one of those too! I don't see ways to change the falloff though, just the magnitude...
https://hunar4321.github.io/particle-life/particle_life_3d.h...
need analog computer for that :)
Ah that's interesting, I can see how that would result in a lot more dynamic behavior.